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xX zorrito Xx
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01-25-2009, 07:48 PM
Post subject: meh turn...
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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no reads on villain... fifth hand of the session...
checking here to me is giving up the pot completely... lead out fold to aggression?..
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($6.40)
Hero (CO) ($11.25)
Button ($5.25)
SB ($6.30)
BB ($5.75)
UTG ($5.80)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 6 , 7
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, Button calls $0.30, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.75) 7 , 5, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, Button raises to $0.80, Hero raises to $1.90, Button calls $1.10
Turn: ($4.55) 6 (2 players)
Hero ...
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Going to have to ask what your thoughts were:
a. on your cbet size
b. on his raising range
c. on your flop 3bet and its size
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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i generally bet about half the pot or more depending on how i hit and if i think they'll fold... is this not enough?..
as far as his raising range in all honesty i thought he was raising me with top pair fair kicker at best and he put me on AQ AK AJ KJ things along that nature... and even if he did have top pair... i was still a big favorite to win...
am i not re raising enough?..
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by xX zorrito Xx
i generally bet about half the pot or more depending on how i hit and if i think they'll fold... is this not enough?..
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the are a lot of other factors that should go into determining your continuation bet size. Can you think of a few others?
Quote:
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and even if he did have top pair... i was still a big favorite to win...
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If you don't have pokerstove you should download it, you are NOT a big favorite to win the hand, it's a virtual coinflip if he has top pair.
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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is pokerstove free?..
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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yep
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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lol dude!!! thanks for bringing that to my attention....
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killerkebab
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 149
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As you can see this is a highly drawy flop. There are literally dozens of hands he could be holding that all hit a piece of this flop, such as sets, two pair combos if he calls with connectors, he could have a similar hand to yours (some sort of pair+draw type hand), flush draws (maybe two overs+flush, or pair+flush), maybe even overpairs. With this in mind, you have a choice to make. If you cbet here you cannot make it a small one unless you've flopped the nuts. Reason here is that with the huge amount of draws present, our villain is likely to call here with a huge range of hands and will get a chance to draw out on us cheaply. For this reason we want to be betting the full pot in this instance if we even bet at all. Try to think about what your re-raise does to our opponent's range on this flop - i.e: what cards is he continuing here with. I'm pretty sure that every hand that raises your cbet here... calls your re-raise. If we also factor in the fact that we're not even ahead of this range (see below), well we've eliminated all reasons for re-raising this flop. I'm not sure I'd fold, but I'm definitely not re-raising over him. I'm not sure I'm cbetting either, because our hand looks a lot prettier than it truly is. Sure, it is an open ended straight draw. Sure, we even have a pair to go with it. The problem is no matter how good your draw is it doesn't make you a favourite (15 out draws notwithstanding  ), and definitely isn't looking good if you don't hit on the turn (where your equity is cut in half if you miss). Take a look at our equity with a quick range I've compiled (it is quite a wide range but you said our opponent is unknown so we'll go with a wide range first):
Code:
70,290 games 0.005 secs 14,058,000 games/sec
Board: 7s 5s 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.448% 39.80% 04.65% 27975 3267.50 { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 55.552% 50.90% 04.65% 35780 3267.50 { JJ-77, 55, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, QsJs, JsTs, T9s, 9s8s, 87s, 76s, 4s3s, T9o, 87o, 76o }
Here I've assumed our villain wants to raise us with hands like flush draws with overcards, pair+flush draws, overpairs, and combo draws. As you can see we're not a favourite despite our tasty looking pair plus OESD. So if we're not a favourite we need to make more money once we hit to cover the fact we're taking the worst of it for now. What are our implied odds here if we hit? Villain will see four cards to a straight on an unpaired board with no flush possibilities (if we're lucky ), and unless he knows he can beat that he is unlikely to call us with much that we beat in my opinion. This ruins our implied odds, so we can't even draw our straight profitably.
Another problem is what do we do on scary turn cards like this one. Your straight draw has just been counterfeited, the flush draw has come in, a number of straight draws have now hit, and we've just hit two pair. The range we give our villain for raising us earlier is now totally crushing us. In fact I'm struggling to think of any hand in that range that we now beat with our two pair, as opposed to hands that have benifited from that card more than we have. From here I don't see how we can't check fold this turn. Our villain raised us on the flop with a very wide range, and almost all of this range is now killing us on the turn - except for hands like TT and JJ (if you really think he's raising these on the flop, or bigger overpairs if you think he just calls your raise with them). Look at how we fare against his range now:
Code:
3,036 games 0.005 secs 607,200 games/sec
Board: 7s 5s 8d 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.393% 15.68% 05.71% 476 173.50 { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 78.607% 72.89% 05.71% 2213 173.50 { JJ-77, 55, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, QsJs, JsTs, T9s, 9s8s, 87s, 76s, 4s3s, T9o, 87o, 76o }
We are well and truly crushed, and drawing to four outs (a full house in this instance). We have no choice but to give up here in my opinion, despite the fact that we have improved our hand.
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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yeah apparently i got lucky on this hand... villain had K 8 off
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