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The Merits of Ranking Straights over Flushes

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bigslikk

07-12-2006, 02:54 PM Post subject: The Merits of Ranking Straights over Flushes

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Chicago

Posts: 445

Flushes are easier to attain. Preflop, the chances of being dealt a couple of pretty suited cards are a little less than 1 in 4 (first card can be anything, second one needs to be from the 1/4 of remaining cards that match). Exact percentage is 23.5%. The probability of being dealt the primary cards for making straights, connectors, is a mere 15.7%.

Post flop, you have a 9.6% of flopping an 8-out straight draw (open-ended or double-barreled), while your suited cards have an 11% chance to flop four-to-the-flush. From there, the flush draw has 9 outs, roughly 36% and the 8 out straight draw is 32% to fill up. Indeed, on every street, the flush has the greater chance to improve, to be realized; however, if by some miracle they both make it, the flush wins. It should be obvious that a hand with a greater likelyhood of being made (the flush) should be ranked below one with a lesser likelyhood (quads, full house... straight

).

Now some of you purists, who have infinite faith in the way things are- because they are that way for a reason, they must be- skeptical of my entire argument, will soon find the necesssary flaws. I've only provided the odds for being dealt connecting cards and the odds of connectors to flop an 8-outer straight. I've neglected the straight-making possibilties of j7, j8, j9, qt, A5, etc.

However, the odds favoring straights are in the abstract and those favoring flushes remain in reality. Players in general, including donkeys, are much less likey to play possible straight-making offsuit rags (23, 26, 59, 6T, 48) then the suited rags. Decent players would even stray from Ace-wheel cards unless conditions were right (A2-A5 can be trouble). A couple of diamonds, though, a couple of nice spades- those are much more attractive and more likely to be played. Additionally, for suited cards, only one card is pertinent to the flush-hunters, give 'em K2s or A6s and they'll play. Thusly, if you played any two cards that could make a straight (there are many of them) and you stuck around until the river each time, then you might prove my argument wrong- your straight would come a few more times than any flush.

As an additional fact, flushes are made easier to make when more cards are added to each hand (In holdem and 7-card stud, you get seven cards instead of the original five). For example, if a game were invented in which there were a huge board, and hands ended up consisting of 17 cards, there would always be a flush but not necessariy a three-of-a-kind, a straight, or anything better. Thus flush odds are 100%, others <100.

Ac-Ad-2h-2s-3c-3d-4h-4s-6c-6d-7h-7s-8c-8d-9h-9s-jc (club flush)

Hero-at-a-home-game-last-night: 8c9c

flop: 5s-6d-7c

Villain: bets twice the pot

Hero:

You can't make that much money on a flopped flush, though.

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jackvance

07-12-2006, 03:01 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Posts: 2,910

jackvance is an unknown quantity at this point

I let 1 million random hands play to the river and 3% of them made flushes while 4.6% of them made straights, so I don't think your argument holds..

Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity

jyms

07-12-2006, 03:06 PM

#3 (permalink)

Tilting Mod

Join Date: Feb 2006

Posts: 4,836

I think that he's forgeting that a one card draw to a straight is only 4 outs. An open ended straight draw is 8. Not all draws to straights are OESD but all flushes are to the same 9 cards.

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Reidak

07-12-2006, 03:08 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2006

Location: Toronto

Posts: 566

Your quick math doesnt account for everything. Theres a reason why the rands are ranked this way. Your not the genius thats going to solve this non problem. Leave it alone and go read a poker book that makes sense. If your still adamant about this subject do the math when you flop 3 to a straight or flush.

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doctorgonzo

07-12-2006, 03:14 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2006

Location: Minneapolis, MN

Posts: 18

Poker hands are ranked according to how probable they are to appear. For an explanation see this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

Oh well, what can you do? It's all just Snakes on a Plane.
Percipio et pario

BowlinPinTim

07-12-2006, 03:33 PM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: None

Posts: 50

But i thought a high card hand was less likely to appear than 2 pair, which according to you would make it a better hand. Someone said that on that 2 pair vs. 3 of a kind post.

BowlinPinTim

07-12-2006, 03:36 PM

#7 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: None

Posts: 50

It was jackvance who said it:

jameseyb wrote:
I got my hopes up when I saw the possiblity of a straight v flush argument. Now I have to actually do some work! Damn you all!

I wanted to post about that too.. because when I started playing poker I actually thought straight>flush.. and it cost me a rather big pot to figure out it was the other way around. But I let some program simulate 250k hands and this came out:

straight flush .05%
four of a kind .17%
full house 2.53%
Flush 3%
Straight 4.6%
Three of a kind 4.85%
2p 23.67%
Pair 43.73%

So I guess they're all adequately placed in order of likelyhood.

(except high card.. it happens 17.4% so it should beat 2p!!!!)

pgil

07-12-2006, 03:59 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 1,103

but clearly high card is less likely to appear because it is the default hand. if you have nothing else, you have a high card hand. so the chances of making this hand are 100-the chances of making any actual hand. this does not mean that it should beat a pair or two pair.

"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce

Miffed22001

07-12-2006, 04:00 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Posts: 8,181

AA never loses

jameseyb

07-12-2006, 04:38 PM

#10 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2006

Location: Sapley, Cambs.

Posts: 169

Heh, if only it were so... I remember having the same Straight v. Flush argument walking down the road from Kings Cross with my mate Dan. Yes, flushes are "easier" to hit because of the greater number of outs.
I can also see where Bigslikk is going with his theory on cards of the same suit and I think he's right: People _will_ hold on to two suited bits of crap more often that unsuited connectors. However, there is always "The Curse" that I seem to have... If I hold two suited cards and decide to call, I will never make a flush with the reamining five cards, assuming I stay in.

That's my curse and it sucks!

Anyway, back to the point I was trying to make, or something. That's it... It's that straights are great for sneaking up on people. Flushes are easy to see, so if you are drawing to one, people can see it and you have to be careful not to scare them off. Straights just seem to come out of nowhere. Ok, you get a pair on board, or three suited cards and you are going to have to start thinking someone might get fruity with you, but if you are holding J9s and the cards on the table are 7K8T3 or similar, you could be on to a nice little earner if someone's made a pair of kings or two pair. Would you (assuming that you is actually your opponent) really see a straight in that junk?

J

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jackvance

07-12-2006, 05:11 PM

#11 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 2,910

Quote:

Originally Posted by BowlinPinTim

But i thought a high card hand was less likely to appear than 2 pair, which according to you would make it a better hand. Someone said that on that 2 pair vs. 3 of a kind post.

It is however the most likely one in 5-card poker.

Even in hold'em (7-card) to have "nothing" beat 1 or 2 pair is rather silly

. I added that conclusion as a little joke.

Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity

Lukie

07-12-2006, 06:22 PM

#12 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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swiggidy

07-12-2006, 06:36 PM

#13 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Location: Waiting in the shadows ...

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Theory:
Someone from another forum is making random accounts, then posting retarded threads. They hope to decrease the appeal of FTR, thus driving potential new members to some other site (ideally their own).

To anyone reading this post. If there is a math post by someone with less than 100 (maybe even 250) posts be very wary.

(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")

BowlinPinTim

07-12-2006, 07:08 PM

#14 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: None

Posts: 50

I understand that it is silly for high card to beat 2 pair, i was just stating that ALL hands are not ranked by their likelyness to occur, if this was true, no pair would beat 2 pair, im not saying it should be this way, thatd just be stupid.

bigslikk

07-12-2006, 08:46 PM

#15 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Chicago

Posts: 445

This post was indeed a joke- but I did want to point out how usually you see more flushes then straights at the showdown because a flush draw hits more often than an oesd and also because many more people chase the flush then the straight. I know that stastically the straight is made more often than the flush, but straight draws don't stand as much pressure as say, Ace-flush draws do, and so making a straight, is in my opinion, a rarer occurance merely because people won't put in too much money to chase 'em.

swiggidy

07-12-2006, 08:53 PM

#16 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Waiting in the shadows ...

Posts: 3,777

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigslikk

You forget to account for all the straights that are mucked because they loose to a flush. I bet that evens out your numbers

(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")

bigslikk

07-12-2006, 09:31 PM

#17 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Chicago

Posts: 445

I'd take that bet and win it.

Rockymv

07-12-2006, 10:25 PM

#18 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 1,177

spoonitnow

07-12-2006, 11:07 PM

#19 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: IRC Chat Room

Posts: 5,406

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

You obviously didn't eat breakfast.

jackvance

07-13-2006, 12:01 AM

#20 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 2,910

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You obviously didn't eat breakfast.

That's a definite leak.

Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity

jameseyb

07-13-2006, 02:57 PM

#21 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2006

Location: Sapley, Cambs.

Posts: 169

That happens before breakfast!

I was reading that bit about maths posts from people with less than 100 posts and was about to get on my high horse... Then I remembered that I am really bad at maths, so you're right! A good point and well made!

J

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Wooderson

07-18-2006, 04:09 AM

#22 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Ft. Worth, Tejas

Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

I've been eading threads on other forums I frequent all day looking for the right one to tag with this pic. Freakin' classic.

bigred

07-18-2006, 04:10 AM

#23 (permalink)

PROFESSIONAL TROLL

Join Date: Sep 2004

Location: Nest of Douchebags

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nh sir

LOL OPERATIONS

a500lbgorilla

07-18-2006, 01:00 PM

#24 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004

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Posts: 8,379

its an old old graph, i remember seeing it years ago

I had a graph about how far my foot was going up someones ass, it was original and funny.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

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The Merits of Ranking Straights over Flushes

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