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KK overpair in SB faces limp, call, then shove on turn (5NL micro)

  
 
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rowhousepd
Old 08-04-2010, 09:44 AM     Post subject: KK overpair in SB faces limp, call, then shove on turn (5NL micro) #1 (permalink)  
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 In this hand I'm up against a tight passive micro player who goes to the showdown way too much: VPIP 14, PFR 1, AF 0.5, WTSD 48(!). I've seen him call sets on the flop, and limp in strong -- but then again, so does everyone at the micros

Pretty standard PF w/ him limping from LP then calling my raise, then calling a large bet on a dry flop. The turn didn't scare me too much ... until he shoves to my bet. Did he maybe pair a Q on the flop then and made second pair w/ that 6? Did me make a set of 6's on the turn? Was he slow playing three Q's and unleashing on the turn?

Full Tilt - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

LP: $2.32
CO: $3.17
BTN: $6.78
Hero (SB): $5.00
BB: $3.41
UTG: $0.83
UTG+1: $8.74
MP: $9.55
MP+1: $4.00

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K K
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.05, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, BB calls $0.15, CO calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.60, 3 players) 8 2 Q
Hero bets $0.50, fold, CO calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.60, 2 players) 6
Hero bets $1.45, CO raises to $2.47 and is all-in,
Hero...?
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JKDS
Old 08-04-2010, 10:10 AM #2 (permalink)  
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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nonofyobiz
Old 08-04-2010, 04:28 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I'll take a stab at a range here ...
AA,QQ,88,22,AQs,KQs,Q8s,AQo,KQo

being a 14% vpip i can't see him have 8-6 to often
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OngBonga
Old 08-04-2010, 05:35 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Insta snap call. What, we getting 4.5:1 on our money here, we're winning this more than once in four surely?

Really, he's either hit his set or he's got top pair and thinks you're full of shit. I don't think we can discount AK clubs entirely. Ya he's tight, but he's seeing nearly half his hands to showdown. Stations love AK even when missed, oh yes they do. Maybe he's got a "solid" read on you and has you on AK too. Yay he's freerollin' at the turn. Jajaja shove woo yay oh shit kings. Whatever, four and a half to one we've got. We only need to catch a weaker hand once in four to clear profit. I can't call this fast enough.
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ongies gonna ong
 
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bhaley66
Old 08-04-2010, 06:19 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I'll give this a shot. Take note, that I'm learning putting opponents on ranges, so I suck at it... For now!

PF Range:
22-QQ, A2s+, ATo+, QJs, KQs, KJs

Flop Range:
22, 88-QQ, A2s+, ATo+, QJs, KQs, KJs

Turn Range:
22, 88-QQ, A2s, A6s, A8s, ATs+, AQo+, KQ

With this range on the Turn PokerStove says:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,480 games 0.031 secs 596,129 games/sec

Board: 8h 2d Qc 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.049% 20.05% 00.00% 3705 0.00 { QQ-88, 22, ATs+, A8s, A6s, A2s, KQs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 79.951% 79.95% 00.00% 14775 0.00 { KK }


---


With us having 80% Equity, this is a definite call because:
1.02/(1.6+1.45+2.47)=~.1847 or 18.5%

Therefore, you need 18.5% equity to make a call profitable with the given range, and you have 80%...

Just hope my range is at least close...lol
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OngBonga
Old 08-04-2010, 06:42 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Board: 8h 2d Qc 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 74.56% 00.44% 3707 22.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 25.000% 24.56% 00.44% 1221 22.00 { JJ+, 66, 22, A8s+, A6s, KQs, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }



This is an easy call. Easy easy easy. I estimate we need around 23% equity to be making profit, and we have three times that. Even if this is a bad beat, one dollar for a five dollar plus pot with 75% equity is a hard on for me.

Is my range accurate? I'm new to this range thing, I must confess.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
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Hoopy
Old 08-04-2010, 06:49 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 If you choose to bet the turn that large you're pot committed as you need 16% equity to call and vs even a super strong range you have that {QQ+, 88, 66, 22, AQs}.
 
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OngBonga
Old 08-04-2010, 06:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 16% equity is needed? May I ask how you reach this figure? My figure of 23% was an off-the-cuff estimate. I figure if we have a dollar to call into a $5.50 pot... we're getting 4.5:1... yeah ok I've estimated the wrong side of 20%, I can see what I've done.
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Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
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NightGizmo
Old 08-04-2010, 09:27 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
16% equity is needed? May I ask how you reach this figure? My figure of 23% was an off-the-cuff estimate. I figure if we have a dollar to call into a $5.50 pot... we're getting 4.5:1... yeah ok I've estimated the wrong side of 20%, I can see what I've done.
Calling $1 into a $5.50 is 1:5.5 odds, which is (1/6.5) = 15.4%.
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daven
Old 08-04-2010, 11:24 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 Look at stack sizes before making your bets.
Iso bigger preflop. You can bet flop smaller cos you are not scared of draws getting good odds cos there aren't draws out there and you don't need to bet that big to get stacks in over 3 streets AND you are going to induce folds from a lot of hands you want calls from by betting that big.
As played, you can't bet turn that big and then fold cos of lol-pot-odds and he may have KK/AQ/KQ. You're going to lose a bunch (like, over 50%) once he raises the turn, but you still have about no choice cos of your sizing.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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spoonitnow
Old 08-04-2010, 11:40 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
Board: 8h 2d Qc 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 74.56% 00.44% 3707 22.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 25.000% 24.56% 00.44% 1221 22.00 { JJ+, 66, 22, A8s+, A6s, KQs, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }



This is an easy call. Easy easy easy. I estimate we need around 23% equity to be making profit, and we have three times that. Even if this is a bad beat, one dollar for a five dollar plus pot with 75% equity is a hard on for me.

Is my range accurate? I'm new to this range thing, I must confess.
Tight passives aren't going to limp/call pre, call flop, and shove turn J9. They're also unlikely to limp/call AA preflop. Why would he have As6s on the turn? Etc. A lot of the hands in this range don't make sense at all, so try again and see what you can come up with.
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daven
Old 08-04-2010, 11:49 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 try JJ+, black 99, red TT, 88, 22, KQ, AQ, QJs if you're looking for a range to plug into stove. Think about why.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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OngBonga
Old 08-05-2010, 02:22 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 Cheers spoon. We can see he calls 50% of hands to showdown. Ace high fits the bill for a station call down, no? Yeah for sure AA is likely to 3bet, but then again 1% pfr? I mashed this range into stove because I figure stations call down ace high and gutshots, if he picks up a fd on the turn do we know if he's capable of bluffing this spot?

I think my problem is determining what hands our villain continues with here. A 14/1 station is gonna see flops with high cards and pairs, with strong scs I imagine. He's then gonna call down his draws, pairs and overcards if he's seeing nearly half his hands to showdown. But this shove, does a 14/1 station do this with ace rag that's picked up a small pair and flush draw? Yeah A6s makes no sense, he can't pair and have the flush draw, my mistake. But I'm not surprised if a station is still in at the turn with a suited ace here, such as A8 or even AK. And the gutshots on the flop turning into flush draws on the turn, but I don't actually expect this guy to shove without a pair at least.

Ok let's go super-tight with the range and see what stove says.
(leaving AA in the range because he's 1% pfr, people really do limp and flat aces at the micros in multi way pots).


Board: 8h 2d Qc 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.592% 48.31% 01.28% 829 22.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 50.408% 49.13% 01.28% 843 22.00 { QQ+, 88, 66, 22, AQs+, KQs, AQo, KQo }


Even if we think he only does this with top pair and better, we still have around 50% equity. Can we make this range any tighter? If we remove AA, it improves our equity, so we're never less that 50% equity here on any realistic range are we?



Thanks gizmo, I was tired last night and my maths was all over the place. My understanding of pot odds is usually very good, it's equity where I'm struggling due to the need to put a villain on an accurate range. It's interesting to see just how much equity we lose when we remove drawing hands from the villains range.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
ongies gonna ong
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 08-06-2010, 01:00 AM #14 (permalink)  
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 don't bet so huge on flop/turn

get it in over 3 streets not 2.5
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