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angrystoc
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09-15-2009, 03:12 AM
Post subject: I might have found a leak...
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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So, I knew that I'd been calling big bets that I shouldn't be. Especially when villain goes all in on a (seemingly) dry board, but holy shit. I had no idea. Also, I'm not convinced that's the only mistake I'm making. Any ideas come to mind when you see something like this?
edit: This is probably useful too.
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Stacks
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09-15-2009, 03:22 AM
Post subject: Re: I might have found a leak...
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#2 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,588
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by angrystoc
Also, I'm not convinced that's the only mistake I'm making.
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I always lul at statements like this.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
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WTH@$&^#%&#$% @ THE RED LINE!?!%#@^?
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
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http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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angrystoc
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09-15-2009, 03:47 AM
Post subject: Re: I might have found a leak...
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#4 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Quote:
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Originally Posted by angrystoc
Also, I'm not convinced that's the only mistake I'm making.
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I always lul at statements like this. |
Let me re-phrase then:
I know I'm doing a bunch of other stupid shit to make a graph like this, but can't really come up with exactly what type of things to work on. I realize it's just a graph, but I'm hoping for general ideas/input.
Obviously, I'm far from good and probably below avg. That's why I posted this here and asked for help, but I'm still winning (slowly) and grinding towards 10nl. You can see around 7k where I really started to try and clamp down on terrible calls, but I'm still barely breaking even at showdown.
I think another part of the problem is that I'm betting my good hands too aggressively, and pushing people out. Sometimes intentionally if I'm trying to give bad odds to a draw, and sometimes I'm just failing at getting value.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,814
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You may wanna stop betting and raising a bunch of calling stations. Do you know that your red and blue line should be the other way around? Try checking and folding once in a while, they aren't folding anyway.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,588
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Well there isn't much we can draw from a graph, as everything in poker is situational, and your sample size is very small. The obvious is that you are winning loads of non-showdown pots, while losing at showdowns, which seems to suggest you are betting/raising very often. I suppose you could be building pots with inferior ranges and therefore when you do get to showdown you lose more often than you win. While on the flip side you prob don't see loads of showdowns because due to the amount of aggression you are applies leads to folds from the villains.
But honestly, I've never had a graph where I've had a positive red line, and a negative blue line. As the 'standard' seems to be the opposite, but I do know of a few very solid players who seem to generally have their red line exceed their blue, which I don't quite understand.
The real suggestion I can give that might help is to keep in mind that at microstakes the overwhelming majority of players will have a common leak in that they don't like to fold. And it's because of this leak your ranges should be adjusted to exploit this leak, by betting often for value, and bluffing with a lowered frequency. As another observation, the majority of villains aren't good at getting value in microstakes, and it's because of this their ranges are generally pretty polarized towards very strong hands or bluffs. Which leads to the fact that they don't bet as often as they call, meaning that when we have a hand where it might be close between betting for value or check/calling, we should probably lean towards bet/folding as their range is likely wider when facing a bet, then when making a bet.
But tbh, not sure if that's what your looking for, or if it will help you at all.
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How about you try the winning strategy of "having the best hand"
it works at 10NL
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angrystoc
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
How about you try the winning strategy of "having the best hand"
it works at 10NL
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I've had the best hand plenty of times. The red-line isn't just me shoving all in with Ace rag for 10,000 hands. Just because I don't check behind with a full boat on the river doesn't mean I never have a good hand (and no, I'm not shoving when I don't think there's at least a chance of them calling either).
Anyways, thanks. Your post count is +1 now.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by angrystoc
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
How about you try the winning strategy of "having the best hand"
it works at 10NL
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I've had the best hand plenty of times. The red-line isn't just me shoving all in with Ace rag for 10,000 hands. Just because I don't check behind with a full boat on the river doesn't mean I never have a good hand (and no, I'm not shoving when I don't think there's at least a chance of them calling either).
Anyways, thanks. Your post count is +1 now. |
umm you don't understand
if you sat around waiting for two pair+ all day your red line would be negative
you must be doing some stupid shit like "oh I'll bet top pair no kicker all three streets... aw shucks he shoved river and I have to call due to pot odds"
your AF is 3.5 which means you just keep betting and betting without check/calling to catch bluffs or checking turn back to call river
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,213
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My AF is 4.2 and my red line is slightly negative with the blue being way positive. If your aggression is in decent spots, I think it's fine for that to be high at 10NL - 50NL.
Looks like you bluff all the time in terrible spots so even if you're getting enough value (which it doesn't sound like you are), you're still spewing away far too much in trying to make people fold. Or perhaps betting with showdown value where there is no value. IE. turning hands into bluffs without understanding that's what you're doing.
Probably post some of the hands you're unsure about to get a more accurate idea.
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there's also another indicator of going too far with marginal hands: W$SD of 44
and also Aggression frequency of 66%
my aggression frequency is 40%, W$SD is 49%
also fold to 3b is 50% while mine is 60% and this is A KEY stat
fold AJ/KQ/55 to 3bs
also holy shit at that fold BB and fold SB to steal stat
mine are 70/85 and I'm actually probably calling too much from the BB
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angrystoc
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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Thanks, everyone, for all the feedback.
I actually didn't know that the red and blue were typically reversed. I realized they shouldn't be so polarized, but didn't really realize just how abnormal of a graph it was.
I'll look for some hands that I think are somewhere in the middle between standard and terrible or that I'm unsure about, and hopefully I'll get as much useful input with those. Thanks again everyone.
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angrystoc
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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Would someone be willing to post a more typical graph?
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,814
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angrystoc
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 35
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Thanks, Jyms.
It's makes sense to me that the blue line should be above the red, but it's really counter intuitive to me that villains are staying in the hand until show down.
I'm not at home, so I can't pull a hand history, but here's a common scenario for me.
I'll be on the button with AJs (say, clubs). EP limps $.05 (he's borderline nit/tagg, running VP$P 20/ PFR 15) and I raise it up to 5x (.25). Blinds fold, EP calls. Pot is $.57 (villain's range is a lot of small pairs and sc's)
Flop comes 2dTsJs. EP checks, and I bet $.30. EP calls. Pot is $1.17. (a lot of sets would've bet here to protect their hands, so his range is a lot of straight and flush draws)
Turn is 3h. EP checks, and I bet $.70... villain thinks for awhile (or sometimes doesn't) and calls. Pot is $2.47.
River is 6h (blank). EP checks... Hero ???
I've tried betting .70-$1.10 for value. I've tried over-betting or shoving to 'fake' a busted flush. I've tried tried betting $.30-$.50 to entice a call. 9 times out of 10 villain is folding his busted draw. I suspect the problem is my bet sizing on the flop and turn, but if I bet more I'm just forcing draws out sooner (which is the side I tend to err on). If I bet less, I'm giving even better odds to chase their draws.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,588
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bet more on flop and turn in those situations.. The villains will still call without proper pot odds. And also keep in mind it's often correct to call a PSB on the flop with a flush draw due to implied odds, so betting larger is not a bad thing. He gets worse odds, and will still call, therefore building a pot with an inferior hand, which obv good for us.
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Squishy_Fish
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Winston-Salem, NC
Posts: 18
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I know it's been said but goddamn that redline is sick. You would be a god at 2+2. The higher your red line the bigger your e-peen is over there.
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: I hope you make me eat my words 'cause my words is pussy, a-pussah-pussay!
Posts: 1,601
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in the hand you posted, there are 0 hand combinations in his range that c/c that river if he's a nit/tagg.
i really think that this is prolly your problem: putting people on ranges and knowing how to maximize against that range. another excellent example of this is your 50% fold to 3b. if passive-ish player makes just his 2nd 3b over 100 hands, and you're OOP w KQs...well think about what hands he could possibly have and how your hand fairs against it.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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bet close to pot and pot river anyway, people at 2NL are NOT folding KJ, JQ
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StillDeadMoney
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Crazy Russian
Posts: 19
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Most good players win without ever showing their cards. This is my impression, at least; imo the red line should be above the blue.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
So i was gone for the weekend but wow...you lynch sdm, you don't shoot ragnar orrrr stax. dumbest fucking village. i hope we lost cause we deserve it. dumb fucks. im also drunk and high but srsly fuck u
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
No fears, people fuck up in this game all the time. Just make sure you deflect your failures by reminding people that SDM is somehow worse.
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walker179
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One Pair
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 24
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Can someone tell me how to make those graphs?
Can you do it with PTv2 or do I need v3?
Thanks
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acehigh19
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 13
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by walker179
Can someone tell me how to make those graphs?
Can you do it with PTv2 or do I need v3?
Thanks
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That's exactly what I was going to ask! Thanks for asking. I find the graphs really helpful, because they break things down for me to understand what works and what doesn't.
So, how do we make em?
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walker179
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One Pair
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 24
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Anyone ?
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ljove
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 80
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Hey it is obviously that you are LAG(loose aggressive) player.Your opponents just have to wait for good hand and take money from you.I love to play against people like you.
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ljove
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 80
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney
Most good players win without ever showing their cards. This is my impression, at least; imo the red line should be above the blue.
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You are talking about hands where are thousands of dollars in pot.You can't easy force your opponent to fold with 0.5$ or 1$ bet.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,814
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those graphs are in PT2, PT3 and holdem manager. Get holdem manager if you don't have a program. You can use the free version for a bit and fix some leaks, then you can actually buy the low stakes version that plays $50NL and under for only $55. They will earn you that money back ina month with being able to go over the 8 articles added to HM and the filters they provide for finding stat ranges you need to fall into.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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I like it :P
You're very likely taking marginal hands to far, and barrelling when you have very little fold equity. But I wouldn't suggest you try to inverse that graph. You have figured out that aggression is the key, and that's a good thing. I think it is much easier to start out by being much too aggressive and then gradually going down. People who nit it up and play 12 tables FR throughout their microstakes career often have a problem adjust their aggression to the games later on.
Don't be obsessed with "fixing" your graph, but rather try to find spots where you shouldn't be c-betting, or shouldn't be barrelling as often.
I like the fact that you're putting up a fight rather than waiting for the nuts... but try to be a little less of a bulldozer and more of a Bruce Lee or something 
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walker179
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One Pair
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 24
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jyms
those graphs are in PT2, PT3 and holdem manager. Get holdem manager if you don't have a program. You can use the free version for a bit and fix some leaks, then you can actually buy the low stakes version that plays $50NL and under for only $55. They will earn you that money back ina month with being able to go over the 8 articles added to HM and the filters they provide for finding stat ranges you need to fall into.
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Thanks jyms,
I have PT2, but unfortunately I am too stupid to figure out how to make those line graphs. I found out how to make other graphs by clicking 'g', but I am not able to add more then 1 line, and not able to add the lines I want
EDIT: I just bought PT3.. way easier!.. this looks 500 times better then PT2
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