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Santocubs
Old 06-06-2006, 11:04 PM     Post subject: Math Question #1 (permalink)  

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If you have Ax (suited) what are the odds of you hitting the flush (for the entire hand..flop, turn, river)?
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Greedo017
Old 06-06-2006, 11:30 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 6.4% or 1 in 15 to make a flush by the river
i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
 
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jackvance
Old 06-07-2006, 04:48 AM #3 (permalink)  
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jackvance is an unknown quantity at this point
 50 unknowns, 11 cards in the deck we need.

a) The chance to flop the nut flush: 11/50*10/49*9/48=0.84%

b) The chance to flop the 4-flush: 11/50*10/49*39/48*3=10.9%

c) The chance to get one of our suit on the flop: 11/50*40/49*39/48*3= 43.8%

b1) The chance to hit the flush on the turn if we flopped a 4-flush: 9/47=19.1%.

b2) The chance to hit our flush on the river if we miss the turn. 9/46=19.6%

c1) The chance to score a runner runner flush: 10/47*9/46=4.16%


To conclude:

Flop the flush: 0.84%
Turn the flush: (.109)*(0.191)=2%
River the flush: (.109)*(0.809)*(0.196) + (0.438)*(0.0416)=1.7%+1.8%=3.5%

So the total is ~6.35% like greed said
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badandy519
Old 06-07-2006, 05:00 AM #4 (permalink)  
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If you are playing on Party against me, I think the number is more like 75% ish
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jackvance
Old 06-07-2006, 05:19 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 And on prima, triple or more the chance to hit runner-runner flushes.
Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
 
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Greedo017
Old 06-07-2006, 06:48 AM #6 (permalink)  
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i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
 
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