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It's Good to Not Make A Mistake When You Run Pokerstove

  
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-25-2009, 11:49 PM     Post subject: It's Good to Not Make A Mistake When You Run Pokerstove #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 30 something V$IP, and is very, very passive. Given this info, his range here is the nuts.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($5.07)
UTG ($9.28)
UTG+1 ($5.10)
MP1 ($3.70)
MP2 ($3.80)
MP3 ($7.49)
CO ($4.40)
Button ($1.19)
SB ($5.02)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, Q
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 calls $0.05, MP3 calls $0.05, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.22) 10, 9, 7 (4 players)
Hero bets $0.15, MP1 raises to $3.65 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50

lol, I accidently put J9 into his range so I thought I was ahead instead of J8. My bad .

Lesson: Don't f-up your ranges you put in pokerstove when you're doing it for a call your wondering about.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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Ragnar4
Old 02-26-2009, 12:10 AM #2 (permalink)  
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hooray high variance.


I have a very hard time believing that Villan has J8 only. TTT and 999 and 777 are all par for this line with someone with a vpip of 30 and is extremely passive.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-26-2009, 12:17 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
hooray high variance.


I have a very hard time believing that Villan has J8 only. TTT and 999 and 777 are all par for this line with someone with a vpip of 30 and is extremely passive.
ehhh that's true..I was like 100% positive though he's only shoving a straight. I saw him c/c top/top on 3 streets.

high variance shouldn't be a worry though. And if we stack him and he get's all pissed and rebuys thats some serious EV. So what's basically a coinflip can have some potential effect on how profitable to game will be. Plus I look like a gambler making this call, so all the more action for me.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-26-2009, 12:26 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 FWIW we're 57% against J9, and we're about 50ish if we add in the sets.
However, I think we can weight the range more heavily on J9 so that our equity is higher than what it would be if we were to assign an equal weight to each hand in the range. Add the in the other factors I talked about in the previous thread and I make a call here.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Ragnar4
Old 02-26-2009, 12:27 AM #5 (permalink)  
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wait, you're back down to 5nl? What happened? Your shot miss?
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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borges
Old 02-26-2009, 12:28 AM #6 (permalink)  

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Am I missing something? If he has for example Jc8h, then his equity in the pot is 57.12 percent? You only have about 11 outs if he has the nut straight?
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DemonDaze
Old 02-26-2009, 12:28 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,910 games 0.005 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 9c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.980% 42.63% 00.35% 3798 31.50 { Qc8c }
Hand 1: 57.020% 56.67% 00.35% 5049 31.50 { J8o }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

17,820 games 0.005 secs 3,564,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 9c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.857% 41.45% 00.40% 7387 72.00 { Qc8c }
Hand 1: 58.143% 57.74% 00.40% 10289 72.00 { TT-99, 77, J8o }

And your pot odds were?
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-26-2009, 12:33 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Sorry I acc. triple clicked post...
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-26-2009, 12:33 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 Hold on a sec..
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-26-2009, 12:34 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 Woah wtf...when I plugged into Pstove the first time it came out 50/50...?!?! I swear

My pokerstove made a mistake? I know I didn't because i triple checked before I posted.

Fuck..you know what i did...I acc. typed in J9

so when I acc. typed in the wrong range when I opened up P-stove while I was at the table it caused me to make a bad call..
Lesson: Get the f'in cards right.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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DemonDaze
Old 02-26-2009, 12:36 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,910 games 0.005 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 9c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.441% 57.44% 00.00% 5118 0.00 { Qc8c }
Hand 1: 42.559% 42.56% 00.00% 3792 0.00 { J9o }

I think this may have been your mistake (you made it in earlier post as well).
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Ragnar4
Old 02-26-2009, 12:38 AM #12 (permalink)  
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a call is still like ridicously close here though.. right?
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-26-2009, 12:39 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 Yup, I copied my mistake. Oh well, I've been up for about 13 hours now, wrote an exam this morning, and studied/played poker all day.
I think I need to take a break.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-26-2009, 12:41 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
a call is still like ridicously close here though.. right?
In a raised pot maybe, but there's only like 7 or 8 bb's in the pot and he's shoving.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Ragnar4
Old 02-26-2009, 12:51 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Hero has to call 3.50 to win 4.02. call 7 to win 8
Hero's odds here are 40/60 Call 4 to win 6

Common demominator? 24, 8x3 = 24

Therefore
21 to win 24 (Money)
odds are
16 to win 24 (Odds)

your spending more than you have the odds of winning so yeah.. it's a fold.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-26-2009, 01:02 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 This thread just tilts me.

Ragnar I think your math is a bit off but I'm not going to bother trying to correct it right now because I'm probably wrong about that since I'm crosseyed or something today.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Sir Pawnalot
Old 02-26-2009, 01:06 AM #17 (permalink)  
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The Equity difference between him having a set and a flopped straight is minimal. If we put him on a nut range our equity is around 40%. Without doing the calculations this is an easy fold assuming our E estimate is correct.

Pot: 4.02 USD
Call: 3.5 USD

Win: 4.02*0.4= 1.608 USD
Lose: 3.5*0.6= 2.1 USD
Profit per decision: -0.49 USD

This decision cost you around 10 bb assuming your range is correct.

But in the heat of the moment no one will blame you for making the call. I would have called because I do not have HUD and can not assign such a narrow range.

Interesting spot which highlights the importance of marginal decisions.
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lolzzz_321
Old 02-26-2009, 10:34 AM #18 (permalink)  
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pot_odds
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Sir Pawnalot
Old 02-26-2009, 12:00 PM #19 (permalink)  
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"The ratio has two numbers: the Size of the Pot, and the Cost of the Call. To get the percentage value, we add the Size of the Pot and the Cost of the Call numbers together and record their Sum. We then divide the Cost of the Call by the Sum."

Well pot odds is just a simple deduction of knowledge which is ready available. Estimating E is where skill comes in.

In this example our pot odds (ratio) converted to numbers is:

3.5 / (4.02+3.5)
= 0.465

In other words, we need around 46.5% E to break even

Because all the information needed to calculate pot odds is ready available, my focus is more on estimating E and FE which is not easily deducted from the information we have. Calculating pot odds is only the first step in increasing our edge versus opponents.

EDIT: I forgot to include the SB
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Jason
Old 02-26-2009, 06:13 PM #20 (permalink)  
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 Not that anyone asked, but just to be thorough :

The pot is $4.02 and hero is facing a bet of $3.50. The pot odds in terms of probability are 46.54% ($3.50/($4.02+$3.50)) meaning you'd have to win almost half the time for calling to be profitable. Think of it this way. Say there was no pot and someone shoved a dollar in the pot. You'd need exactly 50% odds to break even. So, if someone makes a huge over bet of a small pot, the pot odds are going to be very close to 50%. Pot odds in terms of probability can never be higher than 50% and only 50% if it's a dry pot. That is why you always hear odds described as a number higher than 1 to 1 like 2 to 1 or 3 to 1. You can never get 1 to 2 on your money.

As for how I got the $4.02 and $3.50 figures. The final pre-flop pot was $0.22 and villain's stack @ the moment was $3.65 (his initial stack minus the blind). Hero bets $0.15 to make the pot $0.37. Villain re-raises the rest of his stack all-in, which is $3.65, making the pot $3.65 + $0.37 = $4.02. Since hero led out for $0.15, he only has to call $3.50 ($3.65 minus $0.15) to continue. As for the actual odds, he's getting $4.02 to $3.50 which comes out to about 1.15 to 1.

It can sometimes get confusing because I like to think in terms of probability, but often people refer to odds. I think people refer to odds more because it's easier to say, but more difficult to convert to probability percentage unless you have a few memorized. Odds is a ratio. Probability is a percentage. 2 to 1 odds means out of 3 outcomes (2 plus 1), you will win once. Converting that same odds to probability percent breaks down to 1/3 or 33.33%. It can be more confusing than most people think, which is why I think more than 90% of the people who mention pot odds @ home games really have no idea what they're saying much less any idea how to properly apply it
- Jason
 
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Sir Pawnalot
Old 02-26-2009, 06:49 PM #21 (permalink)  
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I agree Jason.

People who talk about pot odds usually do not know what they talk about. I played this guy who called three pot sized bets with two overs and said he pot odds to call...

My calculation was really rough- and I typed it out at 4.am. I will edit my calculation.
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