|
BankItDrew
|
07-27-2006, 10:00 PM
Post subject: The math of bluffing
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
|
|
How can I understand the thinking behind bluffing? Is there an equation such as: fold equity + outs = size of bluff ??
It's easy to outbet a drawing hand, but how do I outbet a marginal hand towards a fold? Or is this too general of a question?
I know there are dozens of factors involved, but I'd love to hear input on this.
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
bigred
|
|
PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
|
|
<~~~~~Ur cock has to be this big to bluff.
|
|
LOL OPERATIONS
|
|
Rockymv
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,177
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by bigred
<~~~~~Ur cock has to be this big to bluff.
|
nice cock.
|
|
|
|
Rockymv
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,177
|
|
although that was probably too obvious to be funny.
|
|
|
|
Rockymv
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,177
|
|
yeah, 20 minutes later i realize that wasn't funny at all.
|
|
|
|
johnnyBuz
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Philly, Pa
Posts: 462
|
|
30 minutes later you realize you are trying to catch up to jackvance in posts but give up when you realize it's impossible.
|
|
Liter of cola.
|
|
bigred
|
|
PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
|
|
40 minutes later I still have a large cock
|
|
LOL OPERATIONS
|
|
Halv
|
|
pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by bigred
40 minutes later I still have a large cock
|
Does this mean that the guy that keeps sending me these "V-iagra make you lo.ve longer sens-ual w0man onl.y 1.99$" emails are for real? *inputs credit card information*
|
|
|
|
BankItDrew
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
|
|
Worst hijacking ever.
|
|
|
|
Rockymv
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,177
|
|
bigred started it.
|
|
|
|
samsonite2100
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Your loosing, lolololololololololol
Posts: 858
|
|
Quote:
|
Is there an equation such as: fold equity + outs = size of bluff ??
|
If I'm in a hand where I feel that 1) villain has a marginal hand that I have good FE against and 2) I have a lot of outs, then I don't really look at it as bluffing--any $$ I put in the pot has positive equity, so I'm really just betting my strong hand.
"Bluffing," I would define as more pure FE. I don't think there's any mathematical model you could make for it, considering all the factors involved, including position, pot size, chip stacks, villain's range, hero's table image, and most importantly probably, villain's stats.
|
|
|
|
DaNutsInYoEye
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
|
|
Sorry BigRed, but I prefer black cock.
|
|
TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
|
|
2_Thumbs_Up
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 271
|
|
A pure bluff were you have absolutely no chance to win if you get called are relatively simple to calculate the odds on. Just compare your bet/raise size to the pot size and estimate the chance of the opponent folding.
If you bet 5BB in a 5BB pot your opponent will have to fold more than 50% of the time for it to be +EV.
However, if you have some outs (semibluffing) or you think it's possible to get called by a worse hand it gets more complicated.
I think this is accurate:
EV = F * P - C * A
F = Estimated chance of opponent folding
P = Pot size
C = Estimated chance of opponent calling (or raising)
A = Avarage loss if you get called (If you have no chance of winning if you get called A = The size of your bet)
Obviously F = 1 - C
It's the avarage loss that's hard to estimate since it depends on so many things. If it's on the river the avarage loss equals to how much behind of your opponents calling range you are. But otherwise you have to consider the times you are forced to fold to a later bet. And if you are semibluffing you have to consider implied odds and redraws (if implied odds are big the variable A may even be avarage win). You also have to consider the times where you do hit your hand but villain had a better hand all along so you end up losing even more money.
I'm a little bit unsure of the math here but it seems like that's how it should be done, someone correct me if it's not.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
