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Limping Axs for flushes

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biondino

05-26-2006, 04:40 PM Post subject: Limping Axs for flushes

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars

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I have been discussing this topic with a friend as I think it might be a not insubstantial leak in my game. I have simplified both my tactics and the maths involved for ease of comprehension, but please tell me if you disagree with my point or if you think my calculations are way off.

Also, bear in mind I am talking specifically about full ring $25NL or thereabouts.

Central premise: every time I get Axs (where x is <T), I limp. I am ignoring position because I am just looking at an average here, and I am assuming that the amount I win with a non-flush hand is balanced out by the amount I lose to a boat etc.

50% of the time when I limp, the pot is raised and I fold.

Statistically, 6% of suited hands make their flush by the river. For the sake of argument, let's say I get to the river (or make the flush earlier) 4% of the time, to compensate for the times I am forced to fold. This means I hit my nut flush 1 time in 25 times I see the flop, and therefore in in every 50 times I limp with Axs.

Ergo, I need to make a profit of AT LEAST 50 big blinds every time I make my flush for this tactic to be +EV.

Thoughts?

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Lukie

05-26-2006, 04:43 PM

#2 (permalink)

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sounds even more -ev by your own math then what it really is (except in really, really horrible games where it could be profitable)

biondino

05-26-2006, 04:48 PM

#3 (permalink)

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So is my maths wrong, do you think? I mean it's not supposed to be accurate, but I am trying to figure out if any of the variables are way off. I also wonder whether it's worth raising - in LP or even more often? Seriously, this is one of the three biggest (potential) leaks I've identified lately - help really appreciated.

gabe

05-26-2006, 04:49 PM

#4 (permalink)

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gabe is an unknown quantity at this point

if the table is loose, play them. if the pot is raised and other people are in, dont fold.

zook

05-26-2006, 05:06 PM

#5 (permalink)

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It sounds like a leak to me... flushes are so obvious that it's hard to get anyone to play for stacks when you have them. Plus if you're ever staying in hands with TPWK, you're losing even more money. I dump Axs through middle position, and limp behind or open-raise from LP.

WhooFleuryScores

05-26-2006, 10:07 PM

#6 (permalink)

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You should only limp Axs in LP or MP with at least 3-4 other limpers and be wary of a position raise behind you.Generally only AQs and AJs can handle raises from LP(and even then you may be dominated).

Miffed22001

05-27-2006, 04:11 AM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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maybe you arent playing your draws aggressivly enough?

WhooFleuryScores

05-27-2006, 04:18 AM

#8 (permalink)

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I think position plays a key part in playing the draws effectively too though.

Werddown

05-27-2006, 02:46 PM

#9 (permalink)

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I'm going to give you the advice that Sklansky, Malmuth, and Ed Miller give for low stakes hold em... Keep in mind that this is more for limit, but it still applies to NL (I included A10s even though its not technically Axs)

One issue I ponder with these reccomendations is that they might be slightly off for NL since it's not taking into account the possibility of completely de-stacking someone or facing a raise larger than one bet while you are on a draw... In limit you can just call the one bet and draw at your hand... you might face a much larger raise in a no limit game.. Perhaps the math works for both game types, though, since while you can just call the one bet, the max you can win is 3 bets (on each street) if you make your flush... but I'm not for certain.

For Tight Games (3-5 Players Average to the flop):
-------------
Early -
Fold A9s-A2s, limp with A10s
Against a raise: fold A10s - A2s

Middle -
Limp A9s - A2s , Raise A10s
Against a raise : fold A10s - A2s

Late -
Limp A2s - A7s, Raise A8s-A10s
Against a raise: fold A10s - A2s

SB -
Limp A2s - A9s, Raise A10s
Against a raise: Fold A10 - A2s

BB -
Raise A10s
Against a raise: Its kind of limit specific here, stating that you should play the same hands you'd play from late position for one bet... I think the equivalent in NL would be either calling a minraise, or calling if at least 3 people besides the raiser are in the pot.

It seems to leave out the reccomendation to call a raise if at least 3 other players have also called it, for tight games... My guess for this would be, that perhaps the tighter the game becomes, the less value you gain from Ax's ability to make top pair and win a showdown, against a raise...
Or maybe they just completely forgot to mention it and you should actually call a raise if 3 other people have also called it... I don't know... They do reccomend calling in this situation for loose games, though, and since they say to revert to the tight guidelines if LESS than 3 other people have called the raise, it may very well be implying to call in tight games if 3 or more people have called the raise.

Examining it further though, it definitely looks like they leave it out on purpose, because only the loose game section has text that reads "If 4 or more players have entered the pot", under the late position guidelines.

For Loose Games (6-8 Players Average to the flop):
---------
Early: Limp A9s - A2s, Raise A10s
Against a raise: Fold A9s - A2s, Call with A10s (this advice might be limit specific too, because if its a large bet, calling with A10s would probably be -EV. If its a bet likely to get called by 3 or more other players though, you should probably call)

Middle: Same as early

Late: Limp A7s-A2s and K8s-K2s, Raise A9s-A8s and Raise K9s
Against a raise: If at least 4 people have entered the pot... Call with A10s-A2s (ANY suited ace), fold suited kings.
If fewer than 4 people have entered the pot revert to TIGHT game guidelines for late position against a raise.

SB: Limp A9s-A2s and K9s-K2s, Raise A10s
Against a raise: Fold A10s-A2s and any suited king as well

BB: Raise A10s
Against a raise: Same hands as late position for one bet (again, limit specific, so I'd probably call a min-raise or a slightly larger raise if 3 other people had already called it)

So there you have it... I hope you found this useful because it took forever for me to type out, Lol. Actually, this was really helpful to me too, becuse it forced me to think a little more deeply about the subject, and the concepts involved. Like I said before, this advice is primarily for limit play, so take it for what its worth, and draw your own conclusions from the reccomendations. I still think that this information is very helpful in developing your strategy for no limit play as well, though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

if the table is loose, play them. if the pot is raised and other people are in, dont fold.

^^ This seems to be pretty dead on with the guidelines they make in the book, in a much shorter and abbreviated version

biondino

05-29-2006, 10:54 PM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars

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Very useful - thanks!

I just checked my most recent 16,000 hands and my winnings with A2s-A9s = 54BB/100. So I'm obviously not playing them too badly - but certainly Sklansky seems to be pretty much on the money above, and I'm sure my game is heading in the direction of his recommendations.

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