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Mike
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07-31-2006, 04:13 PM
Post subject: Lower volatility
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 72
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I have played a couple of SnGs and starts to feel real comfortable in the lower games. However, I seem to have a real bad luck. The last times 3 times I had AA - I lost to a guy with KK. The last time was right now, which made me abit pissed so I started to think what to do about. I rather not fold AA just because I m afraid my opponent will hit a K. Maybe one could try to go ALMOST ALL IN when the stacks are equal. Stupid idea?
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swiggidy
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07-31-2006, 04:17 PM
Post subject: Re: Lower volatility
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#2 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Mike
I have played a couple of SnGs and starts to feel real comfortable in the lower games. However, I seem to have a real bad luck. The last times 3 times I had AA - I lost to a guy with KK. The last time was right now, which made me abit pissed so I started to think what to do about. I rather not fold AA just because I m afraid my opponent will hit a K. Maybe one could try to go ALMOST ALL IN when the stacks are equal. Stupid idea?
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Extremely. By your logic you should also fear JTs because they might flop a straight, 74o because it might flop a boat, 95s might flop a straight flush...
You're 4:1 favorite. You just lost 3 times, so that means you're destined to win the next 12!!!!
Sit back and let the cash roll in.
{EDIT: fixed my odds}
{EDIT: forgot to fix other number after I fixed odds}
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 5,007
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It is a stupid idea. What you describe right now is a form of tilt. You are afraid to play your strong hands agressively because they will get cracked. This is a vicious cycle and it goes like this:
1. You play AA less agressively
2. More people see the flop
3. More people have a chance to imrpove
4. Your AA gets cracked more often
5. You are scared and play AA even less agressively.
You lost 3 times in a row with AA, it happens, next time you get AA vs KK you are still 4:1 favorite
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Mike this isn't chess, you can play perfect and still lose in the short run. Stop fighting it and accept it, its gambling ffs. If you try to control variance then you will be sacrificing EV and you will never be able to completely control it anyways. Just keep getting your money in with the best of it (+ good bankroll management) and you will win over the long run, guaranteed.*
*the long run is longer than you think
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aokrongly
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 863
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...
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KingLizard
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 296
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
It is a stupid idea. What you describe right now is a form of tilt. You are afraid to play your strong hands agressively because they will get cracked. This is a vicious cycle and it goes like this:
1. You play AA less agressively
2. More people see the flop
3. More people have a chance to imrpove
4. Your AA gets cracked more often
5. You are scared and play AA even less agressively.
You lost 3 times in a row with AA, it happens, next time you get AA vs KK you are still 4:1 favorite
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Or you'll do the opposite ... push every AA preflop and get no callers ... hence no payoff.
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jackvance
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07-31-2006, 07:07 PM
Post subject: Re: Lower volatility
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#7 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by swiggidy
You're 4:1 favorite. You just lost 3 times, so that means you're destined to win the next 15!!!!
(...)
{EDIT: fixed my odds}
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You will on average win 4 and lose 1 every 5 times you go with AA vs KK.. so if he lost 3, isn't he supposed to be destined to win the next 12 instead of 15?
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 5,007
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
Quote:
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Originally Posted by swiggidy
You're 4:1 favorite. You just lost 3 times, so that means you're destined to win the next 15!!!!
(...)
{EDIT: fixed my odds}
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You will on average win 4 and lose 1 every 5 times you go with AA vs KK.. so if he lost 3, isn't he supposed to be destined to win the next 12 instead of 15? |
no
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Mike
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 72
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What I mean is under certain circumstances this could be a good idea noty to push it all through. For instance if the stacks are equal. What would for instance a guy like Gus Hansen or any other pro do if he they were dealt AA on the BB as the first hand i WSOP and some guy starts raising with KK.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
no
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yes
Quote:
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What I mean is under certain circumstances this could be a good idea noty to push it all through. For instance if the stacks are equal. What would for instance a guy like Gus Hansen or any other pro do if he they were dealt AA on the BB as the first hand i WSOP and some guy starts raising with KK.
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The first hand of the 2006 WSOP (day 1A) a guy got knocked out with KK vs AA allin preflop.
Guy pays $10000 and he can go home after the first hand. That's poker ^^
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Mike
What I mean is under certain circumstances this could be a good idea noty to push it all through. For instance if the stacks are equal. What would for instance a guy like Gus Hansen or any other pro do if he they were dealt AA on the BB as the first hand i WSOP and some guy starts raising with KK. |
This article was posted in the MTT forum. They show that taking QQ vs AK in the first hand is the correct decision. Anyone with AA (and an understanding of the game) is happily putting all their chips on the line, in the first hand, with AA.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TLR
no
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yes |
lol. The idea is wrong, the math is right (now because jack noticed the error).
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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That was an amazingly good article you linked there swiggidy, thx for that
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
That was an amazingly good article you linked there swiggidy, thx for that
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No problem. I am a master of content regurgitation.
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(='.'=)
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Mike
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 72
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Thanks alot. I'm convinced. Very good article. I think my luck has turned up again. I just kicked the ass of a 77 with my KJc.
Flop: JJ8
Turn: K
River: 5
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Run better. Hit more sets. Problem solved.
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