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JoschMH

10-31-2007, 10:39 PM Post subject: Implied Odds, Dan Harrington and Help!

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: May 2007

Posts: 17

Hey, I hope this in the right place. There are so many topics…

So in Harrington On Hold ‘Em vol one, he says on implied odds: ‘To be more precise in your calculation multiply the size of your intended bet by the probability he will call it.’

So say I made my draw on the end, I’ll bet maybe $500, if I think he’ll call it but then what number am I supposed to multiply it by? No where does it state that…

It’s probably best that anyone with a copy of the book reads the whole passage on page 124 to better understand my question.

Also while I’m here, I was wondering if anyone would mind adding me on MSN or Yahoo! or something… JoschMH@hotmail(dot)com or JoschMH.

Since I’m still quite new to the game I don’t always know if I’ve made a mistake or not. I know sometimes you have to lose the hand and sometimes even if you do everything right, you’re destined to lose. But it’s so easy to say ‘I shouldn’t have done that’ in hindsight.

Basically I’d like a couple of friends that would have the time and patience to help me out when I need it… otherwise I’ll have to keep coming back here! It’s cool but not practical. :P

Thank you, people! X

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Shifubowa

10-31-2007, 11:56 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Sep 2007

Posts: 193

Shifubowa is an unknown quantity at this point

In the example hand you have a flush draw and pot is $1500 and it will cost $500 to call. Your expressed odds are 3 to 1 and you are about 4 to 1 to hit the flush so on the face of it a call has negative expectation based on expressed odds. However if you hit your flush draw you could win another bet on the river. If you bet $500 when you hit your flush the implied odds are 4 to 1 if he calls your river bet 100% of the time.
What the book is explaining is that your implied odds in this case are not 4 to 1 as an opponent will not always call your $500 on the river. This is why you must multiply by the probability of the call for example;

If flush card hits and I bet $500 I think my opponent will call 75% of the time. $500 x 75% (probability of call) = $375. Implied odds are $1500 + $375/$500 (value of turn call) = 3.75 to 1.

If flush card hits and I bet $1000 I think my opponent will call 60% of the time. $1000 x 60% = $600. Implied odds are $1500 + $600/$500 = 4.2 to 1.

If flush card hits and I bet $2000 I think opponent will call 40% of the time. Implied odds are $2000 x 40% = $800. Implied odds are $1500 + $800/$500 =4.6 to 1

Therefore in these examples if your flush card hits a $2000 river bet is better than a $500 bet as it has higher implied odds even though your opponent is more likely to fold.

curtom

11-21-2007, 11:23 PM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 28

Couldn't have said it better Shif. Also, it depends on how large your opponents stack is. You need to make a bet that he will call as Harrington expresses. You can measure that based on his stack size. Usually up to 30% of his stack should suffice in terms of a value bet. If he's aggressive then go for more.

Curtom

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