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Mid pp overpair vs. a shortstack

  
 
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Old 10-04-2008, 04:10 AM     Post subject: Mid pp overpair vs. a shortstack #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 35/21/4
I think he will stack off lightly because he's a shortstacker
So 77 or 99 here is most of his range. So is this a coinflip? Either I'm crushed or I crush him. 66 would suck, but he could also have something silly like AK

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5)
UTG ($23.30)
UTG+1 ($8.80)
Hero (MP1) ($25)
MP2 ($30.55)
MP3 ($7.55)
CO ($9.65)
Button ($36.85)
SB ($16.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8, 8
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) 5, 5, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $4, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $11.75 (All-In), Hero ?
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JinxT4
Old 10-04-2008, 06:36 AM #2 (permalink)  
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How did you narrow his range to exactly 77/99?

I'm assuming you called the flop b/c you thought you were good? If so, then ship it in on the turn I guess.

Fwiw, I'd fold to the flop c/r.
[04:18] <+Bbickes> do u has teh agoraphobia?
[04:18] <+fat> im agressive yes
 
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Old 10-04-2008, 07:44 AM #3 (permalink)  
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because he just called PF
but of course he could have 22, TT as well
but I think that he might repop TT preflop because I raised from the button at least some of the time

but I'm just saying a large part of his range is pps because two high cards wouldn't play this aggressively on the flop/turn
not sure if he would call a raise with a suited connector

so I would say there is like a "most often" range and "sometimes range"

most often:
77, 88 for tie, 99, 22, 55, 66
sometimes:
AKo, AQs, TT+, 33, 44

so for my "most often" range I have
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

880 games 0.015 secs 58,666 games/sec

Board: 2d 5c 2h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.864% 31.36% 02.50% 276 22.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 66.136% 63.64% 02.50% 560 22.00 { 99-55, 22 }


---

uhh not good

for my sometimes range I have

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,552 games 0.005 secs 510,400 games/sec

Board: 2d 5c 2h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.044% 44.04% 00.00% 1124 0.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 55.956% 55.96% 00.00% 1428 0.00 { TT+, 44-33, AQs, AKo }


---


So I guess I was just hoping he was out of line
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BankItDrew
Old 10-04-2008, 09:41 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 most of the time villain doesn't bluff.

here are your best options after the check raise:
fold
then
raise
then
call

you could click it back (min raise) to get a better idea of the hand you're up against

or you could fold.

the other option is to call and have villain check turn because his AK wiffed and he gave up.... this is very very rare though and not worth taking


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JinxT4
Old 10-04-2008, 10:40 AM #5 (permalink)  
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JinxT4
You say villain is 35/21, but put him on only premium hands b/c he "just called pf"?

Also, you messed up the board on your pokerstove calcs (not that it's really a big deal b/c 552 is close enough to 522).
[04:18] <+Bbickes> do u has teh agoraphobia?
[04:18] <+fat> im agressive yes
 
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Old 10-04-2008, 11:03 AM #6 (permalink)  
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no, I'm putting him on premium hands because he c/raised the flop and shoved the turn
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Clar17y
Old 10-04-2008, 05:12 PM     Post subject: Re: Mid pp overpair vs. a shortstack #7 (permalink)  
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Clar17y
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
I think he will stack off lightly because he's a shortstacker
This is something I am really trying to work on. I like to think short stackers stack off light but in reality they normally have a good hand here. I would fold.

Clar
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daven
Old 10-05-2008, 12:10 AM     Post subject: Re: Mid pp overpair vs. a shortstack #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
So 77 or 99 here is most of his range.
no it's not
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:03 AM     Post subject: Re: Mid pp overpair vs. a shortstack #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
So 77 or 99 here is most of his range.
no it's not
I'm overestimating by saying "most"
what do you think about the ranges I posted
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killerkebab
Old 10-06-2008, 02:24 AM #10 (permalink)  
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killerkebab
What is the thinking for calling this raise?

There isn't anything for you to draw to (beyond an 8, of course) but there are cards you really don't want to see (like A/K, maybe other big cards depending on how often this guy is calling raises with unpaired cards and how aggressive he usually is on flop). If you think you're ahead, raise - if you think you're crushed, give it up imo.
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