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I am I being stalked?

  
 
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r8ed
Old 02-18-2005, 02:34 PM     Post subject: I am I being stalked? #1 (permalink)  
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Posts: 1,524
r8ed
My wife uses my account and well...she's major fish. And when I first started playing online in January, I was a fish too. I have improved since then, my wife hasn't. But over the past couple weeks or so, I noticed this guy appearing at our table very often. Last night, I finally realized that he was following me because he knew I (my wife) is a fish. He arrived at the table right before this hand and left right after.

Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 3: Smoky428 ( $33.3 )
Seat 5: iluson2 ( $19.55 )
Seat 6: Brasco71 ( $78.95 )
Seat 7: adanakoo ( $40.1 )
Seat 9: stumblebum96 ( $83.7 )
Seat 8: ME ( $22.25 )
Seat 2: jcaboman ( $26.6 )
Seat 1: noddyslade ( $80.4 )
Seat 10: STALKER ( $25 )
Smoky428 posts small blind [$0.25].
iluson2 posts big blind [$0.5].
STALKER posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ME [ 4d 4h ]
Brasco71 calls [$0.5].
adanakoo folds.
ME calls [$0.5].
stumblebum96 folds.
STALKER checks.
noddyslade folds.
Smoky428 calls [$0.25].
iluson2 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, Kd, 4c ]
Smoky428 checks.
iluson2 has been reconnected and has 20 seconds to act.
iluson2 checks.
Brasco71 checks.
ME bets [$2].
STALKER raises [$6].
Smoky428 folds.
iluson2 folds.
Brasco71 folds.
ME is all-In [$19.75]
STALKER calls [$15.75].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]
** Dealing River ** [ As ]
STALKER shows [ 3h, 5s ] a straight, ace to five.
ME shows [ 4d, 4h ] a full house, Fours full of twos.
ME wins $43.7 from the main pot with a full house, Fours full of twos.

He did pull out a straight, but I made his pot odds unfavorable by putting him all in, so it wasn't a good call on his part. Luckily another pair joined my trips.

I just searched through my hand histories and found he joined a table I was at, after me, 3 times in the past couple weeks. May not seem high, but those are just the times that I was on while he was on. And he probably doesn' t search for me while he's already at a table. I'm going to search for him for now on.
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dalecooper
Old 02-18-2005, 02:41 PM #2 (permalink)  
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- Depending where you play, you can hide yourself from search.
- Looks to me like this guy's as much of a fish as he thinks you are. All in with an 8 out draw? Excruciating.
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Tottenham
Old 02-18-2005, 03:27 PM #3 (permalink)  

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Posts: 18
Tottenham
still getting used to calculating odds (especially on the fly at the table). Let me see if I can get this right.

The opponent had approx 2:1 pot odds versus approx 3:1 hand odds.

Is this is terrible call to make everytime? It's pretty close.....

Are my calculations even correct?
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JeffreyGB
Old 02-18-2005, 03:45 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I wouldn't say 2:1 to 3:1 is that close really, especially for an all-in bet (no implied odds if you do hit). Look at it this way:

The bet is $5 into a $10 pot. You will make it 1 time for every 3 that you lose it. So out of 4 plays, on average, you will bet $20 here. You'll lose $15 and profit by only $10 when you hit. You just netted a loss of $5.

Apply this same concept to an average over 40 or 400 plays (humans are creatures of habit and if we can justify doing something once we'll keep it up until we specifically decide to change it). Net loss of $50 or $500. I'd call that bad.

- Jeffrey
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Tottenham
Old 02-18-2005, 04:11 PM #5 (permalink)  

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Tottenham
That's a good point about the implied odds. Wasnt even thinking that.

Thanks for the great answer!

Edit: Was I even right on the hand odds?

I calculate it as $30.25 in the pot, $15.75 to the opponent to call.

Makes about 2:1 pot odds. Needs to win 1 out of 3 hands to break-even.

He has 8 outs * 4 = 32% chance to make his hand by the river.
32% is equal to 3:1 hand odds, or 2:1 ??

(100/32) - 1 = 2.125

I think Ive confused myself now.....
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r8ed
Old 02-18-2005, 06:05 PM #6 (permalink)  
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r8ed
I think I want him and others to find me if they think I'm a fish. Sometimes people overreact when they think somebody is a fish. They assume the fish never has a real hand. Even fish get AA.
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dalecooper
Old 02-18-2005, 06:46 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by r8ed
I think I want him and others to find me if they think I'm a fish. Sometimes people overreact when they think somebody is a fish. They assume the fish never has a real hand. Even fish get AA.
A lot of otherwise decent players (although never the really good ones) disrespect fish too much. They assume just because they have more skill than the fish, that they deserve to win every hand that they get into with them. It doesn't even cross their mind that the same cards are dealt to all.
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JeffreyGB
Old 02-18-2005, 07:01 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tottenham
That's a good point about the implied odds. Wasnt even thinking that.

Thanks for the great answer!

Edit: Was I even right on the hand odds?

I calculate it as $30.25 in the pot, $15.75 to the opponent to call.

Makes about 2:1 pot odds. Needs to win 1 out of 3 hands to break-even.

He has 8 outs * 4 = 32% chance to make his hand by the river.
32% is equal to 3:1 hand odds, or 2:1 ??

(100/32) - 1 = 2.125

I think Ive confused myself now.....
You're actually doing this right, I think. So the pot odds were fairly close after all - 2.125:1 (I actually figure this as 2.17:1...probably variation due to rounding) vs. 1.92:1. Not a horrible call, especially since he figured the opponent for a fish. Still, I have a hard time calling an all-in here. I'd rather bide my time and go with a hand I have the advantage, or one where have significantly better than break-even odds (i.e. a flush draw plus at least a gutshot).

Technically (especially since we know what red had), you'd want to buffer the odds for the odds of your opponent making an even better hand even if you get your draw [as actually happened]. Since we know what he had, we know that any 2, 4, or K will beat the straight if it comes in. That gives 6 outs allowing the straight to come and him to still lose. 3.15:1 for this to happen = the boat/quads will come 1/4.15 = 24.1% of the time. This combined with the 2.17:1 = 1/3.17 = 31.5% of the time the straight will come. Since 1/4 of the time hero's hand improves to beat the a straight, 1/4 of the time that the straight comes, it will still lose. Thus .351*.241 = 0.076. So the straight will lose 7.6% of the time that it comes. Thus the straight will actually only win 35.1 - 7.6 = 27.5% of the time. Giving actual pot odds of (100/27.5) -1 = 2.64:1. Clearly this is not profitable in a 1.9:1 situation.

- Jeffrey
I run a training site...

Check out strategy videos at GrinderSchool.com, from $10 / month.
 
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Tottenham
Old 02-18-2005, 07:25 PM #9 (permalink)  

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Tottenham
My line of thinking was just based on what the opponent knew prior to calling the all-in bet.

His 8 outs consisted of Aces and sixes. Would any of these outs be expected to improve Hero's hand at the time of the call? If not, would my calculations on hand odds remain the same at 32% or approx 2.8 to 1?
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JeffreyGB
Old 02-18-2005, 09:14 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tottenham
My line of thinking was just based on what the opponent knew prior to calling the all-in bet.

His 8 outs consisted of Aces and sixes. Would any of these outs be expected to improve Hero's hand at the time of the call? If not, would my calculations on hand odds remain the same at 32% or approx 2.8 to 1?
Your line of thinking is exactly as it should be. I was just pointing out that he actually had a worse chance than even that predicts. Either way, he shouldn't have called, though the decision is closer.

- Jeffrey
I run a training site...

Check out strategy videos at GrinderSchool.com, from $10 / month.
 
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