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interesting low pocket pair implied odds....

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bearcats05

12-25-2005, 08:56 PM Post subject: interesting low pocket pair implied odds....

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2005

Posts: 336

This hand got me thinking about how much you could call for if you have a pocket pair that didnt hit a set to try to hit a set on the turn because you have good implied odds....

Game started at: 17:52:00 12/23/05
Game ID: 30753573 1/2 Trump - 3 (Hold'em)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: koigan23 (15).
Seat 2: Kurt (27.73).
Seat 3: mikell17 (25.40).
Seat 4: juggling (43.47).
Seat 5: supertv (129.80).
Seat 6: mtmayer (20.80).
Seat 7: pkrvoyeur (204.20).
Seat 8: chiky (27.50).
Seat 9: bearcats54 (194.50).
Seat 10: bigshow69 (87).
Player bearcats54 has small blind (0.50)
Player bigshow69 has big blind (1)
Player koigan23 wait BB
Player bearcats54 received card: [5s]
Player bearcats54 received card: [5c]
Player Kurt folds
Player mikell17 calls (1)
Player juggling folds
Player supertv raises (2)
Player mtmayer folds
Player pkrvoyeur folds
Player chiky folds
Player bearcats54 calls (1.50)
Player bigshow69 calls (1)
Player mikell17 calls (1)
*** FLOP ***: [7s 10s Ah]
Player bearcats54 checks
Player bigshow69 checks
Player mikell17 bets (2.80)
Player supertv calls (2.80)
Player bearcats54 calls (2.80)
Player bigshow69 calls (2.80)
*** TURN ***: [7s 10s Ah][5d]
Player bearcats54 checks
Player bigshow69 checks
Player mikell17 bets (10)
Player supertv calls (10)
Player bearcats54 raises (25)
Player bigshow69 calls (25)
Player mikell17 allin (10.60)
Player supertv calls (15)
*** RIVER ***: [7s 10s Ah 5d][Kc]
Player bearcats54 bets (30)
Player bigshow69 folds
Player supertv calls (30)
Player mikell17 mucks cards
Player supertv mucks cards
------ Summary ------
Pot: 171.80. Rake: 3
Board: [7s 10s Ah 5d Kc]
Player koigan23 does not show cards. Bets: 0. Collects: 0 Wins: 0
Player Kurt does not show cards. Bets: 0. Collects: 0 Wins: 0
Player mikell17 does not show cards. Bets: 25.40. Collects: 0 Loses: 25.40
Player juggling does not show cards. Bets: 0. Collects: 0 Wins: 0
Player supertv does not show cards. Bets: 59.80. Collects: 0 Loses: 59.80
Player mtmayer does not show cards. Bets: 0. Collects: 0 Wins: 0
Player pkrvoyeur does not show cards. Bets: 0. Collects: 0 Wins: 0
Player chiky does not show cards. Bets: 0. Collects: 0 Wins: 0
*Player bearcats54 shows: Three Of Kind of 5s [5s 5c]. Bets: 59.80. Collects:
171.80 Wins: 112
Player bigshow69 does not show cards. Bets: 29.80. Collects: 0 Loses: 29.80
Game ended at: 17:55:01 12/23/05
---------------------
---------------------

now this got me thinking if this is +EV to stay in and try to hit...
like how much can you call there?

im glad this hit... but im not sure if this is a +EV move

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Miffed22001

12-25-2005, 11:08 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

I dont know how big the pot got or the odds. But if you have odds to draw to the trips then do. Ive had fish min bet to me when i know they have top two pair and ive called and turned the set and just open pushed, pwing in the process. Im not sure implied odds can make the decision to call, i think you just got lucky. But if teh odds are there, why not make the call?

bearcats05

12-25-2005, 11:53 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2005

Posts: 336

thats what im saying... is this +EV? 2.80 to win over 100.... im not sure what the odds of hitting another 5 are though

p-i

12-25-2005, 11:54 PM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Dec 2005

Posts: 16

2 outer so the implied pot would have to be >$63 to call $2.80.

2/47 = 0.0425531915 (4.3% chance to make an out)
((1/0.0425531915)*2.80)-2.80) = 63

So as long as the pot's about 22.5 times as big as the flop bet by the river, calling seems to be a good play. Although...had a third spade come on the river you might have lost. So perhaps the number needs to be larger to account for the times you make your set and lose. Maybe guesstimated pot size of >25x the flop bet would be better.

What do you put supertv on, AsKs/AsXs?

Disclaimer: I'm a newb that knows very little but I think I got the math right.

bearcats05

12-26-2005, 12:05 AM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2005

Posts: 336

yeah it seems to be +EV....

supertv said he had A10....

its not so much this hand but just calling a flop bet in general with a pocket pair to hit a set on the turn.... and what kind of situations you would need in general to call

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interesting low pocket pair implied odds....

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