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!Luck
Old 08-08-2010, 04:29 AM     Post subject: KK 6max 5NL #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 40/10 with 6.7% 3 bet over 42 hands. Also, I keep a stat on my hud called "call preflop raise" his is 31%, I think my fold here is too nitty

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($8.69)
Hero (UTG) ($5)
MP ($12.87)
CO ($6.75)
Button ($4.96)
SB ($9.33)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, Button calls $0.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.47) 3, 2, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, Button calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.27) K (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, Button raises to $4.36 (All-In)

Total pot: $2.87 | Rake: $0.14

I feel like he would raise most of his sets on the flop. The thing is all his sets are left in, then I have 57% equity, if not I only have 22%. My pot odds are 3:1 or about 33% equity. insult me. I am nit.
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Micro2Macro
Old 08-08-2010, 05:12 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think I like c/jam
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!Luck
Old 08-08-2010, 05:18 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 c/jam? I find that if i bet i would get called but tons of random Ahx draws, plus who knows what kind of crap. I am always amazed. Most of my lines are b/f b/f, with some being b/3bet. Plus, his gap between vp/pfr is wide enough for him not bet his flush draws so i can't be sure he bets for me to over shove on top.
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Micro2Macro
Old 08-08-2010, 05:19 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 these guys aren't folding jack shit on this flop to a cbet alot of his range will be like overcards, random pairs that he bets when checked to, and XhXx.

once he bets with a heart draw he won't fold it. this turn is a scare card to all these hands he will bet in his range if you check, thus he will fold them and you miss value from basically the only method of getting value.

(in short this is a good turn to continuation bet as a bluff)
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JKDS
Old 08-08-2010, 05:25 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 If you give him every single possible combination of flush, A4, and 33,22,55...then we have 32% equity.

If you give him that, and 64 we still have 30% equity.

This is ignoring that he could have AA or AK or some kind of draw sometimes.

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philly and the phanatics
Old 08-08-2010, 05:32 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
If you give him every single possible combination of flush, A4, and 33,22,55...then we have 32% equity.

If you give him that, and 64 we still have 30% equity.

This is ignoring that he could have AA or AK or some kind of draw sometimes.

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dont we need like 38% equity here?
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JKDS
Old 08-08-2010, 05:38 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 I assumed his 33% was correct. Apparently its 35.6%...but thats missing the point . With all possible 72 combinations of flushes/straights, we're not in terrible shape with him only having 9 of sets. Obviously though, he doesnt have all the possible flush combos or straight combos, and he likely has worse than a set sometimes as well.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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Icanhastreebet
Old 08-08-2010, 09:46 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
I assumed his 33% was correct. Apparently its 35.6%...but thats missing the point . With all possible 72 combinations of flushes/straights, we're not in terrible shape with him only having 9 of sets. Obviously though, he doesnt have all the possible flush combos or straight combos, and he likely has worse than a set sometimes as well.
Move up to where people respect your math.
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Monsieur_chat
Old 08-08-2010, 11:37 PM #9 (permalink)  
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PlayToWin
Old 08-09-2010, 06:52 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 Good fold, imo. It is a small sample size, but I don't see a 40/10 bluff shoving this. You are betting every street. He probably puts you on an OP or OC's that hit on the Turn and thinks you'll pay off to the shove. Don't do it.
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Icanhastreebet
Old 08-09-2010, 12:44 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PlayToWin View Post
Good fold, imo. It is a small sample size, but I don't see a 40/10 bluff shoving this. You are betting every street. He probably puts you on an OP or OC's that hit on the Turn and thinks you'll pay off to the shove. Don't do it.
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Donachello
Old 08-09-2010, 03:10 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by !Luck View Post
Plus, his gap between vp/pfr is wide enough for him not bet his flush draws so i can't be sure he bets for me to over shove on top.

wat? how does VPIP/PFR have anything to do with how he plays his draws here. m2m's c/jam line is nice although b/calling also seems fine.
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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Icanhastreebet
Old 08-09-2010, 03:57 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 I hate checking versus this player type because your going to give him a free card wayyyy too often. If he's calling flop to do something crazy he's probably just as likely to do something crazy when we bet but we also probably get 2 more streets from all his 2nd pairs and shit. if you check you also miss value from 1heart type hands that might free card, based on pre-flop reads not postflop so this could obviously be wrong.
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PlayToWin
Old 08-09-2010, 06:25 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donachello View Post
wat? how does VPIP/PFR have anything to do with how he plays his draws here. m2m's c/jam line is nice although b/calling also seems fine.
It says that he's a passive player PF (probably postflop, too) and when this player gets aggressive, you should pay attention. Calling PF and flop bets is passive, which is what we expect if he's on a flush draw. Shoving the turn is not passive. I think he does that with his made flush. I think it's less of a mistake to fold.

I've noticed a lot of advice in the BC to jam and shove and everyone jumps on board and tells why it's +ev using the beauty of mathematics (math sucks ). The only way I can see calling this is if you've seen villian bluff/semi-bluff shove previously, i.e. you have a read on him.
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spoonitnow
Old 08-09-2010, 07:38 PM #15 (permalink)  
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JKDS
Old 08-09-2010, 09:31 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by PlayToWin View Post
It says that he's a passive player PF (probably postflop, too) and when this player gets aggressive, you should pay attention. Calling PF and flop bets is passive, which is what we expect if he's on a flush draw. Shoving the turn is not passive. I think he does that with his made flush. I think it's less of a mistake to fold.

I've noticed a lot of advice in the BC to jam and shove and everyone jumps on board and tells why it's +ev using the beauty of mathematics (math sucks ). The only way I can see calling this is if you've seen villian bluff/semi-bluff shove previously, i.e. you have a read on him.
Please tell me more about how vpip/pfr indicates passivity and how mathematics is useless in poker, as i've been under the impression that the exact opposite was true for quite some time.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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PlayToWin
Old 08-09-2010, 09:39 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
Please tell me more about how vpip/pfr indicates passivity and how mathematics is useless in poker, as i've been under the impression that the exact opposite was true for quite some time.
Regarding vpip/pfr: Level?
Regarding math: MEH, was joking.
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JKDS
Old 08-09-2010, 09:43 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 No level. I dont follow your logic on how vpip/pfr indicates hes a passive player.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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PlayToWin
Old 08-09-2010, 09:59 PM #19 (permalink)  
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 Say we have 2 player stats and 2 player styles. It's a matching game.

Player 1 stats: 40/10
Player 2 stats: 15/12

Match theses styles:
A. Loose/Passive
B. Tight/Aggressive


As a ratio, the player 1 stats show he raises a small percent of his hands. That means he calls a large percent. Calling is a passive play. Thus, player 1 is more passive than player 2.

Please correct me if this is wrong. The only argument I see here is whether or not you want to make the leap that his preflop play translates directly to his postflop play.
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Donachello
Old 08-09-2010, 10:16 PM #20 (permalink)  
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 VPIP/PFR definitely are stats that track post flop play. *sarcasm*
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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JKDS
Old 08-09-2010, 10:18 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by PlayToWin View Post
The only argument I see here is whether or not you want to make the leap that his preflop play translates directly to his postflop play.
Thats exactly the arguement im making.

An added bonus, is that since he's 3bet 3 times already over 40 hands so he could be a passive player post flop that has been running hot...but its also likely that hes a fairly aggressive player thats running cold.

So we can't really say anything about how passive he is at all based souly on his pfr and vpip. I mean, he could also be a fit/folder, a fit/folder that shoves draws, a fit folder that is passive with draws etc etc etc.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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PlayToWin
Old 08-09-2010, 10:40 PM #22 (permalink)  
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 Fair enough. I did mention the small sample size. I still think it's a bigger mistake to call without reads. Everybody thinks I'm FOS. That's ok. I knew I was gonna get slammed when I disagreed.
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surviva316
Old 08-10-2010, 02:35 PM #23 (permalink)  
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 i haaaaaaaaaaaaate checking this turn.

@playtowin: point is, jkds already explained how villain rarely needs to have worse than a set...a friggin set, for calling to be profitable here. you could say that "villain rarely shoves draws," "villain rarely has AA on the turn" and "villain doesn't shove hands as bad as AK often", and it's still an easy call because he doesn't have to do any of those things very often for it to be profitable.

also, at the very least, you can say that even the most passive of villains are gonna be shoving massive draws like Ah5x
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