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Implied odds here?

  
 
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drtofu66
Old 07-05-2006, 01:56 PM     Post subject: Implied odds here? #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 595
drtofu66
Please help me think through this hand.

Assume even ~100BB stacks all around. 25NL full ring. No reads.

We get AdQh in CO.

MP3 limps, I raise to $1.25, BB calls, MP3 calls.

3 players, pot ~$3.90
Flop JcTc5s

BB bets $1, MP3 calls, I call [I considered folding with the 2 suited flop and 2 others interested and only ~6:1 pot odds but such a small bet in a growing pot with 3 only outs to the nuts. If I I call and turn a non-club A or Q I'll reassess, possibly call if the action stays weak. OK to call that and see the turn?

Turn 6h. Pot ~$6.90

BB bets $2, MP3 calls. Do you call here? ~6:1 pot odds, 3 non-club Kings are my only clean outs. Wimpy action so I may not get paid off even if I hit. If the Kc hits-- call up to 1/2 pot, but fold to any bet/raise action?

Alternately, if the turn is Kh with the same turn action-- what do you do? We stayed in without proper pot odds, hit the nuts but can still be outdrawn (because everyone freaking stays in with 6 high flush draws at this site/level). We have to raise but to how much? Pot is $10.90, $2 to call, ~$13 total pot if I just call so make it $13 to go (raise $11)? How would you size the bet when the lead bet is so small?
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Pelion
Old 07-05-2006, 02:05 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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Pelion
I usually call this flop but fold if I miss on the turn.

If you hit on the turn you have 2 streets to raise and extract value aswell as charging flush chasers if noone has a made hand.

If you hit on the river the flush draws cant pay you off anymore and weaker made hands will only have to pay 1 streets worth of raise so implied odds here are MUCH smaller.


If I hit on the turn Ill Raise to about $10. Pot is $10.90, $2 to call, ~$13 total pot if I make it $10 he will have to call $8 more into a $20.90 pot. Thats big enough to not worry too much about laying down if the flush card comes.

Given the action I think a set is extremely unlikely so we dont have to worry about the board pairing too much. Obviously if we get reraised we can re-evaluate (and make another raise or push).
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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thnwkd
Old 07-05-2006, 06:15 PM     Post subject: Re: Implied odds here? #3 (permalink)  
Flush

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Bahamas
Posts: 436
thnwkd
Quote:
Originally Posted by drtofu66
We stayed in without proper pot odds, hit the nuts but can still be outdrawn
This seems as good a reason to fold as any... save yourself the headache on a marginal hand, there will be other hands.
Also i noticed you used the word "wimpy", forgive me if i read too much into this, but you should try to play without emotion or ego.
Success is how high you bounce after hitting bottom.


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MrSmiley23
Old 07-06-2006, 12:20 PM #4 (permalink)  

Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 72
MrSmiley23
IMO you cant be using implied odds for tptk/2nd tk + flop bet was so weak that im pretty sure even if the K hit for your str8 you're probably not going to get paid off unless someone flopped a set/top 2 pair
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