Originally Posted by gingerwizard

After your opponents bet there is 60 in the pot.

Say opponent folds y% of the time and calls (1 - y)% of the time

y% of the time you win 60.
(1-y)% of the time you bet 80 to win 120 (60 in pot plus his 60 to call)

Assuming this is on the flop so that you meant we can hit 9 outs on turn (if we're on the turn you adjust this bit), then we're a 2-1 dog to hit our flush.
So lets say that means we hit 33% of the time (rounding down)

So EV of bet when called is 0.33*120 - 0.67*80 = 39.6 - 53.6 = -14

So EV of move is
y*60 - 14*(1-y)
which equals 0 if and only if
60*y = 14 - 14*y
74*y = 14
y = 19% (rounded up)

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

This is something I'm trying to learn so I'd like to try before anyone answers. With 9 clean outs on the turn that is only 18% on catching our nut hand. So 4:1. Your betting $80 into $60 meaning if he calls you lose $80 x 4 $320 and if he folds you win $60. So the way I see it. In 5 pushes you:

Lose $80
Lose $80
Lose $80
Lose $80
Win $140 if he calls your $80 push

That's$320 lost, $140 won so it's -EV $180 so you would need him to fold 3 out of 5 times to be Up $60

Originally Posted by Jager

Ill give you guys a quick tip...

When you want to know what % of the time you need to get a fold for your bet to be BE:

X = your bet
Y = pot

0 EV = X / X+Y

Example: You bet 20 into a 30 pot, and you want to know how often he needs to fold for your bet to be profitable?

20 / 20 + 30 = 2/5 or 40%, so if he folds 40% you are BE, if he folds more than 40 you are + EV.

Also its good to note that these %'s never change.ie if you always bet 2/3 of the pot you will always need 40 % folds to be BE.

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

So EV of bet when called is 0.33*120 - 0.67*80 = 39.6 - 53.6 = -14

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

So EV of move is
y*60 - 14*(1-y)
which equals 0 if and only if
60*y = 14 - 14*y
74*y = 14
y = 19% (rounded up)

Originally Posted by Pants_101

This I can't follow at all. But I want to understand it. Can you explain it for a non mathematician please?

Originally Posted by minSim

We could do some general calculations for standard situations to have some sort of guideline. And by following that up with the difference having more/less outs, or a different stack/pot ratio, makes should give us a nice feeling about the FE needed.

I hope someone is willing to add the math, because I'm certain I don't do them right:

Example 1:
100BB effective stacks
We have a clean flush draws (9 outs), standard HU pot;

Preflop: raise 4BB, call. With blinds, let's say pot is 10BB afterwards.
Flop (10BB); bet 8BB, call.
Turn (26BB); bet 18BB.......hero pushes

The moment hero pushes the pot is 44BB. villain has 70 behind, hero has 88 to push.
What FE do we need here?

Example 2:
Same one, but now we raise flop.

Preflop: raise 4BB, call. With blinds, let's say pot is 10BB afterwards.
Flop (10BB); bet 8BB, raise 24BB, call.
Turn (58BB); bet 20BB.......hero pushes

Pot is 78, villain has 52 behind, hero has 72 to push.
What FE do we need here?

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

Not sure how these are different. You can change the numbers anytime but the calculation is the same as I did above (although you are 4-1 dog not 2-1). You plug the numbers in as I did and solve for y.

If you're not willing to try the maths then how will you get a feel for it?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Even the best players in the world cant do the math on spot, i consider myself a very good mathmatician and i can only estimate within a few percentage points. Doing the math actually isnt that important during the hand, but its useful to look at outside of a hand to think about if some semi bluffs are actually +EV or not.

Originally Posted by Chopper

agreed, but you can tell if it is close enough to give yourself the "green light," cant you?

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

How accurate will it be generically to apply a "we make the best hand" ratio to the upper bound Jager mentioned?

(Side note: Jager, how would that shortcut work if your opp had put more money in than you? You have to put your call in as part of the pot and then your raise as the ratio of your call+his raise+initial pot?)

Repeating the above example, assuming the above sidenote is true: Jager's upper bound shows that we're betting 60 to win 80+40 = 60/140 = 3/7 =42%. We're 2:1 to make the best hand, so we adjust in that we only need a fold enough to get it down to 1:1 --> 42% - 42%/2 = 21%. That's pretty close to 19%, and could be calculated on the fly.

Let's try in the other examples:
Push on turn example: betting 70 to win 70+44+18 = 70/132 = 53%. To adjust for the 4:1 draw --> 53% - 53%/4 = 40%


hmm...either I messed up the maths, my side note was wrong, or this doesn't work. Ginger, can you tell me which?

Originally Posted by Jager

Jeffrey I haven't yet used this tip for when a player has already bet a street and you are plannig a shove. I use it for when I am given an oppurtunity to bet, either oop or opp. Your theory does make sense to me though. When you are dealing with exact scenarios and you know you will win when you hit, you can get very accurate with your bets using your equity.

Example:
Villain has AsKc
You have Ah3h

Preflop 4 bb raise you call, HU flop with Villain, pot is 9.5 bbs.
Flop: Kh 6h 9s
You have 9 outs to the nuts, and unless you get running 3's you need a heart.

Villain bets 8 bbs.
You can call or raise and have 35% equity.

Scenario 1:

If you call and the turn blanks, and he fires again for 20 bbs into a 25.5 bbs pot you would then need to call 20 bbs to win a 45.5 bbs pot or you need to call a ~44% pot bet with only 18% equity. In fact he only needs to bet 6 bbs to eliminate your direct odds (6/31.5 = 19%). If you now shove for your remaining stack, Villain needs to call 68 bbs to win a 133.5 bbs pot, or 68/133.5 for 50.9%. He needs to have ~51% equity to make his call profitable, thus you really have zero fold equity IF villain can put you on your draw.

Scenario 2:

If you raise the flop to 24bbs. Your raise has immdiate results IF you think villain will fold 59%(24/24+17.5). However Villain needs to call 16 bbs with a 41.5 bbs pot for ~39%, or he needs 39% equity to call your bet. We know that villain has 65% equity and should not fold. If villain calls, turn blanks, and you both have 64 bbs left and a 57.5 bbs pot any reasonable bet will commit him and kill your direct odds. Any 3bet/shove on the flop by villain will commit him and again kill your direct odds.

So then why raise? You are trying to get a free card when villain checks turn, because you need to see both the turn and river cards to maximize your draw. As you can see though that playing just a flush draw is not good against even TPTK, unless villain will fold.

Originally Posted by Geanosssss

Although surely we need to factor in implied odds into the equation when figuring out whether or not are semi-bluff is +ev.

...dont we? Or is implied odds to situational to factor into such an equation??

Originally Posted by Jager

Ill give you guys a quick tip...

When you want to know what % of the time you need to get a fold for your bet to be BE:

X = your bet
Y = pot

0 EV = X / X+Y

Example: You bet 20 into a 30 pot, and you want to know how often he needs to fold for your bet to be profitable?

20 / 20 + 30 = 2/5 or 40%, so if he folds 40% you are BE, if he folds more than 40 you are + EV.

Also its good to note that these %'s never change.ie if you always bet 2/3 of the pot you will always need 40 % folds to be BE.

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

its B.

Of course if you're sure you can steal then neither as he always folds.

Originally Posted by crazycrazy

thanks for confirmation Massimo.

i actually wrote this down so i post it here:
simple EV calc for that is:
b = our bet
p = pot we are stabbing
x = breakeven point

EV = x*(-b) + (1-x)*(p)
if ev calc is correct than ev=0 is our break even point
0 = -x*b + (1-x)*p
....
....
x=p/(b+p)

Originally Posted by minSim

Example 2:
When villain folds, hero wins 78.

When villain calls;
hero wins 0.18 x 130 = 23.40
hero losses 0.82 x 52 = 42.64
EV of getting called = -19.24

78*y = 19.24 - 19.24*y
97.24*Y = 19.24
y = 20%

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

That seems exactly counter to Jager's short cut. Is his short cut wrong?