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I have a problem with my odds
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Waggho
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01-15-2005, 09:11 AM
Post subject: I have a problem with my odds
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 260
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This is the problem: I flop a hand that is probably dominated but has some potential (like second pair with ace kicker). Someone bets pretty weakly, like half pot size or less. I very much consider folding, but then decide to call and hope for twopair or trips. The odds are not so incorrect.
Turn comes, no trips or two pair and the bettor puts out another weak bet, the same amount as last time. As the pot is now almost twice as big, I call again. River comes and all I have is second pair with Ace high, bettor throws out ANOTHER weak bet of the same amount. By now, the pot has grown so much that his bet is just 1/10 of the pot, and I think "well, there must be one chance in ten that I win this hand". Bettor has TPGK and wins the pot.
Now, is this kind of chasing somewhat correct? When someone with top pair bets weakly, he´s giving me free cards, right? The problem is, that in the first place (at the flop) I think that I will fold if I don´t hit but then I don´t, because I look at the pot and count and if I could call at the flop, the odds are about the same to call on the turn.
What do you think? When is the right time to get out of the hand?
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Obertray
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seems to me that you could have folded on the flop ... but calling isnt something I like to do much. Not really sure if the 2 pair is a good enough draw, but you thought u might have the best hand. I might have raised him ... see what he does. But I think folding is better.
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michael1123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Rochester Hills, MI
Posts: 1,720
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Its ok to call in situations like this, as long as they'll pay you off big if you do improve, as long as your 5 outs are clean. If you have 2nd pair and an A kicker and he has TPTK than he has your A covered too, and then you just have two outs, which clearly make it a poor call. I'd be much better to be calling players like this down on straight and flush draws, with the odds they're laying you.
I don't recommend raising a loose passive player on 2nd pair, as it really doesn't give you any information, since they'll almost always just call, whether they have bottom pair or TPTK. If he's tight passive, than its worth considering, but tight passive players don't bluff that often either. The raise is a better move against a tight aggressive player who could very easily be bluffing at the flop after a preflop raise, and they will respect your raise.
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aleksandr
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 305
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There is a hole in pot odds off the flop that I sometimes like to take advantage of to elicit some cash off of tight flushdrawers when they come 1v1. On the turn your odds are half what the pot odds suggest to make your card.
For instance, if I raise 40% of the pot on my tptk or two pair vs. flush draw, the pot is now 1.4 pot. Your odds of beating me by the river are what, 36%? So you make about .2 pot profit a hand, right? However, half the time, your card doesn't come out on the turn, and I can then make a pot sized bet to drive you out of the hand, which you should fold every time. So really, what you are betting on is your TURN odds, as if your card does not come on the turn, you must by odds fold the river.
This is a classic leak. The fix? Against opponents who offer consistant small bets to the river and probably fold to reraises, calculate your pot odds based on twice your bet.
Your river call here is solid, it's not a leak if you can judge your win% to be more that 10% in this situation. Look over your hand histories, make a list of where you called with mid or low pair on the river, and divide wins/hands played, and that'll give you a number to work with that goes with who you like call based on how good your reads are for calling on the river. You also get some info here, so the call isn't bad at all.
You have 5 outs to hit your twopair. The odds of him having you covered if you hit it are 2/45, about 4%. On an ace I'd give him credit for 8-10%, because you're never playing against one player's hand, you're playing agianst a hand that holds up against 9 players.
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Obertray
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Your talking about effective odds ... TOP has a section on Effective odds, but it only discusses limit. I am not sure I have a clear Idea how to think about them in terms of NL ... Ill have to think about this one for a while. Anyone have any suggestions about how to incorperate future rounds of betting into your pot odds?
Quote:
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I don't recommend raising a loose passive player on 2nd pair, as it really doesn't give you any information, since they'll almost always just call, whether they have bottom pair or TPTK. If he's tight passive, than its worth considering, but tight passive players don't bluff that often either. The raise is a better move against a tight aggressive player who could very easily be bluffing at the flop after a preflop raise, and they will respect your raise.
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Yeah, your right. My bad
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Excalibur
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 81
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I would have raised him on the flop...
If he reraises - fold
If he calls and then raises again on the turn - fold.
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