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I called but aren't we supposse to fold this?

  
 
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littleogre
Old 12-07-2009, 09:01 AM     Post subject: I called but aren't we supposse to fold this? #1 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 Villain has a cpfr of 40 percent and a af of.28 so he is super passive post flop. Honestly can't see such a player ever semi bluffing here or having anything that i beat. He likely isn't semi bluffing and such a passive guy would like just call down if he just got a pair on the flop. I'm honestly not even sure if he would lead out with an over pair weaker then my Qs.
Absolute Poker (Cash Game): $0.01/$0.02 NL, 9 players
Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:15:31 EST
Powered by Poker Academy (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($1.42)
BB ($2.39)
B6 ($0.76)
B5 ($3.37)
B4 ($2.13)
B3 ($3.72)
B2 ($1.83)
Hero ($1.31)
BN ($2.25)

BN is the button.

Precards:
SB posts the small blind $0.01, BB posts the big blind $0.02.

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q Q (9 active)
B6 folds, B5 calls $0.02, B4 calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, 3 folds, B5 calls $0.10, B4 calls $0.10.

Flop: 4 5 8 ($0.39, 3 active)
B5 bets $0.39, B4 folds, Hero raises to $1.19 (all-in), [color=#6495ed]B5 calls $0.80
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Hoopy
Old 12-07-2009, 11:02 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Hoopy is an unknown quantity at this point
 I'm sure he'd do this with JJ-99 and good 8x hands as well so I don't mind stacking off on this flop.

How many hands did you have on him + what were his other stats?
 
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littleogre
Old 12-07-2009, 11:22 AM #3 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 have 230 hands on villain. Perhaps i'm underestimating the aggressiveness of a player with an af of.28. Isn't a player with such low post flop aggression only gonna bet a big hand?
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littleogre
Old 12-07-2009, 11:31 AM #4 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 Oh i also think my stack off is usually correct. My main question is how do we adjust versus players who are super passive post flop. Sure we need to take more notice of their bets and raises as they are not likely to bluff. How much more notice though? Should we say just assume he has the str8 when he leads out on the flop and just run for the hills?
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Monty3038
Old 12-07-2009, 03:10 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I wouldn't over think this too much, villian IMO has a pretty wide range, I'm thinking Ax, 22+. QJ+, KT+, I'm also believing flush draws are intense amount of his range on this flop, so likely we are way ahead here... I agree with getting it in.

Take my words with a grain of salt though, I'm no pro.
 
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tomato paste carnage
Old 12-07-2009, 06:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
have 230 hands on villain. Perhaps i'm underestimating the aggressiveness of a player with an af of.28. Isn't a player with such low post flop aggression only gonna bet a big hand?
Stats aren't a cut-and-dry way of predicting the way an opponent is going to play a hand.
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celtic123
Old 12-07-2009, 07:44 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tomato paste carnage

Stats aren't a cut-and-dry way of predicting the way an opponent is going to play a hand.


Predicting the future is more reliabable when past events are taken into consideration.

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jyms
Old 12-07-2009, 07:49 PM #8 (permalink)  
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jyms has a spectacular aura aboutjyms has a spectacular aura aboutjyms has a spectacular aura about
 Yea he would only bet his good hand with that low of an AF. The question is on this board, what is he thinking is a good hand?
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surviva316
Old 12-07-2009, 09:07 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 you might be HEAVILY overestimating the value of the AF stat. let's say villain is 100/40/.28 and never folds a hand post flop ever. he pretty much check/calls everything. all his AF means is that villain calls almost 4 times as much as he bets. So without doing any kind of extreme heavy lifting in the way of math, this hypothetical villain can prolly bet as wide as TPNK+, and draws of 8 outs or better (and probably even MPGK hands) every single time on every single street and still be calling 4 times as often as he's betting. that's a complete guesstimate, and an unrealistic scenario, but you get the idea.

Agression FREQUENCY is the number where if it's deathly low, THEN you have a certainty that villain just never bets. ALLLL that being said, even if his AFq is deathly low, he can only bet TPNK+ hands and maybe some semi bluffs every once in a while and bet nothing else and call way too much and still see enough streets with a weak enough range to achieve that passivity.

so all that being said, making some assumptions on villain because we weren't given many reads:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

305,910 games 0.011 secs 27,810,000 games/sec

Board: 8c 5s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.656% 62.56% 01.09% 191386 3345.00 { QcQs, QdQs, QhQs }
Hand 1: 36.344% 35.25% 01.09% 107834 3345.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QQ-88, 55-44, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 85s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o }

he's prolly not folding often to your raise once he bets, so i think his betting range~his continuing range.

other points: why are you bought in for 65bbs at 2nl? why do we have no reads on such a loose villain after 230 friggin hands? that last point is prolly the biggest leak in this hand, and why it's so unnecessarily difficult to put villain on a hand
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Fnord
Old 12-08-2009, 04:19 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Ridc standard.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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inV1NCEble
Old 12-11-2009, 08:09 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Ridiculously standard cause he's never bluffing or because you're never folding your QQs here. For me this is not standard so I would like to know your inside fnord

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Fnord
Old 12-12-2009, 07:03 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Not folding.

o We have a goodish over-pair in a bigish pot.
o Opponent plays badly
o Wet board
o Opponent's line looks like he's protecting something. AA/KK don't seem as likely as 99-JJ given the pre-flop action and number of combinations.
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spoonitnow
Old 12-12-2009, 07:18 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Rule # 1: don't ask questions

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inV1NCEble
Old 12-12-2009, 04:18 PM #14 (permalink)  
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I would say his range is mostly 44,55,88,99-JJ some 2pair junk and normaly alot of suited spades, but since littleorge says villain is super passive postflop I would discard alot of the semi-bluffing hands and if he isn't overplaying those their isn't mutch we win from right?

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littleogre
Old 12-13-2009, 10:09 AM #15 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 one more read i played like 5 rotations at that table and that was the first and only time i ever say villain lead out after the flop.
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microgrinder
Old 12-15-2009, 06:19 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by inV1NCEble
I would say his range is mostly 44,55,88,99-JJ some 2pair junk
Board: 4s 5s 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.281% 52.63% 00.65% 118794 1473.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 46.719% 46.07% 00.65% 103980 1473.00 { JJ-88, 55-44, 85s, 54s, 54o }

Not that I think that's his range...

I snap AI, make a note if he shows up here with 2 pair or better, and watch his future bets to get a better read.
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