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KK scary turn card???

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HarleyGuy13

01-26-2009, 08:05 AM Post subject: KK scary turn card???

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2008

Location: Oregon

Posts: 1,226

Villan is 55/27 but not a lot of history to go by.

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG dysp003 ($10.30)
UTG+1 angie8585 ($5.70)
MP1 M.DE POKE ($6.25)
MP2 alexia 71 ($10.00)
MP3 ioane17 ($5.99)
CO Hero ($5.22)
BTN HeVeH1TeR ($8.03)
SB djjimmymack ($8.16)
BB enigma1978 ($5.07)

Pre-flop: ($0.07, 9 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, angie8585 calls $0.05, M.DE POKE calls $0.05, 1 fold, ioane17 calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, djjimmymack calls $0.38, 1 fold, angie8585 calls $0.35, M.DE POKE folds, ioane17 folds

Flop:

($1.35, 3 players)
djjimmymack checks, angie8585 checks, Hero bets $0.80, djjimmymack calls $0.80, angie8585 calls $0.80

Turn:

($3.75, 3 players)
djjimmymack bets $1.90, angie8585 folds, Hero ??,

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The object is to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck."

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AFchung

01-26-2009, 08:17 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2008

Location: UCLA

Posts: 1,179

you bet the flop way too small here. it should be potted. we are multiway and the board is drawy

http://afchung.blogspot.com/

bigspenda73

01-26-2009, 12:08 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

Quote:

Originally Posted by AFchung

you bet the flop way too small here. it should be potted. we are multiway and the board is drawy

Erpel

01-26-2009, 12:56 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2008

Posts: 605

On this board, with this action, an overpair is a weak hand. Relative vs. absolute hand strength.

There will be better and more profitable spots.

A call would leave you with $2.1 behind and a pot of $7.5. Villain obviously intends to put you all-in on the river, and bets smaller on the turn to lure you in.

I would fold the turn.

The flop is a good situation to put out a bigger bet to price out draws.

Consider this: Let's say you bet the flop $1.35 and only the present villain calls, making a $4.05 pot on the turn - the turn comes - he bets you call turn - he bets you call all-in on the river. Let's do some math.

I'm going to run some example calculations with QcTc as the villain hand.

On the flop you are the favourite to win the hand with your overpair, and you will win the hand if the opponent does not improve. There are 9 cards in the deck that will improve the villain on the turn to a hand that beats you. If you put out a $1.35 bet villain is given odds of 2 to 1. He needs odds of 38 to 9 (roughly 4.2 to 1) so he cannot simply call profitably. He can only call profitably if he expect you to pay him off if he hits his flush.

The amount the villain needs to expect to win on his call needs to be $1.35 * 38/9 = $5.7. Already $2.7 of these are in the pot, so he needs to win on average $3 on later street betting every time he hits his flush on the turn for calling the flop to be profitable. When you make the $1.35 bet you have $3.47 left in your stack.

When the villain makes his flush, sometimes you will make a full house (hitting Kc on the turn and pairing the board on the river for instance) so he will lose anyway. And sometimes you will see that the flush completes, read your opponent as actually having the flush and fold your overpair. When you bet $1.35 on the flop, villain cannot expect to win $3.47 on later streets from you on average and for him to call the flop with a flush draw would be a pretty big mistake.

Let's say you (as in this case) only bet $0.80 on the flop. I'm going to pretend there's no second caller to make the math simpler (in reality I shouldn't calculate with a second caller, but rather give consideration to the possibility of a second caller in the villain's decision).

Villain has to call $0.80. With his 9 outs that means he needs to win $3.38 on average when he hits his flush. Already there is $2.15 in the pot, so he needs to win on average $1.23 on later streets from you where you have $4.02 still in your stack.

Villain is still incorrect to call the flop bet if you are a nit and never call any bets if the flush completes. But he is much less incorrect with the smaller flop bet. And if you're considering paying him off because you have a good pair you've just set up a situation where it's easiest to play optimally against you. A bigger flop bet could have prevented this. In fact, if you flop bet around $1.50 as a slight overbet then regardless if he is guaranteed to get all of your stack on the turn if he hits his flush he would still be wrong to call the flop bet.

In reality there is even more EV in betting simply because people might fold and let you have the pot uncontested, but it's worth considering what you are accomplishing by betting. The old adage goes that we bet to get money out of hands that we beat, to get better hands to fold and/or to protect our vulnerable hands. From another perspective you could also say that we bet to offer our opponent a chance to make a mistake. Our bet size influences the size of the mistake we are offering to our opponent (and may of course constitute a mistake of our own).

Also keep in mind that these calculations are a nice guideline, but they only really apply 100% if you know the exact hand your opponent is playing. Typically the situation is more complex than this, but I still think this kind of thing is worth thinking about.

If you have a read on this person that he will always bluff at scare cards you have to call here of course, but the little information you provide does not constitute a read. Until you have a solid read and you know exactly how to apply it and know for sure that it applies in this situation - err on the side of respecting bets, especially the bigger ones. While this one says it's a $1.9 bet, it's in reality an all-in because calling would commit you beyond any reasonable point of return.

HarleyGuy13

01-26-2009, 03:22 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Sep 2008

Location: Oregon

Posts: 1,226

Quote:

Originally Posted by AFchung

you bet the flop way too small here. it should be potted. we are multiway and the board is drawy

Makes total since!

Parasurama

01-26-2009, 03:36 PM

#6 (permalink)

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What if we have the Kc Erpel? Still a fold?

Erpel

01-26-2009, 04:06 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Mar 2008

Posts: 605

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parasurama

What if we have the Kc Erpel? Still a fold?

(I'm assuming we mean in our hand): Definitely no. First off it gives us a blocker to KcXc hands (probably just AcKc and KcQc) and it gives us a flush draw to what may be a higher flush (to QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c, 7c6c). More to the point perhaps, it gives us 9 (more) outs against the parts of our opponent range that crushes us right now (two pair, set). A pair that needs to improve to a set to beat something has only 2 outs and weak equity - the flush draw here makes all the difference.

With the Kc I'd shove here and not think about it much. If I'm called and behind an ace-high flush it's a cooler. (AcQc, AcTc, Ac8c)

AFchung

01-26-2009, 06:20 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2008

Location: UCLA

Posts: 1,179

as played, i'd fold. villain flats the flop and when the straight and flush draw hits, he donks into us. i dont see how we're ever ahead here

http://afchung.blogspot.com/

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KK scary turn card???

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