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AFchung
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02-15-2009, 02:55 AM
Post subject: I folded. Then cried after.
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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31/3 over 150+ hands
Pretty sure this is a standard fold, but what is his range on the river?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
Button ($22.80)
SB ($14.75)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($10.05)
UTG+1 ($33.35)
MP1 ($15.45)
MP2 ($12.30)
MP3 ($25.25)
CO ($16.10)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 7
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, 3 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks
Flop: ($1) 7 , 10 , 4 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, UTG+1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold
Turn: ($4) 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 1 fold
River: ($12) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $20, Hero folds
Total pot: $12 | Rake: $0.55
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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villian has either T 9 or 8 9 or has the freaken' balls of titanium...
in these situations once in a while i'd fire again on the river even though there's 4 to a straight out there... surprisingly i still get called by worse but at least it takes away the chance to be bluffed out of a pot...
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DA9ers
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Two Pair
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 48
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yeah that overbet is scary because usually at this level when people make overbets, they usually have the goods and sometimes even get paid off. i like the fold
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kb coolman
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 596
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Good fold. I hate sets on a 4straight board....so painful.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Question:
Is the turn bet (pot on a wet board) big enough here?
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kb coolman
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 596
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How much is he not calling here? And why would you spew?
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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He has J-9, 10-9, 5-6, 6-9, or 7-9, right? And while it's possible he has 2 clubs, it isn't particularly likely.
So if he has J-9 or 6-9, he's made his straight. If he has 5-6, 7-9 or 10-9, he's on a draw, 8 cards out of 45, turn or river. We have priced that draw at 2-1, so if he reads you as giving him a check on the turn, he may call here. If he reads you as likely to bet the turn, he's going to fold.
When I face this situation in no-limit, I tend to make the price a bit higher. But I am not convinced of this-- that's why I phrased it as an open-ended question.
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loonychune
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 145
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People are saying: "good fold, he's got 1 of 2 hands or he's bluffing and overbets are usually the nuts."
Quote:
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In these situations once in a while i'd fire again on the river
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How often do you fire again? When you do, are you just hoping a player decides 'well, since he's bet, i'll just have to call my AT or TJ' coz I can't get him to fold a better hand now?
What's his calling range?
JJ-99,44,J9s+,T9s,98s,J9o+,T9o,98o perhaps?
Against which we have 20% equity. So if we bet $8, we'll win $12 once and lose $8 4 times... that's -$20 expected value.
But what's his range for betting on the river when we check?
JJ-99,44,ATs,KTs,J9s+,T9s,98s,ATo,KTo,J9o+,T9o,98o maybe?
By throwing in a few hands that made top pair before the river he might bluff with, our equity shoots up to 42%. So by not betting we allow him to fire his hands that were top pair up until the J came.
Let y be his bet size when we check. Then we require that
y <= 0.42(12 + y)
That is,
y <= $8.70
to call vs this range.
I've been NLHE playing properly for 2 months and haven't been involved a great deal here, so surely some of you lot with zillions of posts should have a bit more to say. Even though what you say can be read between the lines, other members might not make such inferences.
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why did you cry? he could have easily bet $6 and made you call when he had a straight
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
why did you cry? he could have easily bet $6 and made you call when he had a straight
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+1
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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I actually prefer a shove on the turn.. even a check is better than a bet in my opinion.
That board really sucks for a valuebet.. there is no hand that called the flop that isn't calling the turn here.. but a lot of hands that are behind might call a shove.. and you have a redraw against hands you are behind. I threw in an example range I believe the villain probably would have had as it played out.
Board: 7d Ts 4c 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.266% 54.27% 00.00% 1552 0.00 { 7c7h }
Hand 1: 45.734% 45.73% 00.00% 1308 0.00 { 99, 44, J9s+, T9s, 65s, J9o+, T9o, 65o }
Shove the turn and don't look back.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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having shove the turn even cross your mind in a $4 pot with $23 behind is just indicative of someone who plays scared poker.
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Outlaw
I actually prefer a shove on the turn.. even a check is better than a bet in my opinion.
That board really sucks for a valuebet.. there is no hand that called the flop that isn't calling the turn here.. but a lot of hands that are behind might call a shove.. and you have a redraw against hands you are behind. I threw in an example range I believe the villain probably would have had as it played out.
Board: 7d Ts 4c 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.266% 54.27% 00.00% 1552 0.00 { 7c7h }
Hand 1: 45.734% 45.73% 00.00% 1308 0.00 { 99, 44, J9s+, T9s, 65s, J9o+, T9o, 65o }
Shove the turn and don't look back.
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shoving $20+ into a $4 pot? something doesn't sound right here 
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by loonychune
Against which we have 20% equity. So if we bet $8, we'll win $12 once and lose $8 4 times... that's -$20 expected value.
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ok, so per the fish #1 mistake thread, what could we possibly do to create a closer to +EV situation if we wanted to bet/fold?
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
ok, so per the fish #1 mistake thread, what could we possibly do to create a closer to +EV situation if we wanted to bet/fold?
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Get the ranges right? 
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loonychune
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 145
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You have to elaborate oskar! It's all very well saying, his range isn't what I said, but you've got to tell me why and suggest a more appropriate range! Try being a bit more f'ing constructive.
I really respect you a great deal more as a poker player now. Thanks.
Quote:
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ok, so per the fish #1 mistake thread, what could we possibly do to create a closer to +EV situation if we wanted to bet/fold?
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Going off the equities I gave, we could bet smaller, like $3 so we're winning $12 for every 4 times we lose $3. Our equity might be better if we smaller bet too since he might be tempted to call with a very marginal hand.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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yea def. the second part, we could choose a smaller bet that might possibly widen his calling range to a point where we're actually ahead of it, something like $5 or $6.
However, looking at the board texture+river card it's just very unlikely we'll find a hand range that we'll be better than about 30% against on the river if we bet. Therefore we have a few options, most of them involve first checking the river.
The first part, betting smaller because we lose less when we're called isn't the reason to size our value-bets small. When is the perfect play to bet the smallest amount that won't be called?
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loonychune
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 145
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Quote:
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When is the perfect play to bet the smallest amount that won't be called?
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I'd have said this is what we are looking to do when we continuation bet bluff. By this I mean, after showing aggression PF, on certain board textures that we probably have the worse hand (e.g. our AQ misses a KJ2 flop, opponent might fold AJ or TT say), we want to bet the smallest amount possible that won't be called.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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loonychune... villain is 31/3 which usually means he calls down if a lot of crap post flop if we don't have any other information.
This could be Tx also, or some amibious draws that made a pair. If he was calling you down on flop and turn with a T, there is no reason why he would fold the river to a 2/3PS value bet. Even if he can read boards he's not likely to be worried about you having a straight.
I agree that most of his range beats you on the river, but giving yourself 20% equity is too pessimistic imo.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by oskar
loonychune... villain is 31/3 which usually means he calls down if a lot of crap post flop if we don't have any other information.
This could be Tx also, or some amibious draws that made a pair. If he was calling you down on flop and turn with a T, there is no reason why he would fold the river to a 2/3PS value bet. Even if he can read boards he's not likely to be worried about you having a straight.
I agree that most of his range beats you on the river, but giving yourself 20% equity is too pessimistic imo.
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unless you're the guy who created pokerstove you just cannot say stuff like that. It takes 30 more seconds than what it took you to post that to create a range, run it in pokerstove, and show us the results.
edit: loony even missed 88 and 56
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loonychune
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 145
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Code:
Board: Ks Jc 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.903% 64.58% 04.32% 828642 55413.00 { 22+, AJs+, KJs+, AJo+, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 31.097% 26.78% 04.32% 343572 55413.00 { AQo }
I'm rushing out, but put this together concerning C-bets... hand 0 is villain's assumed range... so we might look to bet about half pot on the flop?
oskar:
Thanks. I think either way is range for betting when checked to is a good deal wider than his calling/raising range. If we're raised in this spot, do you think then that our 'value bet' has turned out to be a bet for information and it's an easy fold? Or do we say, well, his range is still pretty wide I have to call if i'm getting better than 2:1 or so on the pot?
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mediumhand
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 27
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no need to think about their range, just fold. these guys always have it.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Stop posting in every damn thread if you're going to bring nothing new to it. Keep doing it and today will be the last day you do.
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by loonychune
How often do you fire again? When you do, are you just hoping a player decides 'well, since he's bet, i'll just have to call my AT or TJ' coz I can't get him to fold a better hand now?
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it's pretty rare... usually against loose villains that have a big bet river percentage... i'm not giving them a chance to bluff me off a pot on such a scary board lol...
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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how often is this villain bluffing zorrito when we check to him and what amount would he typically bet?
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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villain generally bets river more than 60% more than than not it's like 25% of the pot at most...
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loonychune
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 145
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Villain bets 25% of the pot on the river. That $3 into a $12 pot.
60% of the time he's 'bluffing'. That means we win $15 60% of the time at the expense of $3, and we lose $3 40% of the time.
Expectation: 0.6*(15) - 0.4(3) = 9 - 1.2 = + $7.80
Let's say instead we decide to bet for value. If you have a read on a player that he big bet bluffs the river a lot then you simply check and call!!! So i'm not concerning myself with that now.
A decent sized value bet is what, $8 ?
What % of hands in his 60% 'bluff' range does he call with? Say 20%?
For our $8 we will take down a $12 + $8 pot then 20% of the time. The other 80% of the time we're losing $8 in this spot.
Expectation: 0.2*(20) - 0.8*(8) = 4 - 6.4 = -$2.40.
I'm pretty sure you just picked a few arbitrary numbers, so I have picked one myself, the 20%.
Why don't you determine the range of hands he continues with on the river and then pick out all the ones he beats us and work out what % of his range those hands are.
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2ndline.4thstreet
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 120
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It hurts to do it, but you have to fold here. Sucks.
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Vrax
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Poland
Posts: 632
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Pot odds + passive player + lots of nines in his flatcall/flatcall/bomb range = super easy fold.
Bet/fold river looks like better line against that type of player.
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"How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Block bet the river please.
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Block bet the river please.
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what % of the pot is an optimal blocking bet? 1/2?
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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As small as it can be while maintaining credibility. I think $6 is good here.
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Block bet the river please.
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What do you do when you get minraised?
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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fold
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