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| wellrounded08 |
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com MP1 ($5.11) MP2 ($3.73) MP3 ($3.67) CO ($5.60) Hero (Button) ($6.15) SB ($9.21) BB ($5.84) UTG ($12.80) UTG+1 ($8.25) Preflop: Hero is Button with K  A 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.25, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.20, MP3 raises to $1.55, 2 folds Total pot: $0.82 | Rake: $0.00 I rarely see that move outside of shortstackers. Doesn't it almost always mean AA, maybe KK at these stakes(When it's not a shortstacker obviously)? |
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Play for FREE and practice your game at...Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting! | ||||
| daven |
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| folding is at worst a small mistake here. .. | |||
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don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/ |
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| thizzSantaCruz |
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| Theres so much money in the pot that you should push here. AFter he limps pf behind another limper he very rarely ever has you dominated. Most likely your flipping with him and with all the money all ready in the pot this is +EV. Shove it in. | |||
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Flopping quads and boats like its my job
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| wellrounded08 |
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I don't think I've ever seen this move outside of AA or KK But just in case I pokerstove'd it here's what I've got: Him:Any PP-54% ME:AKo -45% Him: JJ+-61% MeAKo-38% Him: QQ+, AKs/o -58% Me: AKo - 41% Him: KK+ -76% Me: AKo+ -23% And I've got next to nothing in the line of FE. He's commited at this point. I dunno, I feel like dumping 5xBB is as stated: "at worst a small mistake here.." (I'm ok w/ being wrong, that's why I'm asking.) |
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| oskar |
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I've seen people do that with A4 and 33. I've seen people go all-in for 30$ with small PP on 5NL tables. This is were you should know how long this guy has been sitting there. There are 75c in the pot, so the odds are not staggering considering that you have to put him all-in here. I don't think you can call, he'll just have a PSB left, but this forum got me confused. If you can't raise trash UTG then I don't understand the world anymore. Without a read it's tough. But I think I push here more often than not... No idea if it's good or not. |
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| oskar |
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (4 handed) - Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com UTG ($10.59) Button ($9.87) SB ($2.32) Hero (BB) ($5) Preflop: Hero is BB with A KUTG calls $0.04, 1 fold, SB raises to $2.32 (All-In), Hero calls $2.28, UTG calls $2.28 Flop: ($6.96) 10 9 A (3 players, 1 all-in)Hero raises to $2.68 (All-In), 1 fold Turn: ($6.96) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)River: ($6.96) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)Total pot: $6.96 Villain had Q3. I looked at my biggest wins and losses with AK, but most of them aren't preflop AI calls... I know I ran into QQ a couple of times. Don't think I stacked off with AK while being dominated lately. |
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| Jack Sawyer |
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MP3 has less than 100BB left. Barring reads, you should push over him here. Dead money in the pot more than makes this push worthwile. |
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
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http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI |
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| sarbox68 |
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Unless you got a read that he is an insurmountable nit, his range is def wider than AA-KK. I've seen people with 3bet ranges from junk through Ax, connected paint, any pp. And you've got dead money in the pot that, against a wider range, likely gives you equity to shove. Also, I'd bet there's a % that this guy folds to the shove (even if it's small) that you can add in... That being said, I agree with Daven in that you've only got 5bb in right now -- not wanting to play for stacks with AKo is "at worst a small mistake"... |
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| wellrounded08 |
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Ok. I'm getting that now. Effective stack here IS 180xBB so, I personally won't feel comfortable stacking off with: Unknown nit I guess I do have to factor in some FE since i've seen these villains fold w/ .30$ behind in a 4 dollar pot... |
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| Jack Sawyer |
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oh LOL, i didnt see the call/raise line, i misread the hand nah, his range is skewed a lot more towards AA, some KK, and very few QQs The fact that you have AK minimizes this though, but this line is still so fucked up clear fold, or blindly apply concept 22 
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
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http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI |
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| wellrounded08 |
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| oskar |
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I still think that most of the time when you call there it's good... and he has about 70bb, I don't know where you went wrong there. |
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| wellrounded08 |
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| oskar |
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Just played this. I rest my case. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (5 handed) - Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com UTG ($1.98) MP ($1.76) Button ($4.35) Hero (SB) ($5) BB ($2.04) Preflop: Hero is SB with A K2 folds, Button raises to $4.35 (All-In), Hero calls $4.33, 1 fold Flop: ($8.74) 8 6 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)Turn: ($8.74) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)River: ($8.74) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)Total pot: $8.74 Results in white below: Button had 3 4 (one pair, sixes).Hero had A K (one pair, sixes).Outcome: Button won $4.37, Hero won $8.31 |
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| wellrounded08 |
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| that's a little different, your villain didn't limp/raise very different. | |||
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| daven |
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now fold, folding here isn't the reason you aren't beating micros... |
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| wellrounded08 |
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| daven |
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| yourfather |
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At micros barring reads that say he's a huge nit I would get it in here every time. At 25nl and a little 50nl I've see shortstackers shove (and sometimes limp/shove) with like 66+ A10+, KJ+ alot. They want to see a cheap flop and then when you raise them they shove because they don't want to play postflop. Especially since you are raising from the button and he thinks he has a lot of FE. |
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| oskar |
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SB ($8.73) Hero (BB) ($5) UTG ($6.64) Button ($3.60) Preflop: Hero is BB with 10 KUTG calls $0.04, Button calls $0.04, SB calls $0.04 Hero raises $0.16, Button calls $0.16, UTG calls $0.14, SB raises to $8.73 (All-In), 3 folds Total pot: $0.64 Results in black below: SB had 2 2 (one pair, twos).Outcome: SB won $9.21[/color] |
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| wellrounded08 |
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BTW: I always welcome being wrong when against a solid Argument, one in which is not random facts or obscure examples. |
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| oskar |
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I just played this hand the next day and thought of this thread and posted it. If you know it's -EV, why do you even bother posting this thread? I call there every time, and I'm rarely an underdog. Take it for what it's worth. The only reason for me not to call there was if I knew the player. Without any read, I don't see how you can fold. The last two hands I posted - I posted them immediately after I played them, I didn't look them up. I think you're giving away a lot of value, but I DONT MIND you giving away alot of value. |
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| Now is it different if the villian four-bets us? Can we say we're behind that range even in the microes? | |||
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| wellrounded08 |
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At best, I'm usually 2:1 to win Worst I'm dominated. Usually a slight underdog however to PP's. So I don't mind folding. All the good players I've talked to agree. Without a Read that villain is a straight up maniac, I'm folding all day everyday, and it's AT WORST A minor mistake. |
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| bigspenda73 |
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| 3:1, not 2:1 if you're talking about AK | |||
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| jyms |
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| the limp/RR is almost always a monster. I fold this almost everytime | |||
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| oskar |
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Just an hour ago I played a hand against a guy I play against regularly, and he plays somewhat solid poker... doesn't take many risks. I have a lot of player notes, none suggest that he's a maniac. I raised UTG with QQ, he called, the bb min-raised to 32c, I 4-bet to 1,2 and he pushed all-in for 12$ (I had 16). At this point I'm hoping he has JJ or AK, but he turned over KJ. When I post that situation here and suggest that it would even be possible that KJ could be in his range, everybody would call me crazy. I know many people here have more experience than me. And at 25NL this is a whole different situation. But at 5NL... I don't know. Maybe it's different at PokerStars... looks like everybody here plays at stars, so maybe the players are better there, I wouldn't know. |
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| jyms |
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your not following along. IT was a limp/RR!!!! |
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| oskar |
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Is that you're screen name? If it is, I'll put a post-it note next to my screen to limp-raise your ass should we ever meet. Players who do not understand the concept of pre-flop raises often get frustrated when they wanted to play a hand and they constantly get raised... They realize they're probably not going to hit the flop AGAIN, and push. I genuinely would not be surprised to see someone turn over 55 here. I wouldn't be surprised to see KK either, but in the long run, I think you're ahead here most of the time - at 5NL. |
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| oskar |
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Just paused four tables to post this. I hope I'm not getting flamed, I'm trying to make a point here. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (9 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com SB ($3.29) BB ($2.31) UTG+1 ($4.96) Hero (MP1) ($5) MP2 ($6.10) MP3 ($5) CO ($1.90) Button ($5) Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K , A1 fold, SB calls $0.04, 1 fold, BB calls $0.04, 2 folds, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises $0.20, 1 fold, BB raises $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises $2.76, BB calls $1.87 (All-In) Flop: ($4.70) 5 , 4, J (2 players, 1 all-in)Turn: ($4.70) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)River: ($4.70) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)Total pot: $4.70 Results in white below: BB had 10 , A (one pair, tens).Hero had K , A (high card, Ace).Outcome: BB won $4.47 |
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| daven |
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| again, a very different example - for starters you are the person raising all-in... It's hard to interpret the rest of the action as there is something wrong with the hand posted... | |||
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| oskar |
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The guy in his example didn't raise AI either. He basically raised AI... but I doubt that he knew that. I know the card converter keeps putting people in the wrong position, messes up bet sizes, makes it 0NL... I don't know how it does it. He limped in EP- he then min-raised to my raise instead of going apeshit and raising 6 times the initial raise, but what his motivation was - only god knows. The point is he limp-raised with Ax and was willing to get his money in with it. And it happens all the time. If I keep watching out for it I can probably post 5 more hands like that in the next week. I'll spare you, but I would bet money on at least one limp-raise resulting in an all-in with even less than AT. |
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| bigspenda73 |
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Everyone just need to understand 2 things: 1. Pot Odds 2. Hand combinations 2 is more likely a much newer concept to you. In poker there are X number of possible hands that can be dealt, not 221 or whatever different hands, but 1326 different combinations of hands that you can be dealt. Let's look at AKo for example, this is not 1 hand, because the frequency you are dealt it is different than say, AA. There are 12 different card-combination that can make AKo (AhKs is different than AsKh). Offsuit hands have 12 combos, suited hands have 4, and paired hands have 6. When you are dealt AKo, it also affects other possible starting hand frequencies. Let's look at the 6 combos for AA: AdAc AhAc AsAc AhAd AsAd AsAh Now, let's say we were dealt AhKs, what does this do to the frequency or chance that someone else was dealt AA. AdAc AhAc AsAc AhAd AsAd AsAh You can see half of the combinations are no longer available. Therefore, the chances that someone was dealt AA is greatly reduced due to us holding AhKs, the exact same can be said for KK. Because of this we do not have to worry as much about running into AA/KK here and can go ahead and stack off with AKo/AKs PF. Of course, factors like player types, stack sizes, and pot odds all play a vital role as well. |
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| Stacks |
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Okay, so I understand this is a limp/re-raise (flat/re-raise if you must) and there is a caller caught in between. And while we do have an Ace and a King blocker cutting the chances they have AA/KK in half, I don't think we should be stacking off here. For one, if you notice villians stack size he has raised to 31bb leaving himself with only 41bb. And we must put in another 26bb to call. That would make the pot >60bb, leaving the villian with less than a PSB on the flop and us in position, which sets him up for a flop shove in most cases. And since we miss the flop 2/3rd of the time, and he is shoving the flop the majority of the time, then I think I'm sure we can agree we can't just call preflop. So that leaves either a 4b or a fold. Well what do you think villian is stacking off here with that we beat? I mean he has pretty much already committed himself, but "unless" he is doing this as a bluff our hand isn't going to fair well against a 4bAI calling range, which is gonna be mainly big pocketpairs, some of which crush us, and others we are a slight dog to. And in the fact that the limp/reraise is weighted heavily towards AA/KK (he CAN still have it), and I think this is a fold. I'm pretty sure I would fold this a majority of the time against an unknown at 50nl/100nl. If I knew the player or had significant stats, or seen him do this, then obviously the chances of me stacking off here increase. But against an unknown, in what is probably a marginal situation, I would fold and save the variance for another time. I think if folding is a mistake here (not convinced yet. Haven't seen the math), then it's a small mistake at worst. Just my little take on the situation. I'll probably be back later and run some math on this to see how it fairs, and post that up if I get a solid answer. Also oskar, I know you are convinced you should stack off here (and I'm unsure, but looking for the answer), but posting other hands doesn't really help here. For one a few of the hands you have posted are worthless (hint....You had a 6 and a 3). And just because one player is willing to make this player with a worse hand doesn't show anything and we must realize that (1) this is a different villain, so he has different tendencies. Not all villains are the same. And (2) You saw a worst hand THIS time. His range was still comprised of a lot of hands you didn't want to see. Maybe he lost focus at the time and made this play, maybe he was tilted, or maybe he thought you were making a move. Doesn't mean you are always ahead here. I've stacked off pre-flop with some pretty weird shit at times, but only against specific villains. And no I'm not advocating to always fold AK preflop when faced with an all-in. But reads, history, stats, help determine whether you do felt or not. |
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| MehFU |
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| stack off for meta game value. but dont do it a different player does it to you, they will think they have u dominated with AA/KK and do it to meta u. | |||
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| a500lbgorilla |
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 Smithers, use the amnesia ray. You mean the revolver, sir? Precisely. |
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| MehFU |
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riiiight. a short stack limp raises u. its an auto shove. u have predefined your preflop limp raise shove back "range". because if it comes to showdown everyone on the table will think ur range here is AA/KK/AQ+/QQ ish. there is the setup for the meta game (a game within a game where prior history has set up the play that the thinking player (your opponenet) is waiting to set up with a limp reraise (hoping you will shove) 10 hands later u get AK in late and 2 limpers. effective stacks are 30 bbs deep. u raise the limpers 4bbs and the first limper reraises u 15 bbs. heres the science bit: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 36.429% 34.71% 01.72% 367279164 18216528.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ } Hand 1: 63.571% 61.85% 01.72% 654491652 18216528.00 { QQ+ } your range is the top one (u happen to have AK in this case) so GIVEN the fact that you have reraised AK and SHOVED over the top before. the limp reraise here is +ev because opponents range is ahead of you. that is an example of meta game is. the way to combat this is to only raise 4x 2 limpers and shove back with KK+ next time. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 64.650% 60.76% 03.89% 162302088 10389714.00 { KK+ } Hand 1: 35.350% 31.46% 03.89% 84037908 10389714.00 { QQ+ } and there u have it. |
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| a500lbgorilla |
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| One more time please. | |||
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray. You mean the revolver, sir? Precisely. |
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| bode |
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| the level of retardation is off the charts ITT. this is a shove all day. As spenda illustrated, with card removal there are only 3 combo's each of AA/KK and were talking about a 1/2 stacker at 5nl. you are flipping here alot, but your also dominating him a good portion of the time. | |||
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| MehFU |
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can i just say that card removal theory is total bullshit. relying on the probabilty that a player doesnt have AA or KK just because you have AK has NO BASIS IN REAL WORLD SITUATIONS AT ALL. im not denying that this is a limp raise reraise is a shove all day against a shorty and its benefits are clear because it sets you up for meta game later. this is the only real use of this move, u dont do it because you think u are best. u do it because it allows players to get it into their head that you over play AK when all you are doing is taking a calculated risk with a short stack in the hope that u can get it in 5-1 favorite later with AA or KK against a big stack. i would say more often than not this shove back move is ev neutral. |
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| bode |
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| a500lbgorilla |
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray. You mean the revolver, sir? Precisely. |
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| MehFU |
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just because you have AK it does not follow that a player is less likely to have AA or KK in a PARTICULAR hand. over all if you were to take a random sample over thousands of hands this would be probabilistically true it does not apply to the real world because the player in the receiving end of a shove has a CHOICE. if you do not understand this then clearly u play AK like its the nuts. |
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| a500lbgorilla |
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 Let's see how deep the meta-hole goes. |
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray. You mean the revolver, sir? Precisely. |
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| MehFU |
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| well put. | |||
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| Gefunkt |
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There are 52 cards in the deck. I have two of them. The two cards I have are an ace and a king. So I know for damn sure that of the 50 cards that I do not have, there are three aces and three kings. Let's say the two cards I have are not an ace and a king. I then know with absolute certainty than there are FOUR aces and FOUR kings in the 50 cards that I cannot see. I should put some statistics equations right here, but what it boils down to is that 3 < 4, so for a PARTICULAR hand, my knowledge that there are fewer aces and kings available for the other guy to draw means that the probability of him having aces or kings is lower. Right? |
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| oskar |
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Xxstacks - I think it's pretty obvious that you have to raise him all-in here. You can't just call and hope to hit the flop. MeFuh, you are wrong because while he does have a choice - if his range is let's say TT+ then then he is less likely to have AA or KK and more likely to have any of the other hands. He does have a choice, but the pool he's drawing his cards from is different. |
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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| MehFU |
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gefunkt. your statement is correct in the long term. and this is why you raise preflop with ace king. however getting reraised limits the range of hands that a player has. hand runs like this: u raise AKs late. BB reraises u 12 bbs from ur original 3BB raise. u have 47 bbs behind. pot is 18 bbs. u shove. the BB now has a choice. if you allow the player to have a choice for a whole stack preflop the player can wait until he has you beat if you respond by shoving AK all day. this is exactly why you reraise AK because its so +EV however shoving 50ish bbs is -EV because only hands that are better are calling you. probability goes straight out of the window when a player has the cards in his hand at that moment. |
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| MehFU |
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oskar HES NOT DRAWING CARDS HE HAS THEM IN HIS HAND AND HE DREW THE CARDS BEFORE YOU. do dumb. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 37.815% 37.53% 00.29% 246749928 1891224.00 { AKs, AKo } Hand 1: 62.185% 61.90% 00.29% 406992360 1891224.00 { TT+ } ........ if his range is TT+ then he is winning your money. |
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| oskar |
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Gefunkt, the odds of drawing Aces OR Kings if we have none of them are 8/50 x 3/49. With us having AK the odds are 6/50 x 2/49 Or pretty exactly half as likely. |
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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| KoRnholio |
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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| According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... | |
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