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The Journey to Understanding Pot Odds

  
 
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Monty3038
Old 11-16-2008, 06:14 PM     Post subject: The Journey to Understanding Pot Odds #1 (permalink)  
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After my responses to some recent posts were seen as inadequate or completely off base, I have had to do some re-evaluating of pot odds to understand the concept. I hopefully have understood it correctly now and I am going to post a few examples here to hopefully show I have it and also, maybe, just maybe help another noobie along the way.

POT ODDS

Pot odds is a way of determining if it is correct to call a bet based on the chance of your winning the pot as it stands. Your 'outs' or cards that can improve your hand are a major factor in this decision, as is the amount to call versus the amount already in the pot.

For examples on outs, see many other posts here. The pot for example is $10 and you need to call a $1 bet to continue, that would mean the pot is giving you 10 to 1 pot odds. (I am ignoring implied odds for now... will try to grasp that deeper in a few minutes).

Now, to make the call correctly, you have to have odds of improving your hand that are better than the 10 to 1 pot odds above. I have found that this is the concept that is hardest for me to grasp. Let me try to give a few examples: from my own play:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($7.70)
MP2 ($2.10)
CO ($10)
Button ($9.10)
SB ($11.75)
BB ($2.25)
Hero (UTG) ($9.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, Q
Hero calls $0.10, 3 folds, Button calls $0.10, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($0.35) 6, 3, 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.35) 4 (3 players)
BB bets $0.10, Hero ???

So, now on this hand I have two overcards, with potentially the following outs... Any Q (3), Any J (3), any spade (though may get beat by higher flush - 9) for a total of 15 outs. We have seen my two cards and 4 on the table, for 6 cards, leaving 46 cards that are unknown. 46-15 = 31 thus I am 31 to 15 against... or roughly 2 to 1 (thus the pot needs to be at least 2 times the bet to make it correct to call). The pot is .35 and I need to put in .10 to continue, offering me 3.5 to 1 odds. The correct play here would be to call, considering only where we are at now. In this hand I actually folded and the guy behind me raised to win with two pair.

This example might be easier... I know this is simple for you pros but us noobies have to learn it somewhere...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($11.30)
SB ($5.70)
Hero (BB) ($9.70)
UTG ($5.40)
UTG+1 ($0.70)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($9.95)
CO ($10.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, J
UTG calls $0.10, 4 folds, Button calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.40) A, Q, A (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.40) J (4 players)
SB bets $0.20, Hero ???

In this example, I have 7s Js in the BB... I'm checking along and then someone bets. My outs are really only the three 7s and the three Jacks. Thus I have 6 outs. We are at the turn already, so there are 46 cards we don't know, making it 40 to 6 or roughly 6.3 to 1 odds. The pot needs to be at least 6x my bet to make it profitable to call, so let's see what we are looking at... the pot is .60 with .20 for me call. Or 3 to 1... thus the call is not warranted here... IMO...

These are simple examples, but I've been struggling with understanding pot odds and I hope these are right, if someone would critique me I'd appreciate it... back to studying...
 
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spoonitnow
Old 11-16-2008, 06:21 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 You've got the right idea with the pot odds. Good work.

On the second hand though the 7s are not outs because your hand is still AAJJQ if a 7 comes on the river, and the jacks can hardly be considered outs since you're still losing to any Ace.
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Monty3038
Old 11-16-2008, 06:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
You've got the right idea with the pot odds. Good work.

On the second hand though the 7s are not outs because your hand is still AAJJQ if a 7 comes on the river, and the jacks can hardly be considered outs since you're still losing to any Ace.
Ah, excellent point and I totally missed it being so focused on trying to understand the odds... but for the odds part disregarding the potential outcomes it is good to hear I'm at least getting it.
 
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swiggidy
Old 11-16-2008, 06:30 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 1) Pre flop sucks, bet the flop
2) odds to what? you MAYBE have 2 outs to a J (not 3), a 7 doesn't do shit for you because you already have 2 pair.
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Stacks
Old 11-16-2008, 07:17 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 Good job Monty.. The only mistake I see is in the first hand you forgot to add the initial bet by villain into the current pot. That is there is $0.35c in the pot and villain bets $0.10c, meaning the pot is now $0.45c and you must call $0.10c giving you 4.5:1.
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