Low Flush - River Advice Pls

**The Bean Counter** · 05-16-2012 10:19 PM

I don't think villain shows up with anything other than the nut flush here often enough to make the call profitable at 10nl. Experience and database also tells me I'm probably right, albeit only 38k hands played.

UTG is 8/7 over 133 hands, AF=3.0 and 0% cbet over 2 hands. Villain also timed out on flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4.17)
SB ($9.44)
Hero (BB) ($12.77)
UTG ($10.51)
UTG+1 ($11.14)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($4.40)
MP3 ($11.61)
CO ($11.08)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7h-8h ,
UTG bets $0.40, UTG+1 calls $0.40, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) Qh, 9h, 3c (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: ($1.25) Jh (3 players)
Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60, 1 fold

River: ($2.45) 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, UTG raises to $9.51 (All-In), Hero???

**Imthenewfish** · 05-16-2012 11:02 PM

fold pre, bet more on turn, call river

**Robb** · 05-17-2012 02:54 AM

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

fold pre

this

**Icanhastreebet** · 05-17-2012 04:33 AM

rivers probably a fold, don't mind the call pre at all as long as UTG+1 is really bad.

**Imthenewfish** · 05-17-2012 04:36 AM

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

rivers probably a fold, don't mind the call pre at all as long as UTG+1 is really bad.

how often does he have to spazz or play a set retardly here given that theres like 1 better flush combo? do we really just put him on AK and fold? i feel like im missing something

edit: i guess he could have AT or KT so yeah fold

**MadMojoMonkey** · 05-17-2012 05:09 AM

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

How often does he have to spaz or play a set retardly here [...] ?

Final decision:
amount to call: $9.51 - $2.10 = $7.41
pot: $2.45 + $2.10 + 9.51 = $14.06

(7.41)/(7.41 + 14.06) = 34.5%

You must be right more than ~1/3 of the time to make the call +EV.

**Icanhastreebet** · 05-17-2012 05:14 AM

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

how often does he have to spazz or play a set retardly here given that theres like 1 better flush combo? do we really just put him on AK and fold? i feel like im missing something

edit: i guess he could have AT or KT so yeah fold

I mean he's 8/7 over 133 hands. I don't think there's a chance at all that he spazzes and yes our opponents range can be narrowed to 1 combo sometimes.

**Imthenewfish** · 05-17-2012 05:20 AM

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Final decision:
amount to call: $9.51 - $2.10 = $7.41
pot: $2.45 + $2.10 + 9.51 = $14.06

(7.41)/(7.41 + 14.06) = 34.5%

You must be right more than ~1/3 of the time to make the call +EV.

yeah i meant the frequency that he has to take that line with like 9's, j's, q's

**MadMojoMonkey** · 05-17-2012 02:49 PM

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

yeah i meant the frequency that he has to take that line with like 9's, j's, q's

It's the same question. That equation shows how often you have to win to break even in ANY gambling situation. It's far more broad-reaching than just being insanely useful in poker.

The frequency that you need to be right (holding the winning hand) is the same as the Villain "spazzing out" (betting with the worst hand.)

**Imthenewfish** · 05-17-2012 10:13 PM

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

It's the same question. That equation shows how often you have to win to break even in ANY gambling situation. It's far more broad-reaching than just being insanely useful in poker.

The frequency that you need to be right (holding the winning hand) is the same as the Villain "spazzing out" (betting with the worst hand.)

i wasn't asking about the frequency that we need to be right i was just pointing out how often he has to take that line with his 9 combos of sets given that he only has 1 combo that beats us, and that's not 34%

edit: if we wanted to find the actual number we have to estimate how much to discount the AKs because of his flop check

**The Bean Counter** · 05-19-2012 01:06 PM

I suppose my question is, when villain tells us such a convincing story that they have the nut flush, are we really calling here despite the relatively low percentage required to call?

My database tells me I've been raised on the river 3 times holding a flush on a non-paired board prior to this hand and each time they've had it - I've shipped twice and flat called a min raise once but this is the first time I've been shipped on.

05-16-2012 10:19 PM #1
The Bean Counter View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Dec 2011 Posts 338	Low Flush - River Advice Pls I don't think villain shows up with anything other than the nut flush here often enough to make the call profitable at 10nl. Experience and database also tells me I'm probably right, albeit only 38k hands played. UTG is 8/7 over 133 hands, AF=3.0 and 0% cbet over 2 hands. Villain also timed out on flop. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com Button ($4.17) SB ($9.44) Hero (BB) ($12.77) UTG ($10.51) UTG+1 ($11.14) MP1 ($10) MP2 ($4.40) MP3 ($11.61) CO ($11.08) Preflop: Hero is BB with 7h-8h , UTG bets $0.40, UTG+1 calls $0.40, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.30 Flop: ($1.25) Qh, 9h, 3c (3 players) Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks Turn: ($1.25) Jh (3 players) Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60, 1 fold River: ($2.45) 6d (2 players) Hero bets $2.10, UTG raises to $9.51 (All-In), Hero???

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05-16-2012 11:02 PM #2
Imthenewfish View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2010 Posts 1,107	fold pre, bet more on turn, call river

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05-17-2012 02:54 AM #3
Robb View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2007 Posts 3,230	Originally Posted by Imthenewfish fold pre this
	My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are sob so hard to play against
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05-17-2012 04:33 AM #4
Icanhastreebet View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Dec 2009 Posts 1,410 Location IRC, Come join me!	rivers probably a fold, don't mind the call pre at all as long as UTG+1 is really bad.

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05-17-2012 04:36 AM #5
Imthenewfish View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2010 Posts 1,107	Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet rivers probably a fold, don't mind the call pre at all as long as UTG+1 is really bad. how often does he have to spazz or play a set retardly here given that theres like 1 better flush combo? do we really just put him on AK and fold? i feel like im missing something edit: i guess he could have AT or KT so yeah fold

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05-17-2012 05:09 AM #6
MadMojoMonkey View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2012 Posts 1,235 Location St Louis, MO	Originally Posted by Imthenewfish How often does he have to spaz or play a set retardly here [...] ? Final decision: amount to call: $9.51 - $2.10 = $7.41 pot: $2.45 + $2.10 + 9.51 = $14.06 (7.41)/(7.41 + 14.06) = 34.5% You must be right more than ~1/3 of the time to make the call +EV.

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05-17-2012 05:14 AM #7
Icanhastreebet View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Dec 2009 Posts 1,410 Location IRC, Come join me!	Originally Posted by Imthenewfish how often does he have to spazz or play a set retardly here given that theres like 1 better flush combo? do we really just put him on AK and fold? i feel like im missing something edit: i guess he could have AT or KT so yeah fold I mean he's 8/7 over 133 hands. I don't think there's a chance at all that he spazzes and yes our opponents range can be narrowed to 1 combo sometimes.

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05-17-2012 05:20 AM #8
Imthenewfish View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2010 Posts 1,107	Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey Final decision: amount to call: $9.51 - $2.10 = $7.41 pot: $2.45 + $2.10 + 9.51 = $14.06 (7.41)/(7.41 + 14.06) = 34.5% You must be right more than ~1/3 of the time to make the call +EV. yeah i meant the frequency that he has to take that line with like 9's, j's, q's

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05-17-2012 02:49 PM #9
MadMojoMonkey View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2012 Posts 1,235 Location St Louis, MO	Originally Posted by Imthenewfish yeah i meant the frequency that he has to take that line with like 9's, j's, q's It's the same question. That equation shows how often you have to win to break even in ANY gambling situation. It's far more broad-reaching than just being insanely useful in poker. The frequency that you need to be right (holding the winning hand) is the same as the Villain "spazzing out" (betting with the worst hand.)

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05-17-2012 10:13 PM #10
Imthenewfish View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2010 Posts 1,107	Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey It's the same question. That equation shows how often you have to win to break even in ANY gambling situation. It's far more broad-reaching than just being insanely useful in poker. The frequency that you need to be right (holding the winning hand) is the same as the Villain "spazzing out" (betting with the worst hand.) i wasn't asking about the frequency that we need to be right i was just pointing out how often he has to take that line with his 9 combos of sets given that he only has 1 combo that beats us, and that's not 34% edit: if we wanted to find the actual number we have to estimate how much to discount the AKs because of his flop check
	Last edited by Imthenewfish; 05-17-2012 at 10:17 PM.
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05-19-2012 01:06 PM #11
The Bean Counter View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Dec 2011 Posts 338	I suppose my question is, when villain tells us such a convincing story that they have the nut flush, are we really calling here despite the relatively low percentage required to call? My database tells me I've been raised on the river 3 times holding a flush on a non-paired board prior to this hand and each time they've had it - I've shipped twice and flat called a min raise once but this is the first time I've been shipped on.

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