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Implied Odds Calculation

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spin_md

04-25-2005, 03:43 AM Post subject: Implied Odds Calculation

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Wait for my postcard

Posts: 54

Background:
I don't normally play an Ax flush draw from early position, but the other players at the table were playing a lot of flops with limping or minraising pre-flop. So, I figured I could see a cheap flop with multiway action.

I didn't have pot odds for the flop call, but, with the way listriton and jojoiswired played post flop, I felt they would continue betting hard, even if the flush hit. So, I was reasonably confident that I had implied odds to make the call.

Now that I have had some time to analyze my hands for the week, I have been thinking about what is the minimum the two other players would have needed to bet if the flush hit, in order for me to have the implied odds to make the call.

Is there a simple calculation for this?

Thanks

***** Hand History for Game 1922189962 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Wednesday, April 20, 02:09:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 36953 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: sky_h22 ( $44.09 )
Seat 2: spin_md ( $43.65 )
Seat 3: listriton ( $105.1 )
Seat 4: jojoiswired ( $62.8 )
Seat 6: Filth4uranus ( $31.5 )
Seat 5: mila1960 ( $46.25 )
Filth4uranus posts small blind [$0.25].
sky_h22 posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to spin_md [ Ad 4d ]
spin_md calls [$0.5].
listriton raises [$1].
jojoiswired calls [$1].
mila1960 calls [$1].
Filth4uranus folds.
sky_h22 calls [$0.5].
spin_md calls [$0.5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ks, Qd, Td ]
sky_h22 checks.
spin_md checks.
listriton bets [$15].
jojoiswired calls [$15].
mila1960 folds.
sky_h22 folds.
spin_md calls [$15].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
spin_md checks.
listriton bets [$0.5].
jojoiswired raises [$20].
spin_md is all-In.
listriton calls [$27.15].
jojoiswired calls [$7.65].
** Dealing River ** [ Kh ]
listriton bets [$60].
jojoiswired is all-In.
listriton shows [ Tc, Jc ] two pairs, kings and tens.
jojoiswired shows [ 9d, Kd ] a flush, king high.
spin_md shows [ Ad, 4d ] a flush, ace high.
listriton wins $40.85 from side pot #2 with two pairs, kings and tens.
jojoiswired wins $38.3 from side pot #1 with a flush, king high.
spin_md wins $131.2 from the main pot with a flush, ace high with ace kicker.

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04-25-2005, 04:35 AM

#2 (permalink)

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spin_md

04-25-2005, 06:58 PM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Wait for my postcard

Posts: 54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

You played this hand perfectly

Thanks for the compliment!

Why I posted was not that I was concerned with my play, rather what is the "break-even" point for the implied odds calculation (i.e., what is the minimum pot contribution the other players need to make in later streets to give you the implied odds to justify the call). If the two players had become limp noodles when the third diamond hit, and they only bet $0.50 a street or folded to an aggressive bet by me, I wouldn't have had the implied odds. The fact that they put their entire stacks in the middle, I clearly had the implied odds, but where is the break-even point in extra $$ required.

Is it as simple as determining what the pot size would need to be to make the pot odds of the $15 flop call equal to the odds of hitting the flush (in this case an extra $7.61 over the pot size at flop if I have my math correct).

All assistance appreciated.

koolmoe

04-25-2005, 07:05 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

I would probably have check-raised all-in with 12 outs to the nuts and the slim possibility that my A outs are good.

You don't need implied odds to continue here, especially with two opponents.

Bmxicle

04-25-2005, 07:42 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Vancouver

Posts: 947

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

I would probably have check-raised all-in with 12 outs to the nuts and the slim possibility that my A outs are good.

You don't need implied odds to continue here, especially with two opponents.

You definately need implied odds to continue here, if he hits his flush on the turn and both his opponents lose he will lose money in the long run.

For the math though lets see, the pot was at 37 dollars and you needed to put in 15 dollars so you had 2.7 to 1 pot odds and you';ll make your flush 8/47 times on the turn for 5.9 to 1 pot odds.

So then $15 * 5.9 = $88.50, so you should need the pot to get to 88.50, which means you need to get 52 more dollars in the pot, which with two oponents already in the hand calling big bets is pretty likely.

The gutshot straight that you've got doesn't really count because you will almost always be splitting the pot, or occasionally taking it down right away because no one has an ace.

Somebody correct me if i've made any mistakes.

drmcboy

04-25-2005, 08:01 PM

#6 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,602

My gut also said move in on the flop, but I don't know if you could have folded them out anyway. On the other hand, moving in probably takes care of your pot odds if you get called- if you don't, great.

Grand_MasterB

04-25-2005, 08:35 PM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Cincinnati

Posts: 466

yeah the all in on the flop might have been best...

say you call the $15 on the flop and miss... then they bet out big on the turn...what do you do now? your chances are severely reduced for making your flush and even if you do call all your check/calling could definately raise a draw flag even to the weakest player. So if it hits the river you might not get any additional action. So why even put yourself in this situation...just my opinion

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