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I have Ace and King! - Ragnars thoughts about Big Slick.

  
 
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Ragnar4
Old 12-21-2008, 04:58 AM     Post subject: I have Ace and King! - Ragnars thoughts about Big Slick. #1 (permalink)  
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To start off, I want to post some scenarios.

AA vs AKo
AK Wins 7.425% of the time

KK vs AKo
AK wins 30% of the time

QQ-22 vs AKo
AK is a Coinflip of varying degrees.

76s vs AKo
AKo Wins 58% of the time.

JTs vs AKo
58% AKo winnar.

AKo vs Axs (dominiation)
AKo wins about 70% of the time.

Note: At any point in time, if AK happens to be suited, add about 4% to AK's winning percentage.

Anyone who's spent a large amount of time around poker, has probably familiarized themselves with this list of odds. Because as things go, one of the most important things about hold em, is you are normally in one of very few boats. You're either 4-1 to win, 2-1 to win, a coinflip, or 2-1 to lose, or 4-1 to lose.

There's a 3-2 scenario out there too, (ie J8o vs ATo AT is a 3-2 favorite here) but obviously it's not possible to be in a 3-2 scenario with AKo. Do you see why?

The reason I'm throwing all of these numbers out there, is this: I read a really good article a while back, from a pretty reputable source. It was such a good source that, I put it in my file of "shit to remember" on my computer. I wish I had saved the source card, because I'd like to write an angry e-mail to this guy, but I don't remember who it is.

The premise of the article was simple: If you have AKo at the micros you should really consider getting it AI Preflop Heads up against your opponent all the time. It takes the guesswork out of the hand. The jist of the argument why is this:

1) AKo is knockout dead to only one hand, and has a fair shot or is a favorite against *every* other hand out there.

2) At the Micros, the types of hands that some of these retards will get it all in with is ridiculous. When for the most part, a very, very slim range of hands should be putting all their chips in the middle.

3) Therefore since your opponent plays too many hands too losely, you should be willing to get it all in against them and be amazingly aggressive with AKo.

Here's the problem; for about the last 6 months, this guy has been wrong. Not amazingly dead wrong, or even mostly wrong, only sort of wrong.

Let's take a look at two very possible situations.

1) Let's say it's a normal table, and your opponent bets out 4x the bb. You re-raise him to 12x the bb and he pops you back for the fourth bet. If you shove it in right here, your opponent --thinks wrongly-- that he has to call a lot of hands that are beaten, and I think you do stand to have good equity against your opponents range + the equity that your opponent may (albeit very small) fold.

2) Same opponent, but this time, you raise from EP and your opponent pops you back for 12x, and you knock him for 40x and he shoves. STOP, this can't be a snapcall can it? From your typical opponent, how often, seriously how often is this *not*KK+
To which you are a 4-1 dog against the entire range.

Even if you add a few more hands, we're still in pretty dire straights, adding AKo and AKs to the mix, you don't gain any sort of a tangible equity edge, and don't let the better looking number fool you. Check out the nasty % to tie there at the bottom. Things didn't get any better, you just get your money back every once in a while.

Even at JJ+ your percentage to tie versus the range makes this matchup look rather bleak.

In fact, after a little bit of poking around your opponents calling range needs to be right around 88+ KQs+ AJo+ to be a worthwhile matchup for you. Think back to the last solid reg that got it in against you being the one shoving over a 40bb re-re-raise and ask yourself, when was the last time it was AJo?

Even now I'm doubting what was the original premise of my argument. Which is: if you want to get AK all in preflop, you should be the one shoving, you should NOT be the one calling in normal circumstances. Because Fold Equity plus the chance you'll draw out, plus the bloated pot plus the chance your favored or a coinflip is +EV over time. BUT If you're the one calling the shove, you really need to take a second look at his stats/hand history/player notes before you click that call button. Doubting the premise or not, I'm sticking to the argument.

Thoughts, Comments, Suggestions?
BC Mods, Spoon, anybody that plays above 25nl... if this is Bullturds and utterly wrong, lemmie know.. I'll delete the post.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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bigspenda73
Old 12-21-2008, 05:07 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 re-stove AKo vs 76s
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Ragnar4
Old 12-21-2008, 05:10 AM #3 (permalink)  
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good point.. fixt
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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bigspenda73
Old 12-21-2008, 05:15 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 also, you're rarely 9:1 to win, it's 4:1 bub
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Ragnar4
Old 12-21-2008, 05:18 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
good point.. fixt
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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JKDS
Old 12-21-2008, 05:24 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 i think you need a reallly tight opponent to fold. The money already in the pot is enough to be on the wrong side of a coinflip with QQ, and blockers make AA and KK less likely. Meanwhile the chance of him having AQ is enough to balance the rest, as we are 51% to win (AKo, AKs) vs (AQo+, AQs+, QQ+).
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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Old 12-21-2008, 05:28 AM #7 (permalink)  
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So that's why you have to have reads. Once I got AK against a fish, I proceeded to raise, he 3b me, I 4b, he 5b shoved, I called

he shows AQo
any time AQ is in his range, that's more combinations than AA/KK combined

so that's where the rule "if AQ is in opponent's range, AK becomes a shove" comes from
against a nit AK becomes a flat, don't even 3b a nit with AK
against a tag at the micros... well tags actually play like nits at the micros so the same advice applies

I've never got it in good vs. a micro tag with AK, but I have vs. fish that think AQ is the nuts
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Erpel
Old 12-22-2008, 11:11 AM     Post subject: Re: I have Ace and King! - Ragnars thoughts about Big Slic #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
2) Same opponent, but this time, you raise from EP and your opponent pops you back for 12x, and you knock him for 40x and he shoves. STOP, this can't be a snapcall can it? From your typical opponent, how often, seriously how often is this *not*KK+ To which you are a 4-1 dog against the entire range.
Assume 100bb stacks

You already have 40bb in the pot - you are considering calling 60bb to win 140bb - you don't need 50% to win, you need 30% to win. The only time you do not have 30% to win is if you are up against a range no wider than AA, KK, AKs. Even QQ+ gives you 30%.
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TightPie
Old 12-22-2008, 04:37 PM #9 (permalink)  
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AK gets its full odds if you can ensure you get to see all 5 cards.
If you have AK and reguardless of how the betting was, your villan gets to see the flop, AK loses a small % of its value when it hits the flop, and it loses a huge % of its value when it misses the flop.
I think if there is a chance you will fold to a shove, then you should try to keep the pot small so you lose less when you do fold. But if you will call all his reraises , then i think shoving is best.

On the flip side, if you are a better player than villan, is the small % advantage you have over him worth going broke.
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gingerwizard
Old 12-22-2008, 05:06 PM     Post subject: Re: I have Ace and King! - Ragnars thoughts about Big Slic #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erpel
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
2) Same opponent, but this time, you raise from EP and your opponent pops you back for 12x, and you knock him for 40x and he shoves. STOP, this can't be a snapcall can it? From your typical opponent, how often, seriously how often is this *not*KK+ To which you are a 4-1 dog against the entire range.
Assume 100bb stacks

You already have 40bb in the pot - you are considering calling 60bb to win 140bb - you don't need 50% to win, you need 30% to win. The only time you do not have 30% to win is if you are up against a range no wider than AA, KK, AKs. Even QQ+ gives you 30%.
That's the point. The 4 bet usually commits you to a call unless the guy is tight and you think it's KK+.

At micros I think JJ+ is often played as the nuts, so unless I have a read over a good sample, I'm calling.
This is not my signature. I just write this at the bottom of every post.
 
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bode
Old 12-22-2008, 05:50 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 AK gots dem blockers
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
 
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griffey24
Old 12-23-2008, 01:21 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 Just stumbled across this. I'm not that familiar with the play at micro's at all, so take anything I say with a grain of salt (though I may try checking out threads in this forum a bit more, and giving some feedback).

I'm pretty torn on getting in AK at micro's or not. It was my impression that raising/3betting/4betting at lower limits is much more rare than at higher limits. By this reasoning, we should be less likely to get it in with AK, given that the range of hands we're facing a 3bet/4bet against is much stronger (ie: we're less likely to be dominating villain, when we're all-in).

The opposite end of the spectrum might say that some players at lower stakes may be looser/more likely to get it in light/with questionable holdings (I'm not sure if this is true?). In which case, we may get it in with AK vs AJ/AQ more than we'd expect to.

After reading this post I realize it comes down to nothing more than an "It depends" post. Which I guess is pretty fitting. It DOES depend. If a player is being a monkey, obviously get it in pre. If a player hasn't 3bet you an entire session, and suddenly 3-bets your EP raise hard from the blinds. It's not the end of the world to drop AK, right then and there. This applies from micro's to higher limits even.

What should you do with AK pre?

It depends. As it should.
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Old 12-23-2008, 01:32 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
Just stumbled across this. I'm not that familiar with the play at micro's at all, so take anything I say with a grain of salt (though I may try checking out threads in this forum a bit more, and giving some feedback).

I'm pretty torn on getting in AK at micro's or not. It was my impression that raising/3betting/4betting at lower limits is much more rare than at higher limits. By this reasoning, we should be less likely to get it in with AK, given that the range of hands we're facing a 3bet/4bet against is much stronger (ie: we're less likely to be dominating villain, when we're all-in).

The opposite end of the spectrum might say that some players at lower stakes may be looser/more likely to get it in light/with questionable holdings (I'm not sure if this is true?). In which case, we may get it in with AK vs AJ/AQ more than we'd expect to.

After reading this post I realize it comes down to nothing more than an "It depends" post. Which I guess is pretty fitting. It DOES depend. If a player is being a monkey, obviously get it in pre. If a player hasn't 3bet you an entire session, and suddenly 3-bets your EP raise hard from the blinds. It's not the end of the world to drop AK, right then and there. This applies from micro's to higher limits even.

What should you do with AK pre?

It depends. As it should.
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allabout
Old 12-23-2008, 12:55 PM #14 (permalink)  
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I would definitely rather be the one shoving than calling a shove w/AK, but I do call sometimes, like Griffey said, it depends. However, I think when we can shove AK even versus a tight player who 3 bets us, they can at least think about folding. I've had people say they folded JJ QQ and even KK etc. vs my shove w/AK.

Also I looked at my stats from the year at 50 and 100nl (dont have big enough sample at $10 or $25nl). Got AKo and AKs ai preflop 120 times at 50nl for 126bb/100 and 98 times at 100nl for 670bb/100. So perhaps the higher you go the more profitable it is? Maybe someone higher up can confirm or deny? This is full ring btw.
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Old 12-23-2008, 02:57 PM #15 (permalink)  
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