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I'm done with Pot Odds
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bigslikk
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12-06-2006, 06:40 PM
Post subject: I'm done with Pot Odds
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 445
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Okay- I'm playing micro tourney full of mega-donks. I realize this isn't the best place to learn "real poker" nonetheless a game's a game and they're all allegedly beatable. My goal right now is beating these small-buy tourneys- I play similar live tourney's with some buddies (also donk marathon, tho some skilled) and I want to win these too.
My problem with poker is that I tend to play passively. I wait to 'trap' the loose players with top 2 pair, set, or better or else I'm folding a lot or betting hands like tpgk reather weakly. Anyway I've been working to play "less scared"- more aggressively.
Part of my weak play is that if I have a small edge, like 55-65%, I like to bet modestly but not so insanely that I'm putting my stack up on a complete crapshoot. I dunno. I posted something on FTR that said "if you flopped nut flush draw in tourney, and were given a lil better than 3:1 with EXTREMELY DEEP STACKS- would play for stacks (go allin to call 2 allins)? Everybody told me, unsuprisingly, off course!! Insta-call.
Yes it is +EV ring game, don't really know how that fits into tournaments, but I mean, probablity says your FAVORITE to bust out, and tripling up early doesn't significantly increase your odds to win a huge MTT, so .... I don't get it. Reward seems like crap compared to risk.
Anyway, I just pushed AKo on my first hand of a mega-donk micro MTT b/c i was on BB and everybody limped, thusly, i figured i had the best (if one guy actually limped AA or KK wow gj for these players) also i understand pp is ahead... i was willing to take that risk. I got 2 callers, I hoped for weaker ace or KQ (usually favorite allin-calling hands for these guys) and anticipated a 44 or a 55 to call too.
I got A6o and JTo to call, and yup i busted. Ran the math on cardplayer, as i always do when i bust, and i was 43v38(jack-ten)v 15. Okay, i had 1/2 to win with 3:1 on my money. F'in A, right?
That was my reasoning too- after all, i had heard repeatedly that 'you gotta gamble to win' and to 'get ur money in good' and 'pot odds is king' and all this crap. But I've won these MTT's by nutcamping early (when blinds are insignificant) and only gambling significantly when steals/blinds matter.
Basically, I've tried "getting aggressive" by pushing small edges, and find that I can win a lot more v. calling sations if I push 70 and 80% edges for huge money or else play more modest pots. I'm done with the pot odds bull. If you put urself in a 51-49 for all the money enough times, you're goin out the door, busto. I'd rather I speculate a lil bit than flip a bunch a coins with a 5% edge and hope they all come up heads.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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I play the small tournys' by folding till the antes start. I'll play great hands or limp a PP for sets, but early in some of these micros, against 3 and 4 callers, forget it. Someones going to hit a miracle card. If not the first time, the second time you go all in. Stay out of trouble and wait for some luckbox that doubled up early to double you up pushing a TPGK and a gutshot, in the second hour. thats the time to play poker. I challenge any decent tourney player here to play one or two of these $1 or $2 tourny's at stars or party. These things are another world, i bet most have never heard of HOH or pot odds. They have seen negraneau push K4o on the WPT before though. They know "Poker".
I've done this several times now to turn a $4 roll on Stars to $50+ but no big cashes yet. It is still 3 hours to ITM and thats' still only $1.65 or so.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,602
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Quote:
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I play the small tournys' by folding till the antes start.
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terrible advice. all the fish are giving away their money before the antes start.
sample this thread for starters
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-47451.htm
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tripling up early doesn't significantly increase your odds to win a huge MTT
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Do you have any math to back up this bizzare statement?
I won't spend 8 pages telling you it is wrong, I will just ask you who usually wins more pots in the middle and end of tourneys, big or small stacks?
Your tourney life is greatly overrated. There is some place for $ EV vs chip EV decisions late in tourneys but early, EV is EV.
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If you put urself in a 80-20 for all the money 5 times, you're a favorite to be goin out the door, busto.
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I FYP. You can't win without luck. In huge micro tourneys, you need a lot of luck, since you'll be all in a lot more than 5 times and no where near a 4/1 fav.
Post some hands in the MTT forum so we can help you. You will not win long term with this attitude:
Quote:
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I'm done with the pot odds bull.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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at least we know that poker will always be profitable.
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bigslikk
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 445
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Eh. drmc you do make some reasonable claims. However I still believe that a better strategy in no foldem holdem is to see some flops b4 you commit a shitload. I'd rather not push the hairpin +ev decisions when I know I can outplay them in the long run. Lukie- your posts are very helpful; I recommend you impart your insights to other lucky posters in your ambition of reaching 10,000 posts. Sigh, I wish I could use this board as my social life and pretend that I was muhammad ali.
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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lol at 1:1 odds with 2:1 payout being hairpin +eV
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