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unlucky#
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12-22-2006, 06:52 AM
Post subject: " I have a question that i need help on" thanks ev
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14
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i'm kind of still in the early stages of learning poker and not sure exactly what Harrington means in his volume 1 book on page 124 where he says and i will quote, "To be more precise in your calculation multiply the size of your intended bet by the probability he will call it." Is there a number that represents the probabiity he will call it? if someone could, plz explain it as simple as you can if you can, if you can't just explain it the way you can. thanks everyone!
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Zee Devee
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Wisconsin
Posts: 694
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Ok well this is talking about implied odds. Lets say you hold Ax of spades, and you have 4 to a flush on the turn against one opponent. The pot is 100, and he bets 60 into you. Looking at the expressed odds you don't have the odds to call, because he is giving you 3:8 odds, when you need 1:4 (ish) to make this a correct call.
But if you think you are going to get more money if you hit your flush then you can take those implied odds into account. Lets say you two are both deepstacked (30+BB) in the example above. If you hit your flush, and bet 200 and he calls, that extra money is the implied odds you got from calling the turn.
But what Harrington says is you will never know for sure you will get called when you make your hand, so you have to estimate how likely he will call your river bet assuming you made your flush. THis is what Harrington is saying- to multiply how often opp will call and the amount you will bet. In the example above, he would have to call about 40% of the time (.4x200=80, 80 added to the money in the pot (160) is 240. Putting in 60 on the turn to get 240 on the river is 1:4.)
This is read dependant, if you saw him previously call big river bets after betting the turn like this, or not being able to let go of some piece of the flop, then I'd say the percentage that he will call is high, but if opp can fold, then it will be lower.
Hoped that helped, that is how I think of it at least, but honestly, at the table I don't really think about math that much (which is probably a bad thing), I just decide, based on the action of the table, if implied odds are there (I usually think they are if opp is loose and the expressed odds are not too far off.)
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unlucky#
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14
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thanks so much Zee Devee, your wonderful.
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unlucky#
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14
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i'm first to act after the flop, i have a flush draw, and i want to bet instead of checking, how do i know how much to bet to make my pot odds favorable or am i supposed to check in this kind of situation? thanks.
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Dave Davis
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 100
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by unlucky#
i'm first to act after the flop, i have a flush draw, and i want to bet instead of checking, how do i know how much to bet to make my pot odds favorable or am i supposed to check in this kind of situation? thanks.
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It depends on the flop texture. If there is an AKQ kind of a flop and 3 opponents someone probably hit it so if you bet you might get raised, costing you extra dollars to draw to a flush. I don't think you can steal the pot right here. Building a pot in this scenario is a bad thing because of the dangerous of getting raised and you don't have any fold equity I think. So in this case just check calling is a great stuff I believe. You usually bet flush draw as a c bet or if you feel you have fold equity. In LP if everyone has checked around you might try betting out but in EP I don't think it is a good idea.
How you play your draw, depends on position. In LP you can play it more aggressively than in EP I believe. Also look for a flop texture which is also explained in Harrington.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by unlucky#
i'm first to act after the flop, i have a flush draw, and i want to bet instead of checking, how do i know how much to bet to make my pot odds favorable or am i supposed to check in this kind of situation? thanks.
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The best odds you get are when you check and your opponent checks. That gives you infinite pot odds to hit your draw. The only times you want to bet a hand like this are
a) blocking bet that is smaller than the bet your opponent would make if you check.
b) semi-bluff if you think he has a chance of folding
c) deception if you think a bet here will make your opponent think you didnt hit a draw and he'll pay you off big . (<- wont work against most players.)
You work out the pot odds for a) and b) exactly as you usually would. Compare the amount you stand to win with the amount you stand to lose. To decide if its a good bet you need to compare that with the probability it will work and you will take down the pot.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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Hmm, I bet 90% of my flush draws on the flop. Is this wrong?
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freechus9
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: IN UR BOX HAXXING UR FILEZ
Posts: 1,000
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by biondino
Hmm, I bet 90% of my flush draws on the flop. Is this wrong?
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I like making money, too.
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My sig is too much for you to handle.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by biondino
Hmm, I bet 90% of my flush draws on the flop. Is this wrong?
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depends who youre playing against. Youre decreasing the pot odds you are getting for drawing to your flush but you are adding a possibility that you may not need to hit your flush to win (if everyone folds). You are also making sure the pot you take down if you hit is bigger which potentially boosts your implied odds.
If you are playing against passive calling stations then betting the flop is usually terrible since they will check if you check but will call later on when you bet (after you hit).
If you are playing in a fairly shorthanded pot with weak tight players (that just could well fold) then a semibluff might be the right way to go about it. In this case the profit comes from them folding rather than you hitting. Your flush is just backup incase you have misjudged the situation.
p.s. you know all this already
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,814
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by biondino
Hmm, I bet 90% of my flush draws on the flop. Is this wrong?
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90% of the time your not getting money after you hit. so you need to start trying to get them to battle for the pot, no? I Bet all my FD and my OESD the same as my other C bets, 3/4 to PSB. 60% of those never get to the turn if HU.
And then their's the times that I get them all in after hitting the nut flush on the turn and the board double pairs on the river and I stack of my 175BB to the moron on my right with 200BB that just lucked out on someone else with AJs all in vs KK.
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