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jon6784
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02-24-2005, 04:30 AM
Post subject: Hypothetical AA Question
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 11
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Say you only played AA, folded every hand and only waited on AA. Could you make a profit albeit have a very boring time playing, but would that even be profitable?
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Autocratic
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 70
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No.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Nope, you wouldn't get action and you'd lose to the blinds.
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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you could play for 4-5 hours and maybe see 1 AA.... maybe 2 if you're lucky.
edit, and yes you *could* make profit if say a maniac landed an AK or KK type hand, but other than that, you'll barely beat the rake.
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lolzzz_321
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NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
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Agr33t. That's not even playing poker any ways.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Even if you could make a profit that way, why would you want to? There are about a dozen other hands you could be playing that are also profitable.
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Pyroxene
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02-24-2005, 01:49 PM
Post subject: Re: Hypothetical AA Question
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#7 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 236
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jon6784
Say you only played AA, folded every hand and only waited on AA. Could you make a profit albeit have a very boring time playing, but would that even be profitable?
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You will get AA one time out of every 221 hands averaged over the long haul. At a ten man table, you will go for 22 trips around the table for every AA you get. So you will pay BB + SB (0.5BB) 22 times for each AA. That is 33BB. So you would have to win 33 times the big blind, on average, to break even. Let's say you manage to play AA such that you always issolate one opponent. Your AA will win roughly 85% of the time. The other 15% you actually lose your bet. So ...
0.85 * bet - 0.15 * bet = 33 big blinds.
therefore
0.70 * bet = 33 big blinds
bet = roughly 47 big blinds.
So, everytime you get AA, you would need to have one player call enough bets to cover the 47 big blinds you would put into the pot. And that would just break you even. So, MAYBE, at the fishiest of .01/.02 tables where people will call enormous pot overbets you could make money at it. But at a normal table . . .
Look at it from your opponent's point of view. You have been at a table (0.5/1 NL) for 4 hours. An ultra-tight opponent across the table has not put a single dime into the pot for 4 hours. You get dealt JJ and are thinking about how much to raise when the ultra tight opponent drops 47 dollars into the pot. Would you call that bet?
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Pyroxene
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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i agree with everything everyone said, EXCEPT the idea that you will get no action playing only aces.
at low limit, that is just plain bollocks.
nobody gives credit to anybody at low limit. they will cold call a pre-flop cap with T6o. I'VE SEEN IT.
plus if you seriously sat through 22 orbits, by the time you got your aces again, everyone who saw you play them the first time will be gone and replaced by new players.
ChezJ
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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yes you can make money doing it not on PP tho the blinds are too high
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Why would the blinds on PP be too much? They're the same as everywhere else; the only difference is the max buy in.
and at 50x the BB, if you absolutely, positively WANTED to just play AA, then that would still allow you to break even, assuming you made the 33x BB every time you hit it.
Now, this begs the question, what if you only played AA or KK? Then would it be profitable? since you'll win a majority of hte time with KK as well, you'd see these hands more often than simply AA.
Just a thought. :P I'd be bored silly if I ever tried this.
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