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I say tracking software is no good!

  
 
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phil8493
Old 05-02-2010, 07:06 AM     Post subject: I say tracking software is no good! #1 (permalink)  
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 Here's why...

I got Poker Tracker 3 (PT3) and played a ton of hands-- well for me a ton of hands is about 15,000. This took a long time! I'm certain it would be much more valuable if I played 1 million hands.

Here's the problem....

I can conclude almost nothing from from my PT3 stats. It says I'm losing about 1 big blind/100 hands over 15,000 games; however, this tells me little about my win rate other than I'm probably not a big winner or a big loser -- BUT there's a small chance I'm a big winner or a bigger loser!

So fine.... That's what I've learned, but I could have learned that by simply counting my hands and checking my balance/deposit on Full Tilt and doing a little math.

HOWEVER, I have all these statistics about how profitable my game is when in the big blind facing a raise. If 10,000 hands overall doesn't tell me how profitable I am overall -- clearly I can learn nothing about the few hands I played in the big blind facing a raise.

I'm hoping some new software I'm trying can help. It's called LOLCOCKSUCKERPOKER, but I'm not sure how good it is. So far it looks awesome. It'll tell you if you play a single hand right or not and quantify it (irrespective of the outcome); however, I'm not good enough to know if it's correct or not. So I'm posting some questions on this forum to see what others think.

Unfortunately, the holy grail of poker does not provide a proper Heads Up Display -- so switching completely (from PT3 or HM) is out of the question.

{Edit: Corrected site name, quit spamming man. - spoonitnow}

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Kijjo
Old 05-02-2010, 07:43 AM #2 (permalink)  
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"It says I'm losing about 1 big blind/100 hands over 15,000 games; however, this tells me little about my win rate..."

ummm... phil? that IS your win rate.
it won't be your winrate forever, but for now, it is. you want the software to tell you what your winrate is on hands that you haven't played yet or on hands that you played before you got the software?
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phil8493
Old 05-02-2010, 08:23 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kijjo View Post
"It says I'm losing about 1 big blind/100 hands over 15,000 games; however, this tells me little about my win rate..."

ummm... phil? that IS your win rate.
it won't be your winrate forever, but for now, it is. you want the software to tell you what your winrate is on hands that you haven't played yet or on hands that you played before you got the software?

Yes. Clearly you are right. If I play 1 hand of poker and I win $1 then, my win rate is $100/100 hands. However, the interesting question is not -- what's my win rate -- but what do I know about my true win rate. In this example, nothing. After a million hands -- a know it damn well. I apologize, because my grammar wasn't precise. I meant that I don't know a lot after 10,000 hands about my "true win rate" or perhaps more precise my "expected win rate in the future".

After 10,000 hands I know it's between like -6 bb/hour and +5bb/hour a majority of the time. Great! What have I learned? IMO, nothing. Except I can say what my historical win rate is X -- but it is largely meaningless until it is a representative sample.

So, yes I want software that tells me based on what I've seen so far -- you are this good.

I know that's a tall order, but my hypothesis is that LOLCOCKSUCKER is just that. It tells me on a single hand that I sucked. And, I post it here and you guys seem to agree. Now, I'm learning something! Though it's a bit humbling.

We'll see -- I still need to assess it further. I'm not sure how bad I suck just yet

{Edit: Corrected site name. Quit spamming or someone's going to ban your ass. -spoonitnow}
eugmac
Old 05-02-2010, 09:36 AM #4 (permalink)  
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eugmac will become famous soon enougheugmac will become famous soon enough
 Yes your "true winrate" can vary by a bit from your actual winrate after 10,000 hands, but not by THAT much. Knowing your winrate, your standard deviation, and your sample size allows you to calculate what's called a "confidence interval" which gives you a low value and a high value, and that your actual winrate will be say 95% certain (you can change this variable to 99% certainty or whatever) to lie between these two values.

Anyway good luck with your coaching software if you think that's the way forward. FWIW I think it's much better to come into IRC and have one of the regs sweat you and give you advice, but if you think a bot is better at poker than us lot here then by all means try it your way. The major disadvantage I can see with your software is that it won't explain why you played a hand right or wrong, why you should choose this bet size, why you should check behind on this flop... Understanding the fundamental concepts behind the process is key to mastering anything in life and I doubt this bot is going to teach you that.
spoonitnow
Old 05-02-2010, 10:11 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Kind of funny but I saw the same spam shit posted earlier today or yesterday. Knock it off.
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I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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