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Crotalusatrox
Old 09-23-2005, 09:23 PM     Post subject: I know math but... #1 (permalink)  

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The subject says it all...well mostly. I am not a math genius by any stretch of the imagination, though I do have a grasp on algebra, and even survived first quarter calculus with a B+.

What I would really like though is pointers on how to get better at calculating odds in my head. I have seen a few formulas around that if I had time to pop them into a calculator i could use pretty well. The only "formula" I found that I can do in my head though is 1-10 outs multiplied by 4 to come close(within about 1%) to my odds of hitting an out on the turn. Unfortunately I am not sure if using this is helping my ability to calulate odds on the fly or hurting it.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-24-2005, 02:38 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I hardly do any concious mental math at the table.

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Ivory
Old 09-24-2005, 08:38 AM #3 (permalink)  
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only math i use is pot odds and that usually boils down to "is it cheap" lol
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Old 09-24-2005, 09:25 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
I hardly do any concious mental math at the table.

-'rilla
That's because you don't need to. The real way is to count your outs, count the % chance to hit your draw and the pot %. By pot % I mean the percentage of the pot your call will be. Also, do partial odds by putting your opponent on a range of hands. Sometimes you want to know the pot odds + chance of hitting on the next cards and then adjust for implied odds.

What happens is that after a few times, you'll calculate the pot odds and you'll see your chance of winning the hand HAS to be a lot higher than that without actually multiplying it out. Then you can call.

Although in a lot of situations it's better to raise :)

I use math all the time, but the more experience you have, the less need for it you have. But when you know you're 40% against two overcards and your pot odds are laying you a little better than that, you can call an all-in with say J9s because you know it's an EV+ move with 5 cards to come even if your opponent has two overcards. This makes a really hard decision easier. When you really need to think for a while and the decision is close, this is what you have to do.

If you always just go by "your read" you'll find your decisions will happen to be incorrect when you calculate the odds. Too many times it is very tempting to chase the gutshot, when you REALLY don't have the odds for it and implied odds can't possibly compensate. This is what makes all your decisions easy. 'Rilla played so much he already knows most of the correct decisions.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-24-2005, 10:08 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
... 'Rilla played so much he already knows most of the correct decisions.
That and I don't think 'rilla calls with just a draw very often. The same is true of myself. Unless the pot odds are completely there, I often ignore implied odds on draws. I rely more on playing the player and playing big cards that don't turn in to draws. Otherwise, to keep me in on a draw, it has to be a pretty small bet and/or a pretty strong draw (i.e. oesfd; fd + pair; etc).

It's better to find places to get your money in when you're better than even money to win, or to find spots where you're better than even money to get your opponent to fold thinking you have a better hand.

That said, when I am calculating, I use the (2/4 [flop/turn]) x outs formula mentioned above. It's easy and accurate enough to allow me to make my decision.
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Old 09-24-2005, 10:11 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
... 'Rilla played so much he already knows most of the correct decisions.
That and I don't think 'rilla calls with just a draw very often. The same is true of myself. Unless the pot odds are completely there, I often ignore implied odds on draws. I rely more on playing the player and playing big cards that don't turn in to draws. Otherwise, to keep me in on a draw, it has to be a pretty small bet and/or a pretty strong draw (i.e. oesfd; fd + pair; etc).

It's better to find places to get your money in when you're better than even money to win, or to find spots where you're better than even money to get your opponent to fold thinking you have a better hand.

That said, when I am calculating, I use the (2/4 [flop/turn]) x outs formula mentioned above. It's easy and accurate enough to allow me to make my decision.
In limit you're going to be calling with draws most of the time. In fact, being 35% to win a 4 handed pot is pretty good and requires a bet for value :O
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-24-2005, 10:22 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
In limit you're going to be calling with draws most of the time. In fact, being 35% to win a 4 handed pot is pretty good and requires a bet for value :O
Very true. That said, the original poster, 'rilla, and myself all play no limit.

Heh, just as you typed that I was chatting about my reasons for not playing limit, and mentioned having to get my money in while behind as high on my list.
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CrunchyNuts
Old 09-24-2005, 02:57 PM     Post subject: Re: I know math but... #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crotalusatrox
What I would really like though is pointers on how to get better at calculating odds in my head.
Rough, but good enough, is outs x 2 per card percent, with the caveat that treating flop odds like there's 2 cards coming for the price of one can get you in a bad situation.
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CJmoney
Old 09-24-2005, 07:57 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I find it's easier to just remember the ratio's, since they're easier for me to compare to pot odds... I just memorized the chart on the bottom of this page.
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Xanadu
Old 09-24-2005, 10:36 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Just make yourself a chart that gives you your odds for however many outs. The one card difference between turn and river is pretty much negligible. If you are that close on the call/raise, then other factors should make your decision.

All you have to do is count up your outs and calc your pot odds, and you are set. Don't forget to count outs at their true value ... for example, your baby flush draw is somewhere betwen 7 and 8 outs, not 9 like a nut flush draw. This draw would be worth a little less (as far as outs) for each additional person in the pot.
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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 09-25-2005, 12:50 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Don't forget to count outs at their true value ... for example, your baby flush draw is somewhere betwen 7 and 8 outs, not 9 like a nut flush draw.
...???... An out is an out. If you feel some of the cards that will make your hand will still leave you with second best then you simply don't consider them to begin with you (ie. a flush card that pairs the board). If you have a draw like a baby flush and you think that someone might have a higher flush draw your number of outs is zero. If you don't feel the cards you are drawing for will give you the best hand then you simply don't draw to them.
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DaHorror
Old 09-28-2005, 07:10 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Got the %s...what gets confusing is how much to call into what pot.

An example hand:

MP1
LP2
BB (me) with 6d 7d

MP1 limps for 10c
LP2 (a donk) raises for 30c
I call
MP1 calls

Flop is 5d 6h 8s

So I have an open-ended straight draw (8 outs), and a pair - plus a backdoor flush draw that I would not include in the calculation, but which may give me more outs on the turn.

I check.
MP1 bets 50c into a $1 pot (making the total pot $1.50).
Putting this weak bet on some pair on the board, maybe another straight draw - I figured I had to call 50c into a $2 total pot, with 13 outs (any 6, 7, 4, or 9 helps me) = ~28% to hit on the turn, ~48% by the river.
LP2 folds.
I call.

Turn is 7c so board is now 5d 6h 8s 7c

I go on to win with 2 pair against what turned out to be a wimpily-played queens.

So - my question - did I use the correct pot amount when calculating my odds? The article mentioned in this post talks like percentage players in this case would only call if the pot was 2.5x the bet to them...but is that the pot at the time the bet was placed, the pot including the better's wager, or the total pot after all callers contribute?
In my case, if you use the total pot, or at least the better's pot ($1.50), then I am right in calling - if you have to just consider the $0.50 into a $1.00 pot, then I am not correct...

How is this supposed to be calculated in general?
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Aces
Old 09-28-2005, 08:06 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
That said, when I am calculating, I use the (2/4 [flop/turn]) x outs formula mentioned above. It's easy and accurate enough to allow me to make my decision.
I use a slightly more accurate "easy" turn+river formula. It's' not exact either but much closer.

Outs * 4 - (# of outs over 8)

So 7 outs = 7*4 = 28%
8 outs = 8*4 = 32%
9 outs = 9*4-1 = 35%
etc....
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Crotalusatrox
Old 09-28-2005, 08:16 PM #14 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aces
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
That said, when I am calculating, I use the (2/4 [flop/turn]) x outs formula mentioned above. It's easy and accurate enough to allow me to make my decision.
I use a slightly more accurate "easy" turn+river formula. It's' not exact either but much closer.

Outs * 4 - (# of outs over 8)

So 7 outs = 7*4 = 28%
8 outs = 8*4 = 32%
9 outs = 9*4-1 = 35%
etc....
Sweet! Thanks. I had it down for 1-10 outs using that 2/4 formula, my real problem was for when I had 11+ outs. I kept having to look on my chart, and was worried that the delay while I was looking at the charts would hurt my table image. Thanks muchly everyone for eth feedback though.
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RiverMonkey
Old 09-29-2005, 12:14 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Check out the 3rd post in this thread for some additional pot odds calculations methods:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=7635
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jmontis
Old 09-29-2005, 09:22 AM #16 (permalink)  
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effective odds are something I struggled with for a long time, you might say "oh i have 4:1 to call on my flush, nice, oh crap he's all-in on the turn, fold"

repeat that 1000 times and you officially have a gaping leak.
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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johnny_fish
Old 09-29-2005, 03:44 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Seems +EV to me if that happens regularly. Implied odds increase against aggressive opps.
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Xanadu
Old 09-30-2005, 11:02 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
...???... An out is an out. If you feel some of the cards that will make your hand will still leave you with second best then you simply don't consider them to begin with you (ie. a flush card that pairs the board). If you have a draw like a baby flush and you think that someone might have a higher flush draw your number of outs is zero. If you don't feel the cards you are drawing for will give you the best hand then you simply don't draw to them.
Sorry, DaNuts, but you are wrong. When you play poker, you always have to compare your hand and what your hand will be if you improve to the range of hands your opponent may have. You can never know, when holding for example, QJs with a 4-flush on the flop, that there is a higher flush draw out there against you. It's not a question of counting 9 outs or 0. If you are counting outs to determine if you have the right odds to call, you have to weigh each out by the chance that out will give you the best hand. If your draw is to the nuts, the outs have full value. Any draw that is not to the nuts has a lesser value per out. Since you can't see your opponents' cards, you can't count all or none.
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CrunchyNuts
Old 09-30-2005, 11:48 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xanadu
Sorry, DaNuts, but you are wrong. When you play poker, you always have to compare your hand and what your hand will be if you improve to the range of hands your opponent may have. You can never know, when holding for example, QJs with a 4-flush on the flop, that there is a higher flush draw out there against you. It's not a question of counting 9 outs or 0. If you are counting outs to determine if you have the right odds to call, you have to weigh each out by the chance that out will give you the best hand. If your draw is to the nuts, the outs have full value. Any draw that is not to the nuts has a lesser value per out. Since you can't see your opponents' cards, you can't count all or none.
So very true. You can make good money letting people draw to what they think are clean outs. That's kinda what slowplay is all about, eh?
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Jiggus
Old 10-01-2005, 10:50 AM     Post subject: IOPQ Wrote,... #20 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by iopq

But when you know you're 40% against two overcards and your pot odds are laying you a little better than that, you can call an all-in with say J9s because you know it's an EV+ move with 5 cards to come even if your opponent has two overcards.
Could someone please explain the above with a bit more detail. I'm not quite following.

Is it that I'm 1.5:1 against (40%) and the pot odds are, say 2:1?

"Against two overcards"? How do I know I'm against two overcards? The example implies that this is still pre-flop.

And why can I call all-in with J9s (though I would only play something that weak from the big blind) and know that it's positive expected value?

Many thanks in advance.

Jigs
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