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Max_EV(KK)@10NL-FR?

  
 
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!Luck
Old 02-03-2010, 06:39 PM     Post subject: Max_EV(KK)@10NL-FR? #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 8/3/10 over 39 Hands (VP/PFR/3-B) (Re-Raiser)
Villain is 40/0/0 over 20 Hands

Preflop: Std Raise. When SB raises a preflop His range is really tight or he is bad, since 40 hands isn't big enough sample. Either way reraise all in will get value from AK,AA and QQ. Since I cannot be confident where I stand I thought the better way to go is call and may even get a caller behind. If the guy behind doesn't call me I will still have a SPR of 7, which isn't so bad for a strong overpair, if limper calls then my SPR of 5 makes this hand easy to play, which is dump it if an Ace comes, commit otherwise.

the cold caller calls. making the pot 3.7.

So am committed. I have the stone cold nuts and there are no draws besides 67,23, which are extremely unlikely giving preflop. This is where if I raise only AK, AA, and sets (which are unlikely except for the cold caller)

Calling here gets must value.
The turn is where I make a mistake: Giving how weak the small bet on flop check is, I risk very little as 67 is unlikely and the only Flush draw he can have is AQs. I think I should check value bet river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($11)
BB ($1.90)
UTG ($2)
Hero (MP1) ($10)
MP2 ($9.85)
CO ($7.60)
Button ($10.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, K
1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, CO calls $0.40, 1 fold, SB raises to $1.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.80, CO calls $0.80

Flop: ($3.70) K, 5, 4 (3 players)
SB bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60, 1 fold

Turn: ($6.90) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.10, 1 fold

Total pot: $6.90 | Rake: $0.30
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dranger7070
Old 02-03-2010, 07:01 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Flop and PF are both fine. Check the turn back. He can have JJ/QQ here a lot as well and you're just blowing him out of the pot. At the very least he will check the river and you can bet out. With stack sizes the way that they are you aren't really missing any value.

The only hands taht are calling you are AK/AA on this board as of now. Thats 14 combos. There's 12 combos of JJ/QQ. I mean, its a fine shove considering that more than half his range will be calling, but I think you can induce a bet or get him to call a bet with his weaker range if you check back the turn.
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darkconcept
Old 02-03-2010, 07:19 PM #3 (permalink)  

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not a fan of checking back the turn.

hes either: straight giving up with air (which youll never get a dime out of).. checking because he picked up equity, or pot controlling in which he always c/c's turn.
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dranger7070
Old 02-03-2010, 07:22 PM #4 (permalink)  
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What do you think his range is on the turn? What is c/c'ing? AA/AK? What else?
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surviva316
Old 02-03-2010, 08:09 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 because of SB's bad squeeze sizing and what our position's going to be postflop, we have to 4b preflop. it's more standard for him to squeeze like 1.80, so this sizing, when we just flat, allows CO to get a preposterous price IP in a 3-way pot to call with PP's, SC's and other various implied odds hands. when he calls, we're going to have terrible relative position and significantly reduce our profitability in this spot.

i think raising the flop is silly because, as you say, the chances of someone having a draw are slim-to-none (the only chance is if CO has 76s, and he may decide to semi-bluff raise that anyway). there are like no scare cards and there's only a PSB left behind so we're getting AA/AK's stack regardless. flatting allows us to the chance to possibly get KQ's stack (if that's in his range) and for him to make more mistakes with JJ-QQ.

the turn is kind of an awkward spot because we only have one PSB left behind, and really we're trying to maximize our value against marginal hands like QQ-JJ, KQ, while assuring we're still getting AA/AK's stack. surely we're getting snap folds from his marginal range if we simply shove the turn, yet checking leaves room for all types of scare cards to hit that will 3-flush or 4-straight the board (scare cards for villain, of course, we're winning the hand just about no matter what).

i'm somewhat inclined to ghey bet this turn like 2-2.40 to make him feel priced in with most his range. this leaves behind what seems like a perfect amount for villain to shove over if he feels like spazzing out with AK/AA/KQ, or if he falsely thinks he now has FE with AdQd. I also doubt he's c/c'ing this turn with AA/AK only to c/f to a <1/2 PSB river shove when a third diamond hits. MAYBE he finds a fold if the board 4-straights, but overall i think we stack more frequently by leaving us less money behind for the river.
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dranger7070
Old 02-03-2010, 08:11 PM #6 (permalink)  
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If we're going to gay bet it, lets make it super gay NAH MEAN? Like 1.50. The stacks are so shallow that it doesnt make a big difference between that and 2-2.40, but makes him think he has a little leeway to spazz shove over even more.
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surviva316
Old 02-03-2010, 08:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
What do you think his range is on the turn? What is c/c'ing? AA/AK? What else?
fwiw, i started my reply before anyone had responded, walked off to do something else, and finished it without having read any of the other discussion.

the problem is that whatever's c/f'ing the turn to this bet, is sure as hell not calling 7.20 into 6.90 even on the biggest of blanks (unless you're hoping for him to hit one of his 2 dirty outs). so it kinda seems like checking the turn simply allows for the possibility of villain NOT stacking with AA/AK if certain cards hit or if he decids to get nitty with AK facing a big shove or something; something that seemed damn near IMPOSSIBLE on the flop.

also, if villain's ever heard of a float, he might spazz out when facing a small turn bet getting the "he's bluffing me" syndrome. i'm liking the idea more and more of ghey-betting and laughing at all the creative ways villain finds to be retarded.
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dranger7070
Old 02-03-2010, 08:22 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Lol, yea I goofed. I thought the $4.10 bet put them all in for some reason. I like the $2 bet more now obv.
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!Luck
Old 02-03-2010, 08:50 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 Yeah I like the idea of a smaller turn bet than a check better. Didn't realize I gave enough odds for Cold caller to get in with PPs.

-!Luck
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