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BILLABONG
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12-08-2004, 09:06 AM
Post subject: MATCHING POT GIVING MY OPPONENT IMPLIED ODDS?! READ~~~
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
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Ok so please let me know if im wrong about any of the following. In my last couple of post I have been askin about wether or not I should bet if a scared card comes out on the turn of the river when im out of position. (for example read my post QUESTION 2). Well I was doing some rough math and came to the conclusion that MORE THEN LIKELY* it would be in many players best intrest (including mine) to become very passive once a scare card comes out on the turn or the river AND im out of position AND you dont have much of a read on that player. I believe you should check/fold the turn once a scare card comes out, and check/call a bet IF your receiving 3:1 on your money on the river.
NOTE:This is all due to implied odds that the you (the player OUT OF POSITION with a made hand that is tryin to bet inyto your opponent in late postion out so that he doesnt hit his flush draw that you assume he has. These mathematical odds are based on 9 outs (flush draw) 17% chance of catching on the turn or river. Reason being, is in my opinion more people chase flushes then any other poker hand.This is also based on betting and matching the pot since that would give my opponent the lowest implied odds to chase. Andinally and maybe most importantly this is based on a player who only chases ONLY ONE TURN...in other words he only chases the turn OR chases to the river
So it's pretty simple and it goes like this.
POT=$5.00 on flop
I BET $5.00 on flop
OPPONENT CALLS $5.00
POT ON THE TURN =$15.00
SNERARIO 1:Now, if my opponent has a nut flush draw, hes goin to hit it on the turn roughly 17% of the time. With my opponent calling $5.00 on the flop. He is goin to lose $5.00 roughly 83% of the time ($415.00). There for he would need to make $415.00 just to break even...
WIth that being said your opponent chases his flush draw to the turn, misses, and loses $415.00, gives up the hand, no big deal
However, now lets suppose the turn comes and my opponent hits his flush. If you bet anymore then apox. double of what you bet on the flop (for example since you bet $5.00 on the flop if you bet anymore then $10.00 on the turn) you will not only be giving your opponent the implied odds he needed to outdraw you but will also be giving him justification to draw out on you again in a future hand. BECAUSE if you bet $10.00 or more on the turn now after the flush appears. There will be a total of $25.00 in the pot. And $25.00 x 17 (17% of the time the flush hits on turn) will equal $425.00! This means because of not checking but betting more then double on the turn of what you bet on the flop has now givin him implied odds. Not much. But the point is your still paying off your opponent for chasing and outdrawing you. Personally I dont like paying my opponent off to outdraw me.
Now, im not sayin to never bet the turn once the flush appears if for example you have a read on your opponent who has been a really tight player and you know never chases. But, is there anyone here that can tell me other wise why one should bet into a flush board when the player they are up against chases?
Why not save your money and use it on a later hand???
And believe me I dont like checking because to me it says im weak so cmon and "buy this pot". But most people who are loose/chasers are not goin to bluff the flush. In other words if they dont have a flush I dont believe theyre goin to bet in later position when they can just see a extra card for free....Please give me some thoughts towards this
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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The reason I would bet here is to find out whether my opponent has the flush. I agree with you that if the flush card falls on the turn you should bet about the same as you bet on the flop (I'm not sure if you're saying to not increase your bet or to check, honestly). Checking on the flush card out of position basically gives your opponent all the information he needs to bet you out of the hand whether he was drawing to the flush or not.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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BILLABONG
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 102
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Im sayin that it would probably be in a players best intrest once the scare card comes to become very tight/passive and check/fold the turn if he bets the flush and check/fold/call the river if he bets and gives u ATLEAST 3:1 on your money to call....
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