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aytopper
Old 04-05-2007, 08:52 PM     Post subject: Math question. #1 (permalink)  

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My question is in how many hands can I expect to be dealt a specific hand. For example, AA. I know that I will be dealt this particular hand about 0.45%. With this percentage, every how many hands can I expect to be dealt it?

Thanks.

-aytopper
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Muzzard
Old 04-05-2007, 09:14 PM #2 (permalink)  
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100/0.45 = 222

So once out of every 222 hands
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swiggidy
Old 04-05-2007, 09:37 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Actually it's (100 - 0.45) / 0.45 = 221

Since I'm bored at work.

The probability of getting dealt a specific hand is :
1 - (1 - 0.0045) ^ n
where n is the number of hands

Short chart:
n -> %
5 -> 2.2%
90 -> 33.4%
154 -> 50.1%
221 -> 63.1%
1000 -> 98.9%

So in 90 hands there is a 1/3 chance of your hand being dealt
While your hand comes once every 221 times there is only 2/3 chance you get dealt it at least once in a random 221 deal sample
You need to be dealt 1000 hands to have 99% confidence in your hand being dealt at least once
(\__/)
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Chopper
Old 04-06-2007, 03:00 AM #4 (permalink)  
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sick math, swigg. just sick. wp.
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jolub
Old 04-08-2007, 01:45 AM #5 (permalink)  
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That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
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Muzzard
Old 04-08-2007, 04:23 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jolub
That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
LOL so you get AA 222 times out of 1000?! WTF.

I know my math wasn't spot on, but yours is just RETARDED.
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bigspenda73
Old 04-08-2007, 06:25 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
Quote:
Originally Posted by jolub
That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
LOL so you get AA 222 times out of 1000?! WTF.

I know my math wasn't spot on, but yours is just RETARDED.
Calm down skippy it's just poor syntax. He means over 100 of 1000's of hands you will get it on average every 222nd hand.
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swiggidy
Old 04-08-2007, 06:32 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 IT"S NOT 222, it's 221!!!
(\__/)
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(")_(")
 
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GatorJH
Old 04-09-2007, 12:51 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
IT"S NOT 222, it's 221!!!
YEA!!! What chopper said!!!
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bigspenda73
Old 04-09-2007, 01:22 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
IT"S NOT 222, it's 221!!!
Are you sure? I mean we see this all the time but I'd really like someone to work the math out...
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salsa4ever
Old 04-09-2007, 01:31 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
IT"S NOT 222, it's 221!!!
Are you sure? I mean we see this all the time but I'd really like someone to work the math out...
swiggidy already gave u the formula

Here's a more intuitive way to work it out:
Ways to get AA = 4 x 3
Ways to get any 2 = 52 x 51

(52x51)/(4x3) = 221

BTW swiggidy as my combinatorial statistics sux, what kind of distribution are you using for your n chart and what's the basis for using it?
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well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
 
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bigspenda73
Old 04-09-2007, 03:15 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 pssst...salsa..pssst....I was joking
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EzDuzIt
Old 04-09-2007, 03:56 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
Quote:
Originally Posted by jolub
That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
LOL so you get AA 222 times out of 1000?! WTF.

I know my math wasn't spot on, but yours is just RETARDED.
lol... can you read muzz?
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swiggidy
Old 04-09-2007, 04:00 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by salsa4ever
BTW swiggidy as my combinatorial statistics sux, what kind of distribution are you using for your n chart and what's the basis for using it?
no distribution

chance of being dealt your hand:
0.0045

Chance of not being dealt your hand:
1 - 0.0045

chance of not being dealt your hand n times in a row:
(1 - 0.0045) ^ n

chances of not not being dealt your hand n times in a row:
1 - (1 - 0.0045) ^ n
(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
 
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Muzzard
Old 04-09-2007, 04:15 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EzDuzIt
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
Quote:
Originally Posted by jolub
That doesn't mead you'll get dealt it every 222 hands. It means over thousands of hands that is how often you will be dealt it.
LOL so you get AA 222 times out of 1000?! WTF.

I know my math wasn't spot on, but yours is just RETARDED.
lol... can you read muzz?
LOL no, but it does read 222/1000.
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EzDuzIt
Old 04-09-2007, 05:41 AM #16 (permalink)  
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it doesnt read over A THOUSAND hands you will be dealt 222 times. it reads over THOUSANDS of hands, and then not how many how often. he didnt write it well either though so...
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Muzzard
Old 04-09-2007, 05:53 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EzDuzIt
it doesnt read over A THOUSAND hands you will be dealt 222 times. it reads over THOUSANDS of hands, and then not how many how often. he didnt write it well either though so...
Yes, I am a retard and cannot read. I just noticed that it says thousandS.
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