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Mike Caro: THe truth about AA. NL.

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Ragnar4

01-09-2008, 05:27 AM Post subject: Mike Caro: THe truth about AA. NL.

#1 (permalink)

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Quote:

Despite common advice, you do not want to raise with aces in order to chase players out of the pot before the flop in hold'em. That pair of aces usually makes you as much money or more with extra opponents chasing you. That doesn't mean you shouldn't raise, you're usually do hoping opponents will call, not fold.

Thinning the field has its moments, but, contray to what you've heard, raising with aces before the flop for that purpose isn't one of them.

Discuss

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

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SGTChuck

01-09-2008, 06:12 AM

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AHHHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Come to the 5-10 NL game in my town and don't raise with aces, you're just asking for it. Although half the time you can raise $100.00 and they're still calling ya with J7 suited.
Or they're raising with all kinds of garbage and small pairs.
ACTION ACTION ACTION

AlphaKennyBody

01-09-2008, 07:14 AM Post subject: Re: Mike Caro: THe truth about AA. NL.

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Quote:

Despite common advice, you do not want to raise with aces in order to chase players out of the pot before the flop in hold'em. That pair of aces usually makes you as much money or more with extra opponents chasing you. That doesn't mean you shouldn't raise, you're usually do hoping opponents will call, not fold.

Thinning the field has its moments, but, contray to what you've heard, raising with aces before the flop for that purpose isn't one of them.

Discuss

I'm sorry, but if I'm BB and the whole table limps to me, I'm not going to check.

Sheetah

01-09-2008, 09:46 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Unless you are a sick hand reader reverse implied odds will pawn you. Not to mention variance and tilt issues since aces aren't gonna win that often in multiway pots ...

JUST RAISE THAT MOTHER******* ACES!!!

Sheetah

01-09-2008, 09:50 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Also, strategical approach of blindly relying on math and math only instead of exploiting opponent's tendencies (along w/ math, of course) is poor poker.

Deuce Blue

01-09-2008, 01:48 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Great advice. If you want to start a whole new web site simply devoted to cracked aces.

"You won't believe this bad beat, I have pocket aces in a 7 way pot and some donk hits a straight. INSANE"!! Online poker is RIGGED I tell ya!!! "

Warpe

01-09-2008, 02:07 PM

#7 (permalink)

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He's not saying you shouldn't raise. He's just saying you should do it for the right reason.

pgil

01-09-2008, 02:40 PM

#8 (permalink)

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I think this would be a good example. A couple of things to note, my two opponents yet to act are insanely bad, my initial raise was larger than I would normally make because the button will call almost anything, and note stack sizes.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($98)
Button ($31.35)
SB ($35.70)
BB ($54.50)
UTG ($141)
UTG+1 ($52.85)
MP1 ($192.50)
MP2 ($90)
MP3 ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, A

.
5 folds, Hero raises to $4, Button calls $4, SB calls $3.50, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $14, Button calls $14, SB calls $14.

Flop: ($72) 9

, T

, 5

(4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $36.5 (All-In), Hero calls $36.50, Button calls $13.35 (All-In), SB calls $17.70 (All-In).

Turn: ($138.45) T

(4 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($138.45) 7

(4 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: $176.05

"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce

Deuce Blue

01-09-2008, 02:48 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Granted you don't want everyone folding, but I also I'm going to raise enough to get SOME people out of the action. It's a fine line with the rockets. Different then the pocket K's, then I'm happy if everyone gets the hell out. j/k

I guess what he was saying was you want to build the pot with that hand, but to do this you need to raise which hopefully in turn will chase out the J-K sooooted crowd. Seems like common sense to me but maybe he is on some deeper tangent and I haven't had enough coffee.

Funny little story on pocket aces. In a MTT, 10 people per table. I'm in the BB and get the rockets. So I'm trying to decide how I'm going to bet this when it gets around to me as I watch each person fold all the way around. My grin begins to shrink, the blinds are still pretty low so it gets down to the SB and I think, well, at least I can try and get something out of this. The SB pauses for a moment, then folds. My god, 9 people and can't even get a limper. I've been folded to when I have had A-A but I think this was the first time on a full table and low blinds. Such a bummer.

Alright, so it wasn't that funny. As I said I haven't had enough coffee and I'm hopped up on alot of cold medicine so everything seems funny to me.

Go_Indy

01-09-2008, 03:10 PM

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This sounds reasonable to me. The goal here is to get maximum money out, not maximum chance of winning the hand. I did a quick calculation, (which is conceivable I messed up), and for any amount of players, the EV went up for each player. Now, it did start to level off, so possible the small gain in EV at that point might not be worth the hair pulling, but it WAS still going up.

Sure, more players means Aces get cracked more often, no argument. However, more players means the pots you win are much higher.

I mean, take the example someone said whole table limps. Ok, lets say you raise ALL IN, and everyone at table calls. From a financial point of view, this is the absolute best thing that could happen. Any person who folds to the bet increased your chance of winning the hand, but also lowered the amount possible to win.

SGTChuck

01-09-2008, 04:49 PM

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[quote="Go_Indy"]
I mean, take the example someone said whole table limps. Ok, lets say you raise ALL IN, and everyone at table calls. From a financial point of view, this is the absolute best thing that could happen.

Huh? I've never run this scenario out on a computer but I did do it with a deck of cards. AA vs 9 random hands I think the aces might have won once out of 10 deals. I'm not sure I like the financial rammifications of winning only 1 out of 10 times.

Pythonic

01-09-2008, 04:56 PM

#12 (permalink)

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I like cold calling big preflop raises with AA 2 or 3 handed to trap but nothing else.

Never bet on a white man in the heavyweight division!

Pythonic

01-09-2008, 04:56 PM

#13 (permalink)

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I like cold calling big preflop raises with AA 2 or 3 handed to trap but nothing else limping is suicide.

Never bet on a white man in the heavyweight division!

Pythonic

01-09-2008, 04:56 PM

#14 (permalink)

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I like cold calling big preflop raises with AA 2 or 3 handed to trap but nothing else but limping is suicide.

Never bet on a white man in the heavyweight division!

Go_Indy

01-09-2008, 06:31 PM

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SGTChuck:
Here are the numbers as I see them...
Opps 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
85.3 73.4 63.9 55.9 49.2 43.6 38.8 34.7 31.1

Now, I didn't calculate these myself, but they look pretty reasonable. So, with 9 people calling, your odds of winning is what appears to be a paltry 31.1%. However, on those 31.1%, you'll win 9 times your money. (In this fictional world of 9 callers)

I find it borderline fantastic you think aces have a 1/10 chance of winning against 9 random hands. What hand do you think scores higher than Aces?

jyms

01-09-2008, 06:41 PM

#16 (permalink)

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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.934% 48.52% 00.41% 2101608 17922.83 { AA }
Hand 1: 10.202% 09.55% 00.65% 413582 28302.33 { random }
Hand 2: 10.238% 09.59% 00.65% 415432 28033.83 { random }
Hand 3: 10.199% 09.56% 00.64% 413992 27762.67 { random }
Hand 4: 10.225% 09.58% 00.65% 414830 28058.42 { random }
Hand 5: 10.201% 09.56% 00.65% 413898 27971.92 { random }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.593% 33.24% 00.35% 960431 10210.39 { AA }
Hand 1: 08.276% 07.50% 00.78% 216700 22440.31 { random }
Hand 2: 08.305% 07.54% 00.77% 217754 22209.47 { random }
Hand 3: 08.316% 07.54% 00.77% 217980 22302.89 { random }
Hand 4: 08.293% 07.52% 00.77% 217320 22305.89 { random }
Hand 5: 08.296% 07.52% 00.77% 217396 22306.06 { random }
Hand 6: 08.309% 07.53% 00.78% 217581 22496.39 { random }
Hand 7: 08.296% 07.53% 00.77% 217536 22184.14 { random }
Hand 8: 08.315% 07.54% 00.77% 217960 22309.47 { random }

He didn't say don't raise, he said to raise has it's moments, and this is one of them, you need to raise, but keep players around to play post flop.

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Chopper

01-09-2008, 06:47 PM

#17 (permalink)

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at a 10NL table, NEVER limp your AA.

at a 25NL table, NEVER limp your AA.

at your home game, NEVER limp your AA.

at a table with Doyle, Daniel, et al, RARELY limp your AA.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Taxi

01-09-2008, 06:57 PM

#18 (permalink)

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I just played this hand and thought of this thread - ok, its a limp min re-raise, but w/e

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($178.66)
Button ($117.70)
SB ($227.91)
Hero ($151.63)
UTG ($101.50)
MP ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with

.
4 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $4.5, SB raises to $9, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($18)

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($18)

(2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1.

River: ($20)

(2 players)
SB bets $40, Hero raises to $117, SB calls $77.

Final Pot: $254

Results in white below:
SB has Ah Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Hero has Qd Kd (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $254.

SGTChuck

01-09-2008, 07:00 PM

#19 (permalink)

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[quote="Go_Indy"]SGTChuck:
[Here are the numbers as I see them...
Opps 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
85.3 73.4 63.9 55.9 49.2 43.6 38.8 34.7 31.1

Now, I didn't calculate these myself, but they look pretty reasonable. So, with 9 people calling, your odds of winning is what appears to be a paltry 31.1%. However, on those 31.1%, you'll win 9 times your money. (In this fictional world of 9 callers)

I find it borderline fantastic you think aces have a 1/10 chance of winning against 9 random hands. What hand do you think scores higher than Aces?]

Ha Ha I suck at math I was just running a couple hands with my deck now and they've won 3 times and been cracked 3 times. Just downloaded Poker Stove not sure if I can run it through there. Not sure where you got those numbers. The thing is 31 % of the time you win nine times your money but what if you're broke after the first time? lol

Miffed22001

01-09-2008, 07:05 PM

#20 (permalink)

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EricE

01-09-2008, 07:10 PM

#21 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Go_Indy

Ok, lets say you raise ALL IN, and everyone at table calls. From a financial point of view, this is the absolute best thing that could happen. Any person who folds to the bet increased your chance of winning the hand, but also lowered the amount possible to win.

I think everyone would be perfectly happy to get a 10 handed table All In Pre flop with AA. You got your money in with the best of it.

If you limp to invite callers or raise small the case is not so simple. The fact of the matter is that I am not good enough to tell (and sometimes there is zero indication) when you are beaten. So getting it All in on the flop or later means you may be getting the worst of it. That is the problem. AA is such a good hand that you want to maximize it but you also want the best of it. So the trade off is to raise PF enough to limit your opponents and still get enough value for your AA.

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

Chopper

01-09-2008, 09:12 PM

#22 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by EricE

I think everyone would be perfectly happy to get a 10 handed table All In Pre flop with AA. You got your money in with the best of it.

yes, but you still lose more than 50% of the time. you win less than 50% of the time when the 6th player enters the pot. your equity is below 75% when the 3rd enters. that is why you raise AA. you want to keep the random bullshit, that you cant read, down to minimum.

at higher levels, where players routinely raise and play some trash well, limping AA becomes more of a money maker. it throws them off your power and convinces the worst hand that he is best.

but, you still dont do it often. its more of a way to keep players off balance so you can get away with other "moves," too.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Pythonic

01-09-2008, 09:25 PM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricE

I think everyone would be perfectly happy to get a 10 handed table All In Pre flop with AA. You got your money in with the best of it.

Lets do the math here.
Example: 10 person table all with $10 stacks

Someone above said that you will win 31% of the time with aces against 10 people. I think that may be a little high but here is the math either way.

3 times you win = $300 (3*100)
The 7 times you lose = $70 (7*10)
Profit = $230!

Problem with the above though is that not everyone is gonna push there stack with garbage hands.

EricE

01-09-2008, 10:13 PM

#24 (permalink)

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Pushing PF with AA knowing every one is going to call is WAAAAY +EV. I can't imagine anyone thinking different.

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

jyms

01-10-2008, 12:55 AM

#25 (permalink)

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The point is, in the real world, the more hands that you let in with AA reduces your chances of winning, when all the money goes in. YOur never going to get all in vs 7 players, but you will get all in on the flop with 3, and what will they call with.

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Vrax

01-10-2008, 03:27 AM

#26 (permalink)

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The bigger number of opponents vs AA preflop will increase your winnings when you don't get outflopped, hold up and dodge all bluffs, semibluffs, but it'll be overal less EV compared to headsup pots and 3way pots. Your postflop decisions on semi scary multiway boards will be tougher and it's easier to make a bad push or bad fold. It correlates with postflop bet sizing, which will be bigger in multiway pots.

9 calls vs AA is great, 1-2 calls is also good, but 3-5 calls and getting popped on flop is gross.

"How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy

SGTChuck

01-10-2008, 03:44 AM

#27 (permalink)

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[/quote]

Lets do the math here.
Example: 10 person table all with $10 stacks

Someone above said that you will win 31% of the time with aces against 10 people. I think that may be a little high but here is the math either way.

3 times you win = $300 (3*100)
The 7 times you lose = $70 (7*10)
Profit = $230!

Problem with the above though is that not everyone is gonna push there stack with garbage hands.[/quote]

That's some good math Python maybe I can bet some of the donkeys around here to do that with me. lol
How bout this one. You take all 4 aces out of the deck let the other 9 players choose their hands secretly, knowing you will have aces, then randomly put 2 aces back into the deck. Shuffle up and run it out. Who wins then? What hand would you choose to go up against bullets?

Ragnar4

01-10-2008, 05:15 AM

#28 (permalink)

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The hand I would choose to go up against Bullets? Heads up? Any two suited, connected cards 45 through 89 that DON'T share my opponents suit for aces. AhAc, I take 6d7d.

Knowing other people would take the same deal? I'll bet all four JT's would be out of the deck in a heartbeat. So I would go 45.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

Technooo

01-12-2008, 05:09 AM Post subject: Re: Mike Caro: THe truth about AA. NL.

#29 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Quote:

Discuss

Mike Caro is correct. You should raise the maximum amount you think you are likely to get called on, not raise an amount that you think most of the table will fold to.

In vegas at $1/2, I was watching a nice TAGG play (she hit QQ, AA, and AKo in like 10 hands running), and she would routinely raise to $15 (7.5x) and get 2-3 callers, and this wasn't even the loosest joint in Vegas by far (green valley ranch, plenty of rocks). I was a little skeptical because she only started with about $50 in front of her ($200 max), but she pulled out something like $300 from those three hands.

Pelion

01-12-2008, 11:29 AM

#30 (permalink)

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That quote isnt about not raising aces. Its about raising them and hoping for lots of callers.

I disagree when theres plenty of money behind if your opponents are capable of folding postflop since you are going to be in a reverse implied odds situation where you have no idea where you are.

If you go allin preflop then you want lots of callers. Its better to have a 30% chance of winning 800bbs than a 80% chance of winning 100 bbs.

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

spoonitnow

01-13-2008, 12:27 AM

#31 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Warpe

He's not saying you shouldn't raise. He's just saying you should do it for the right reason.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.

Fnord

01-14-2008, 11:29 AM

#32 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

The more I play poker, the more relevent Caro becomes.

Flat-calling Aces is under-rated.

Basically, with Aces you want to build a big pot pre-flop, then generally plan on committing. If someone else wants to set-up a low SPR for you, then why blow them out of the pot?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

martindcx1e

01-16-2008, 08:33 AM

#33 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warpe

He's not saying you shouldn't raise. He's just saying you should do it for the right reason.

for real geez ppl cool out

Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.

lean86

02-18-2008, 06:35 PM

#34 (permalink)

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I like to do the minimal raise, 2BB's. Depending on the flop, i can bet the pot-size (flush-draw coming) or i can throw a small bet if its rainbow and unconnected cards (dream flop!). Usually, i like controlling the size of the pot with aces. If i see a draw on the felt, then i'll raise to protect, but not to drive people off. Just the amount that makes it mathematically incorrect for them to call.

If i get reraised, i'll re-raise the minimal amount. Usually enough to drive people off and isolate me and the raiser. There's even a chance he might push it after getting raised again, if he's got K-K or he's a donk.

biondino

02-18-2008, 07:01 PM

#35 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by lean86

I'm not remotely a good player, but if I see you doing this you are getting so little of my stack when you hit aces. Unless I have KK maybe.

lean86

02-18-2008, 07:08 PM

#36 (permalink)

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Well, im not too experienced at this, im just telling what i do. Any tips would be appreciated, really.

Keilah

02-18-2008, 09:04 PM

#37 (permalink)

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Getting all-in with aces against multiples is great. Playing a flop with aces against multiples sucks. It's mostly hands that beat you that will be putting more money in the pot.

riverturnflop

03-02-2008, 03:20 PM

#38 (permalink)

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Mike Caro doesn't know wtf he's talking about.

dev

03-02-2008, 08:55 PM

#39 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

The more I play poker, the more relevent Caro becomes.

QFT.

nb: this is far more relevant than "Caro sucks" or people with difficulty reading talking about how bad it is to limp aces.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Basically, with Aces you want to build a big pot pre-flop, then generally plan on committing. If someone else wants to set-up a low SPR for you, then why blow them out of the pot?

So I don't know what SPR is... I googled it:
SPR (SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS H)
The Society for Pediatric Radiology
Stop Prisoner Rape <---------- my favorite
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
etc., etc.
I don't think any of these is what Fnord meant.

BostonGuy

03-08-2008, 12:49 PM

#40 (permalink)

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This is completely dependent on the people you are playing against. If you have someone that is likely going to call a raise then I raise if Im in early position and there is a very loose player that I think will raise, I may just call

jmontis

03-09-2008, 10:22 PM

#41 (permalink)

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What Fnord said. Some of his tips have helped me crush games that I used to struggle in. Some people are so fuckin terrified of deviating from the supposed TAG style that is so worshipped for beating low stakes, it's sickening.

Quote:

Originally Posted by riverturnflop

Mike Caro doesn't know wtf he's talking about.

actually grasshopper, he does, and i've seen him do it with my own eyes spectating games he's played in at Doylesroom years ago.

He would make the 50-100 and 150-300 regulars his bitches there.. games a lot of people struggle to breakeven in.

He's saying you don't raise to "thin the field". He's saying you should try doing what will maximize your expectation. Yes, i know it's difficult to try a bit of reasoning while playing to figure out what will help you get more money in the pot with aces, but give it a shot sometime.

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

pankfish

03-10-2008, 10:50 PM

#42 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dev

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

The more I play poker, the more relevent Caro becomes.

QFT.

nb: this is far more relevant than "Caro sucks" or people with difficulty reading talking about how bad it is to limp aces.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Basically, with Aces you want to build a big pot pre-flop, then generally plan on committing. If someone else wants to set-up a low SPR for you, then why blow them out of the pot?

stack

<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs

jyms

03-10-2008, 11:53 PM

#43 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2006

Posts: 4,836

Dev, It's stack to pot ratios. It's all explained in Professional NL. Basically(but not exactly), it's about setting up hands pre and postflop so that you have a certain amount of PSB's remaining on later streets, depending on whether you are playing a drawing hand that requires deep pot/implied odds or TPTK hands that require getting it in and taking away those same odds.

YouTube - Classified - "Oh... Canada" [Official Video]

SirBank

04-04-2008, 04:28 PM

#44 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2008

Posts: 13

Quote:

Originally Posted by SGTChuck

TheSyphon

05-21-2008, 08:48 PM

#45 (permalink)

Join Date: May 2008

Location: Reykjavik, Iceland

Posts: 59

Wow! I'm shocked that Pocket Rockets are a 31% favorite 10 handed.

Luckily, I don't think I've tried a family pot with rockets.

My experience is 2 players more, 3 max.

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