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KK with A on flop against a short stack

  
 
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miracleriver
Old 10-22-2009, 09:35 PM     Post subject: KK with A on flop against a short stack #1 (permalink)  
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No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($4.35)
UTG+1 ($9.70)
MP1 ($4.85)
MP2 ($3.70)
MP3 ($10)
Hero (CO) ($10.20)
Button ($2.80)
SB ($4.15)
BB ($6.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
UTG bets $0.30, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.30, Hero raises $1.20, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.85) 6, A, 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero???

Opponent only has a little more than pot-size bet left.

This is a tough spot. I feel I will only get called by a better hand if I bet, and yet not betting is an open invitation for opp to bet the turn with me being in the dark. How should I play the rest of the hand?
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dranger7070
Old 10-22-2009, 09:42 PM #2 (permalink)  
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check back the flop, probably fold the turn if he jams it. it sucks, but you gotta let it go sometimes.
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acoss3006
Old 10-22-2009, 09:51 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I would bet here. I think you need to let villian define his hand, rather than just assume he has an Ace and let him shaft you on the turn. I cant see why his range is all AX's (QQ, JJ are probably both still there even if he is a tight raiser UTG).
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Outlaw
Old 10-22-2009, 09:56 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Check flop and ship turn. Too much money out there and the majority of his range that will get it all in might not if you bet the flop. If you check the flop he might think you don't have an ace and will possibly ship a pp.
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Stacks
Old 10-22-2009, 10:10 PM     Post subject: Re: KK with A on flop against a short stack #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miracleriver
This is a tough spot. I feel I will only get called by a better hand if I bet, and yet not betting is an open invitation for opp to bet the turn with me being in the dark. How should I play the rest of the hand?
And you think this is a bad thing?

If you assume his range is only Ax, then you check back the flop, and fold to a turn bet. But if you assume his range for calling your 3bet preflop includes TT-QQ/Ax/etc, and you don't feel like he calls a bet on the flop here with a worse hand (as you said), then why is checking behind and letting him get to the turn with his entire 3bet calling range (TT-QQ/Ax/etc if that's the case), in which you are still ahead alot of those hands. Hands that he would have folded to a bet on the flop?

There is no need to "define his range" if that means putting betting so that only better hands will calls in this case.
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nice_aiau
Old 10-22-2009, 11:10 PM     Post subject: Re: KK with A on flop against a short stack #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Quote:
Originally Posted by miracleriver
This is a tough spot. I feel I will only get called by a better hand if I bet, and yet not betting is an open invitation for opp to bet the turn with me being in the dark. How should I play the rest of the hand?
And you think this is a bad thing?

If you assume his range is only Ax, then you check back the flop, and fold to a turn bet. But if you assume his range for calling your 3bet preflop includes TT-QQ/Ax/etc, and you don't feel like he calls a bet on the flop here with a worse hand (as you said), then why is checking behind and letting him get to the turn with his entire 3bet calling range (TT-QQ/Ax/etc if that's the case), in which you are still ahead alot of those hands. Hands that he would have folded to a bet on the flop?

There is no need to "define his range" if that means putting betting so that only better hands will calls in this case.
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miracleriver
Old 10-22-2009, 11:21 PM     Post subject: Re: KK with A on flop against a short stack #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nice_aiau
Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Quote:
Originally Posted by miracleriver
This is a tough spot. I feel I will only get called by a better hand if I bet, and yet not betting is an open invitation for opp to bet the turn with me being in the dark. How should I play the rest of the hand?
And you think this is a bad thing?

If you assume his range is only Ax, then you check back the flop, and fold to a turn bet. But if you assume his range for calling your 3bet preflop includes TT-QQ/Ax/etc, and you don't feel like he calls a bet on the flop here with a worse hand (as you said), then why is checking behind and letting him get to the turn with his entire 3bet calling range (TT-QQ/Ax/etc if that's the case), in which you are still ahead alot of those hands. Hands that he would have folded to a bet on the flop?

There is no need to "define his range" if that means putting betting so that only better hands will calls in this case.
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Indeed.
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acoss3006
Old 10-23-2009, 12:02 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Im still confused here.

If we think Villian has more in his range than AX hands (which I do)..

Why arent we getting value from the non AX hands (QQ, JJ etc) by betting the flop?

And why are we letting him get a free card that could beat us?

Also, given that we showed some strength PF with our reraise, might we fold out some weaker AX's (which currenly beat us) with some strength on the flop?

I think its Harrington that talks about defining his situation by betting. I think Villians response to a flop bet tells us alot here. I also wouldnt mind too much to take the pot down on the flop.

Im not sure what we do if we check back the flop and villian bets on a seemingly blank turn (which, if I were villian, I would do given hero is basically telling me that the A is scary)? Would we call him down?
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TheBowlBoy
Old 10-23-2009, 05:05 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acoss3006
Im still confused here.

If we think Villian has more in his range than AX hands (which I do)..

Why arent we getting value from the non AX hands (QQ, JJ etc) by betting the flop?

And why are we letting him get a free card that could beat us?

Also, given that we showed some strength PF with our reraise, might we fold out some weaker AX's (which currenly beat us) with some strength on the flop?

I think its Harrington that talks about defining his situation by betting. I think Villians response to a flop bet tells us alot here. I also wouldnt mind too much to take the pot down on the flop.

Im not sure what we do if we check back the flop and villian bets on a seemingly blank turn (which, if I were villian, I would do given hero is basically telling me that the A is scary)? Would we call him down?
Here's where you're getting confused imo.

Since there are worse hands like TT-QQ you feel that a valuebet is in order. But you already stated that you don't feel that he will "continue" with worse to a bet on the flop, so how do you bet for value??

In order for a bet to before, your hand needs to be ahead of your villain's calling range, not their current range. So in this case, even though his range includes a bunch of hands that you're ahead of, a bet on the flop will ALWAYS get called by a better hand and will often result in worse hands folding so it is infact not for value, and you're actually sorta turning your hand into a bluff.

By checking back the flop your opponent is going to have a tough time folding not only TT-QQ but he is also on occasion going to try to take the pot away with complete air on the turn.

All in all, it should usually feel pretty good about the rest of villains stack going in on the flop or the turn, but you're going to show bigger profits in the long run when the money goes in on the turn in this situation.

Don't worry about free cards here either. The 4% of the time that he turns a 2 outer is nothing in comparison to the 96% of the time that he misses, and you find yourself in a situation where he now will call a turn bet with a worse hand than yours.
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acoss3006
Old 10-23-2009, 05:17 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Thanks dude.

Twas another poster who said he wont continue with worse. I think he does continue with worse here fo'sure.

Nevertheless, your points remain valid. Will digest this tonight.
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sarbox68
Old 10-23-2009, 05:41 AM #11 (permalink)  
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If you bet the flop and he doesn't have an A, he's likely to fold. If he has an A you just gave him money. If you check the flop, he may assume that you don't have an A, and his JJ,QQ, etc is still good and will bet the Turn. Yes, he may actually have an A, but you're f-ked either way on that... and you can't go folding KK everytime an A hits the board. This way, you maximize what you make when you actually are ahead, and potentially even minimize a little of what you lose when you're behind.
 
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acoss3006
Old 10-23-2009, 07:01 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarbox68
If you bet the flop and he doesn't have an A, he's likely to fold. If he has an A you just gave him money. If you check the flop, he may assume that you don't have an A, and his JJ,QQ, etc is still good and will bet the Turn. Yes, he may actually have an A, but you're f-ked either way on that... and you can't go folding KK everytime an A hits the board. This way, you maximize what you make when you actually are ahead, and potentially even minimize a little of what you lose when you're behind.
Sweet, thanks
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rpm
Old 10-23-2009, 07:12 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 yep. definitely a checked flop for me. you get far more value from the part of his range you crush (88-QQ) on the turn than on the flop and he may also turn some lower pairs or some other D-range hands he may have into bluffs on the turn. a bet on the flop gets called by any ace he is calling pf 3bets with and probably folds out all but JJ,QQ (even these may also fold). i may even call a shove on the turn.
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acoss3006
Old 10-23-2009, 08:56 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Been thinking about this since I got home, and ive got it. Complete change in thinking. Thanks all for your contributions.
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Stacks
Old 10-23-2009, 11:01 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 Basically the money is going in. There is only 1 SPR behind. Say you check behind the flop, and he shoves the turn. You only need like 34% equity to make the call. If there is even a chance he is doing this with worse than an Ace, you probably have to call.

As for the flop check behind or shove, it probably doesn't really matter. This is a clear way ahead/way behind situation. So there is little improving on future cards. The thing is he's a terrible shortstacker, as he shouldn't have TT-QQ/AK in his range, as he should have 4bet shoved those preflop. However, it's like he does, and I doubt he folds them to a shove here on the flop. There could be merit to shoving before a "scare card" rolls off that might reduce his calling range (such as a Q coming and now he doesn't wan to put money in with JJ). However, keeping with the assumption that he is bad, he probably has some stupid stuff in his range sometimes that you are ahead of that would benefit from you checking back the flop and calling his turn shove (44, JTs, etc).

You know the villain, if you think he will call a shove with worse (JJ/QQ), then I'd shove. If not, then check back.
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ProZachNation
Old 10-23-2009, 05:29 PM #16 (permalink)  
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I have not read any other responses and I have been away form the game for a year so take it with a grain of salt and please someone correct all my mistakes.

And this is a great hand to post, this is a really really common situation these types of hands versus shortstacks.


Ok so UTG opens up for 3x raise: no reads so that means either you just sat down or he has not done anything out of line.
So lets figure out a range: AA, AK, QQ are most likely shoving over your raise or should be. Even JJ TT 99 88 is a possibility to being shoving when you raise.

So we can guess his range to call your raise is AK( very slim as you have KK and he probably puts it in earlier) AQ (good hand to open with ok to call there) AJ possibility, AT and even less AX. Other possibilities are JJ lower to any PP but any pocket pair is making a mistake here by calling you raise because they do not have odds to flop a set and get paid.

With his stack his range is most likely narrowed between AQ,AJ,AT and Higher pocket pairs JJ-88 maybe.

His check means one of two things, he has pocket pair and missed, he is going to pretty much insta fold to a bet the A scared him, or he hit and is trapping.

how can you tell on the flop, well you can't. Really what is there to be scared of on the turn, he probably is not going to improve his hand, or he is already ahead and you will not improve.

So he has 3.05 left and pot is 2.85: I would put it in you are getting 2:1 on your money if he does call. So he calls with AX you lose he is calling with AX 100% of the time. He has a high PP he could be calling what about 60% of the time.

So if 50% of the time he has you beat and 50% of the time you have better hand with about 30% of the time you winning a 9 dollar pot, 20% of the time you winning a $3 pot.

Lets do the math if I can (been awhile)

.5 (-3) + .3 (+6) + (.2) (+3) = .90

so over all if you shove and our ranges are about right you should be making a dollar in the long run.


So best bet is to probably shove the flop. And put him all-in.


And please someone feel free to critique this post! It has been a long time for me.
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argash
Old 10-23-2009, 07:00 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Not sure if it's been pointed out yet but your SPR here is 1.16 so your definitely getting it all in here no matter what line the betting takes on the flop.
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jyms
Old 10-23-2009, 07:56 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 Stacks is bang on. I'm letting him put the money in first since he will bet with a lot more than he calls with. If we get to the river I will put it in myself since he's not going to. With stack sizes this is pretty cam easy. FWIW your 3bet pre may not have been fully thought out. You only 2x'd the pot witha shorty opening.
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argash
Old 10-23-2009, 08:11 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jyms
Stacks is bang on. I'm letting him put the money in first since he will bet with a lot more than he calls with. If we get to the river I will put it in myself since he's not going to. With stack sizes this is pretty cam easy. FWIW your 3bet pre may not have been fully thought out. You only 2x'd the pot witha shorty opening.
I agree. 3x the raise + 1 for the caller, should have made it 1.50
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