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J5s made me tank a bit

  
 
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sven00100
Old 05-24-2010, 02:00 AM     Post subject: J5s made me tank a bit #1 (permalink)  
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Villain was 29/11/39 over about 30-40 hands.
I have to win the river 1/3 hands to make this call here.

The tanking was trying to put him on a range. what do we think against a typical 29/11/39?

I am still in session, I just wanted to see what you guys thought. All of his prior bets that i can recall were pot bets or similar button press raises.

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1.28)
SB ($0.20)
Hero (BB) ($3.10)
UTG ($2.64)
MP ($4.57)
CO ($0.19)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 5
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, 1 fold, Button calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.07) 8, 8, J (3 players)
Hero bets $0.03, 1 fold, Button calls $0.03

Turn: ($0.13) A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($0.13) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.13, Hero folds

Total pot: $0.13
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jaytoi
Old 05-24-2010, 04:12 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Definitely dont fold. I dont think there are a huge amount of weak or strong aces he's limping on the BTN with here- i think it's much more weighted towards weak BWs and PPs, esp because hes often limping behind hoping for a good implied odds situation. On the river i think he feasibly will feel he can bet like 77+ for value here, hoping to get a w/e meh call with random A hi's . Maybe he has some Ax suited type hands here, but he isn't floating a rainbow flop with them. He'll probably call one street with these pps when you bet less than 1/2 pot with too.

His range for betting the river is pretty much Jx, 66-TT with the occasional 8 (maybe) and JJ.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
28 games 0.005 secs 5,600 games/sec
Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.714% 85.71% 00.00% 24 0.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 4 0.00 { JJ-99, 77-66, J8s, 98s, 87s }
---
Im ready this time.
 
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deucesomething
Old 05-24-2010, 04:53 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaytoi View Post
Definitely dont fold. I dont think there are a huge amount of weak or strong aces he's limping on the BTN with here- i think it's much more weighted towards weak BWs and PPs, esp because hes often limping behind hoping for a good implied odds situation. On the river i think he feasibly will feel he can bet like 77+ for value here, hoping to get a w/e meh call with random A hi's . Maybe he has some Ax suited type hands here, but he isn't floating a rainbow flop with them. He'll probably call one street with these pps when you bet less than 1/2 pot with too.

His range for betting the river is pretty much Jx, 66-TT with the occasional 8 (maybe) and JJ.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
28 games 0.005 secs 5,600 games/sec
Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.714% 85.71% 00.00% 24 0.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 4 0.00 { JJ-99, 77-66, J8s, 98s, 87s }
---
Aces are definitely a part of his range imo
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jaytoi
Old 05-24-2010, 04:57 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Ok, but which aces does he limp with OTB? and i would say even if there are quite a few aces, it's a pretty easy call as we only need 33 % equity vs a range which definitely contains underpairs .
Im ready this time.
 
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sven00100
Old 05-24-2010, 04:57 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deucesomething View Post
Aces are definitely a part of his range imo
This; How much, and how big a part?
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jaytoi
Old 05-24-2010, 05:02 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sven00100 View Post
This; How much, and how big a part?
Good question, i think some of it may come down to what you've seen him show down with. Keep in mind an 11 percent PFR range is wider than most people think, imo, and Stove's default puts all aces down to AT in it. So i think if he's raising all these aces, if he limps with an ace, it's likely to be a weaker one, and then idk why he'd call flop w/ a weak ace....

If we assume he limps behind weak suited aces and take this line, it's pretty much still an easy call.

Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.174% 52.17% 00.00% 72 0.00 { J5s }
Hand 1: 47.826% 47.83% 00.00% 66 0.00 { JJ-99, 77-66, A8s-A2s, J8s, 98s, 87s }
Im ready this time.
 
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sven00100
Old 05-24-2010, 02:25 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Alright, what I'm about to do might be horrible, but I'm just going to do it. When I used pokerstove, what I did to get a range was take the top 29%, and then eliminate the top 11%. I also don't think he's following pokerstove's top hands, and in a mw limped pot, may be limping some of the weaker cards in the top 11%, or some of the higher suited hands. Anyways here's what we get for a range::

If he played EVERY ONE of these hands on this flop, which is a horrible assumption IMO:

Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.736% 56.04% 07.69% 102 14.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 36.264% 28.57% 07.69% 52 14.00 { 77-55, A8s-A2s, K9s-K5s, Q9s-Q7s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo-A7o, KJo-K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Alright, now we'll go through his hands and eliminate some that he PROBABLY wouldn't be continuing on that flop, even to a small bet.

Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.111% 40.74% 10.37% 55 14.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 48.889% 38.52% 10.37% 52 14.00 { 77-55, A8s-A2s, K8s, Q8s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo-A7o, KJo, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Let's eliminate the gutshots...

Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.541% 27.93% 12.61% 31 14.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 59.459% 46.85% 12.61% 52 14.00 { 77-55, A8s-A2s, K8s, Q8s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo-A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, T9o }

This is pretty much a made hand that he could have had based on the cards on the board, with the exception being T9o, as I think he could easily play the oesd this way. But notably a lot of our equity comes from this oesd, and:

Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.526% 15.79% 14.74% 15 14.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 69.474% 54.74% 14.74% 52 14.00 { 77-55, A8s-A2s, K8s, Q8s, J8s+, T8s, 98s, ATo-A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }

If this is a -EV move, I don't think it is too terribly -EV.
Depending on how many aces he continues with, I don't think we're terribly far behind, and depending if he's playing a gutshot on the flop (i sure priced him in for one) and continuing it on the river, we can make this call. I think with the wide unknowns about this hand, the majority of them pointing to more +EV I can make this call for maybe a small profit in the long run. Also, the villain may be more inclined to call in with higher aces pre, as he is late with limpers, so the bottom end of his 11% might just be calling in. But I also doubt he is calling every ace on the flop, so this probably evens out.. Not enough hands to have a good read on what his 29/11 is... though I doubt pokerstove's ranges are more than 70% accurate here.
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mrchevyceleb
Old 05-24-2010, 06:16 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Bet the flop bigger to charge draws for peeling, turn check is ok, but don't fold the river, he has a ton of air in his range when he pots it there, when the 8 rolls off on the river it makes it very unlikely he has an 8 so his range is Jx and missed draws so call. He thinks you're super weak after you check the turn.
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Imthenewfish
Old 05-24-2010, 10:29 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Bet flop bigger and pretty much give up after that
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sven00100
Old 05-24-2010, 11:37 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imthenewfish View Post
Bet flop bigger and pretty much give up after that
Would you agree as played i should c/c the riv though, or do I have range issues again?
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Imthenewfish
Old 05-25-2010, 02:30 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sven00100 View Post
Would you agree as played i should c/c the riv though, or do I have range issues again?
yea c/c river as played
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Fnord
Old 05-31-2010, 09:50 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imthenewfish View Post
yea c/c river as played
Do the math on calling a pot size bet when we expect to chop or lose a lot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Imthenewfish
Old 05-31-2010, 06:30 PM #13 (permalink)  
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I don't usually solve for EV, but here it goes-
We're calling $0.13 to win $0.065 because our hand is pretty much a bluff catcher and I don't see him turning any hand in his range into a bluff at this point, besides maybe a retarded backdoor FD
EV = % won * amount won - % loss * Amount lost
for Breakeven
0 = (% win * 0.065) - (%loss *$0.13)
We must split 2 out of 3 pots for this to be break even.
I don't expect to lose very often here..

edit: Oops, thought pot was 0.13 after bet, logic fail.

0 < (%win * 0.13) - (%loss * $0.13)
It has to work 1 in 2 times because even though we're getting 2 to 1 on our money my range for him is hes never bluffing here
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philly and the phanatics
Old 06-01-2010, 03:48 PM #14 (permalink)  
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philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
 where did you get .065? theres no half pennies and the pot is .13...plus .13....plus .13, so .39

using OP's range and ps calcs you got .39(30.5) - .13(69.5)= 11.895 - 9.032 > 0 so boom ev+
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