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rspeirsmlb
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08-13-2008, 07:49 PM
Post subject: Leak?
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Clearwater, FL
Posts: 54
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Ok so I've been playing a ton of poker for the last year or so. NL holdem tournaments mainly. I normally go by the 2 4 rule for calculating odds, but I can't find the answer to this one problem. What are my outs/odds of hitting the backdoor flush? Lately I've come into alot of situations where I hit middle pair on the flop with a backdoor flush draw, and can't decide whether or not I'm getting value out of calling, or if I should just lay it down. If it's a pot bet or larger bet, I obviously fold. Is it a leak to be calling bets with these hands looking to improve my hand into a flush, or maybe trips?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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5% or so
1/4 * 1/5
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rspeirsmlb
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Clearwater, FL
Posts: 54
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So if I have middle pair for instance on the flop with backdoor. I'de have about a 32% chance of hitting another pair or trips taking it to the river, and add 5% on top for backdoor flush. approx: 36-38% of hitting. Am I right? With this said, I would only be wanting to make calls within 40% of the pot size, correct?
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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I think SSH says a backdoor flush is worth about one more out if you're getting all-in on the flop.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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You can evaluate it at 1 to 1.5 outs. 1.5 because the Backdoor flush makes it and your opponent won't give you credit for it.
Runner Runner Straights are:
no gappers (789) 1.5 outs
1 gappers (78t) 1 out
2 gappers (78J) .5 outs
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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Erpel
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 605
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The chance to hit runner runner flush cards is this:
10 cards out of 47 must hit - then 9 cards out of 46 must hit. You could state this mathematically as 9/46th of 10 outs on the turn - that's 1.95 outs.
You can say that your 10 immediate outs are 'good' outs 1.95 outs of the time (to a better draw, not a made hand) and 'bad' outs 8.05 outs of the time.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Erpel
The chance to hit runner runner flush cards is this:
10 cards out of 47 must hit - then 9 cards out of 46 must hit. You could state this mathematically as 9/46th of 10 outs on the turn - that's 1.95 outs.
You can say that your 10 immediate outs are 'good' outs 1.95 outs of the time (to a better draw, not a made hand) and 'bad' outs 8.05 outs of the time.
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No point in calculating it just to the turn, because in order to get a runner runner flush draw, you've got to go to the river.
So on the flop you evaluate your outs, all the way to the river, then on the turn you evaluate your outs all the way to the river again.
Calculating outs is an attempt to justify value with an inferior hand, there is no value in drawing to a draw.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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