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I should start mucking QQ preflop

  
 
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AFchung
Old 04-24-2009, 08:32 PM     Post subject: I should start mucking QQ preflop #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 40/6. His 6 pfr came solely from utg min raises that were small PPs

What's our turn play? I stacked off thinking that villain was overplaying his ten and trying to "protect" his hands from a river ovvercard

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($56.85)
SB ($92.70)
BB ($50)
UTG ($28.55)
MP1 ($41.20)
MP2 ($50.75)
Hero (CO) ($59.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
3 folds, Hero bets $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 5, 6, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button raises to $6.50, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($17.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $44, Hero raises to $51.20 (All-In), Button calls $4.35 (All-In)

River: ($114.45) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $114.45 | Rake: $3
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amir is cool
Old 04-24-2009, 10:04 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I doubt he's on a higher overpair than you, like kings or aces because he would have 3bet preflop.

The only thing you need to really worry about is a set, which he might have hit on the flop because he minraised you like that. It doesn't make sense that someone trying to protect their tptk would minraise.


but i could be horribly wrong who knows
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Airles™
Old 04-24-2009, 10:10 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I wouldn't feel too bad about it. I'd probably stack off too. Villain's play doesn't make any sense, regardless of what he's holding.
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Illfavor
Old 04-24-2009, 10:28 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 He raises 6% of his range, but according to you, that 6% is small PP type hands. That means AA/KK are in his range imo. He has also apparently not 3bet. We assume he 3bets AA/KK, but unless he's just running bad he only raises shit hands in terrible position.

Our analysis would benefit from knowing if he's passive postflop. He plays half his hands, so T5s/T6s/65s/T2s are all possible here, along with TT/66/55 and shit. I'd probably call b/c I'd be like "wat?" but I think calling massive overbets is generally not good w/o a very strong hand.
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Old 04-25-2009, 01:53 AM #5 (permalink)  
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your SPR is 12
he's a fish
he overbet shoves
does he really have a ten?
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Airles™
Old 04-25-2009, 02:40 AM #6 (permalink)  
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That turned deuce means squadoosh and that over-bet isn't exactly a "please call" line... but then again he is a fish. He's obviously excited about something to take such a fuck-tarded line.
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daven
Old 04-25-2009, 04:36 AM     Post subject: Re: I should start mucking QQ preflop #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
Turn: ($17.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks,
explanation please
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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AFchung
Old 04-25-2009, 08:35 AM     Post subject: Re: I should start mucking QQ preflop #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
Turn: ($17.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks,
explanation please
if i wanted to get it in i'd do so on the flop
http://afchung.blogspot.com/
 
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Old 04-25-2009, 09:55 AM     Post subject: Re: I should start mucking QQ preflop #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
Turn: ($17.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks,
explanation please
if i wanted to get it in i'd do so on the flop
if you didn't want to get it in, why did you get it in
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AFchung
Old 04-25-2009, 11:01 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
your SPR is 12
he's a fish -- orly
he overbet shoves -- orly
does he really have a ten?
yes. ok.

what's your line then? are you folding an overpair here? stating the obvious then following it up with an ambiguous/ and or sarcastic/ and or rhetorical statement is not really helping much in the discussion of this hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
if you didn't want to get it in, why did you get it in
his weird turn bet sizing seemed to lean more towards the "go away" type of bet rather than "please call me". as said in my original post, i thought he was overprotecting top pair
http://afchung.blogspot.com/
 
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daven
Old 04-25-2009, 12:23 PM     Post subject: Re: I should start mucking QQ preflop #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
Turn: ($17.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks,
explanation please
if i wanted to get it in i'd do so on the flop
i don't understand your explanation.
I'm asking why you are not betting the turn
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Old 04-26-2009, 02:51 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
your SPR is 12
he's a fish -- orly
he overbet shoves -- orly
does he really have a ten?
yes. ok.

what's your line then? are you folding an overpair here? stating the obvious then following it up with an ambiguous/ and or sarcastic/ and or rhetorical statement is not really helping much in the discussion of this hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
if you didn't want to get it in, why did you get it in
his weird turn bet sizing seemed to lean more towards the "go away" type of bet rather than "please call me". as said in my original post, i thought he was overprotecting top pair
he could easily be "overprotecting" a set from a straight draw
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surviva316
Old 04-26-2009, 04:03 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 yeah i'm definitely betting the turn. a fish is calling with TPGK all day long, but they're rarely betting it. doesn't change the fact that you're getting stacked if he does have a better hand here but it's far more acceptable path to being stacked
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Robb
Old 04-26-2009, 05:08 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 I think I probably stack off to a set here. Here's the point for me on hands like this: even retards make a big hand every now and then, and their demented style of play (while overall being very profitable for HERO) is an extremely effective disguise when they do hit a monster.

By the time we know for certain he has a big hand, all the chips are basically in the middle.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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Old 04-26-2009, 10:13 PM #15 (permalink)  
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I don't understand the logic. I see him c/c AT for three streets here every time
I mean, it's not like you have any READS other than minraises with pps

hell, if he was 40/6/3.5 I would re-consider my evaluation of the hand
but we simply don't have enough information to ASSUME he's going to be doing this with anything less than a huge hand

I'm just going to assume he's passive and fold
there is NOTHING that the original post mentions that has me believe that he's not passive
why would we be paying off a passive player when he decides to bet?
Are we REALLY getting bluffed here? Is he REALLY valuebetting worse?

I really disagree with Robb. When a guy calls all day and then suddenly he starts raising and shoving, is he REALLY disguising his monsters? I watch my opponents and I've made calls like this with a ten, but ONLY when I have a read that allows me to do that.
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Robb
Old 04-26-2009, 11:13 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
When a guy calls all day and then suddenly he starts raising and shoving, is he REALLY disguising his monsters? I watch my opponents and I've made calls like this with a ten, but ONLY when I have a read that allows me to do that.
So you assume passive when you don't have a read?
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sil693
Old 04-26-2009, 11:27 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
When a guy calls all day and then suddenly he starts raising and shoving, is he REALLY disguising his monsters? I watch my opponents and I've made calls like this with a ten, but ONLY when I have a read that allows me to do that.
So you assume passive when you don't have a read?
OP never mentions a sample size, but 40/6 doesn't scream "aggressive" to me.

I agree it's an extremely limited "read" (for lack of a better word), but unless OP is keeping anything from us then it seems its all we've got to go on.
 
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AFchung
Old 04-27-2009, 05:48 AM #18 (permalink)  
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the sample size is pretty hefty. you dont need a big sample size to see the difference between vpip and pfr

iopq, where are you folding then? i dont think we can fold to a flop min raise, so my guess would be bet/fold turn?
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bjsaust
Old 04-27-2009, 06:00 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Just to beat a dead horse, but postflop reads are infinitely more valuable here than preflop stats.
Just playing to improve.
 
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WillburForce
Old 04-27-2009, 07:59 AM #20 (permalink)  
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 *if* you're folding it's a B/F on turn.

I'd find it very hard to fold here because we know fish can do this crap with q-10, k-10 etc.

meh, pay him off, most of the time you win. when you lose you see what he has and you now have a good note on how villain plays post flop. re-load get your stack back.
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Robb
Old 04-27-2009, 12:16 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by iopq
hell, if he was 40/6/3.5 I would re-consider my evaluation of the hand
For someone playing nearly half his hands, 1.5 AF is aggressive.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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Sir Pawnalot
Old 04-27-2009, 12:48 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Very interesting hand.

My initial thoughts are these:

1. Your hand probably looks like whiffed overcards to villain. With a 3-bet on flop we stop villain from bluffing or get more value from a T.

2. You decided to flat his minraise. Now he has more bluff cards in his pocket.

3. You decided to check the turn. This line is perfect for inducing a bluff. Check-folding is incredible weak, but on the other hand we couldnt anticipate a huge overbet.

4. His overbet makes very little sense if he hit his set. Your hand does not look strong, but villain may not be rational.

5. If you decide to bet the turn, we can expect very few bluff attempts. A reraise probably beats us and folding is then a good option.

6. How often is huge bets on turn a bluff (on 50NL)? Not very often.

7. I like four lines here.

1: Bet/reraise/shove
2: Bet/call, check/raise
3. Bet/call, bet/call
4. Bet/reraise, bet/fold

Anyways, I would like to have some timing tells and nailed some tendencies before calling this huge overbet. Remember- we only got 1 pair.
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A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
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