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An Interesting Observation
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DeanCarl
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03-29-2005, 06:43 PM
Post subject: An Interesting Observation
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Alpine, CA
Posts: 80
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Well, at least *I* think it is. 
Lot's of folks ask about what percentage of flops they should be seeing over a given amount of time. Seems to me that can get a little scewed, even over the "long haul". A long run of cold cards or an extended "rush" can come along.
I like to look at the comparison between the % of flops seen and the % of those hands I won. Over time, if I'm winning about 50 percent of the flops I see I'm on the up side. I get down around 30 percent and I'm loosing money. (in between those numbers I'm about even). Those percentages are what tell me if I'm playing the right cards at the right times.
Any thoughts?
Dean
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hagakure
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 215
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I tend to agree. I think that's why a lot of people around here won't even think about truly analyzing hand histories enough to accurately label their style of play until you can analyze more than 15k hands. At that rate, there have been enough hands dealt to compensate for a decent amount of variance for the most part.
In my opinion there shouldnt be a doubt whether or not you are playing the "right" cards except for a few areas where people seem to have differing opinions like Axs or Kxs. Once you know for sure that you are doing what you should be doing with the cards that you get you can move on to doing things the way you are talking about. Of course, that goes strictly for playing the cards. The dynamics of when to raise, re-raise, cold call or whatever comes in after you know which cards to actually hold on to.
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aokrongly
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 863
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I think the simple act of analyzing your play and results improves your game over time. The % of poker players who do any analysis at all is very small. The % of those that do the right kind of analysis and use it to improve their play or miniscule.
One person may play a style that's entire different than what you'll find in any book, but if they understand their style, analyze their play continually and maximize their winnings while minimize their loses, then they'll be successful.
On the other hand, someone else can refer to a dictionary of defined play for every situation and lose their ass over the long-term without having a clue why.
The difference is one player knows why they're doing what they're doing and executes consistently and the other has no clue.
Analysis turbo-charges your learning curve, without question.
Anyone who isn't analyzing their play is just "playing a game" no different than playing Monopoly or Yatzee, while those that do are "poker players" who will see continued improvement and long term success.
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