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Tyshalle
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03-25-2009, 07:28 PM
Post subject: How often does AK go up against QQ?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 40
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So it's kind of odd, but it seems to me like AK goes up against QQ a whole hell of a lot. I'm not one of the "Full Tilt is rigged omg" players, but I'm trying to get a feel for about how often this should happen. Because it seems to me that about a third of the time in a full ring game that I get dealt AK somebody else has QQ, and vice versa it seems like about a fifth of the time I get dealt QQ, somebody else has AK.
Does anyone else run into this situation frequently? I seem to run into it at least twice a day over a 6 hour session or so online. And if you run into a situation like this where you raise, get re-raised, re-raise them back and they push, do you normally dump your AK? Or if you raise somebody else's raise in position and then they push?
If you raise, and they re-raise is it ever smart to push, or at this point should you just call and look to see a flop, and then if they raise heavily or push trash it?
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2ndline.4thstreet
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 120
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I really doubt this situation is rigged.
As for dumping AK or QQ - it depends on the player, chip stacks, and my position at the table. There are a lot of instances that I'm folding AK and QQ but then there are other times that I'm shoving as well.
I'll shove a re-raise pf if I have position and the chip stacks are right. If its a super tight player I might think about folding QQ however.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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50/50, it either happens or it doesn't
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LawDude
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03-25-2009, 07:41 PM
Post subject: Re: How often does AK go up against QQ?
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#4 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tyshalle
So it's kind of odd, but it seems to me like AK goes up against QQ a whole hell of a lot. I'm not one of the "Full Tilt is rigged omg" players, but I'm trying to get a feel for about how often this should happen. Because it seems to me that about a third of the time in a full ring game that I get dealt AK somebody else has QQ, and vice versa it seems like about a fifth of the time I get dealt QQ, somebody else has AK.
Does anyone else run into this situation frequently? I seem to run into it at least twice a day over a 6 hour session or so online. And if you run into a situation like this where you raise, get re-raised, re-raise them back and they push, do you normally dump your AK? Or if you raise somebody else's raise in position and then they push?
If you raise, and they re-raise is it ever smart to push, or at this point should you just call and look to see a flop, and then if they raise heavily or push trash it?
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It's about 1 in 17 that any player will have any pocket pair. That means, on average, in a full ring game, about 1 out of every 2 hands someone's going to be dealt one. So if you have AK, there's a 50-50 chance that someone is going to have SOME pocket pair out there (which, obviously, would beat you heads up if played to the river unless you catch cards).
But 2/3 of those pocket pairs are going to be, say, 99-22. The other 1/3 are going to be high pocket pairs, TT-AA. So, as general guidance, I'd say about one time out of 6 your AK is going to be up against someone's high pocket pair. The specific odds for queens are going to be about 1 in 24 hands in which you have AK. But that doesn't mean you won't sometimes see a run of them due to random variance. (Just as one sometimes sees a run of hands where one draws pocket queens and has an ace or king, or both, hit the flop!)
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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I read this and something occured to me I wanted to run by everyone else:
Hands people will almost always push with QQ+, AKo/s
If you have KK+ then there is less of a chance someone else holds AK (and vice/versa). Since people can sometimes fold JJ- you are more likley to see a push with QQ vs AK.
Does this hold water to anyone else?
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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nothing is rigged on stars/tilt
i dont like getting it any with AK because at the microstakes the get-it-in-preflop range is usually QQ+. but the times when i do get it in with AK (against a button TAGG) theres a lot more types of hands than QQ
you probably are just forgetting about the times when its not QQ and then selectively remembering every time its QQ
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Tyshalle
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 40
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I don't think it's rigged, I thought my disclaimer made that clear. I guess I'm just trying to figure out if this really does happen all the time according to probability or if I'm just imagining the frequency at which it happens.
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tyshalle
I don't think it's rigged, I thought my disclaimer made that clear. I guess I'm just trying to figure out if this really does happen all the time according to probability or if I'm just imagining the frequency at which it happens.
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You realize asking that and asking if its rigged is basically the same thing????
I mean, whether or not you know how often It should happen according to probability, it is either happening that often(large sample size of course) or rigged.
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Tyshalle
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 40
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And yeah lockpull, that's what I think is happening. There's a lot of times when I've got AK and everyone folds to my standard 4xBB bet, but it seems like almost every time somebody pushes back hard they've got queens. In fact, on two separate occasions now I've said in the chat something like "You've got queens, don't you?" before pushing and they've folded, then called me Daniel Negreanu. I don't take it as a compliment, because I've run into this scenario so many times that it just seems obvious to me that that's what they've got.
It might just be a product of the microstakes. In another thread somebody busted my chops for claiming that I had such a good read on somebody as to put them on queens and only queens, when really it was just a product of this particular scenario which it feels like I see at least two or three times a day.
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Tyshalle
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 40
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
You realize asking that and asking if its rigged is basically the same thing????
I mean, whether or not you know how often It should happen according to probability, it is either happening that often(large sample size of course) or rigged.
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No, that's not what's happening at all. I'm not "asking" if it's rigged. I'm asking if I'm just imagining the frequency at which it happens or if statistically it is happening as often as I think it does. I'm implying that there's a good chance that I'm just remembering all the times that AK goes up against QQ but forgetting all the times AK goes up against, well, every other hand.
So no, it's not "either happening that often or it's rigged."
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tyshalle
In another thread somebody busted my chops for claiming that I had such a good read on somebody as to put them on queens and only queens, when really it was just a product of this particular scenario which it feels like I see at least two or three times a day.
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lol.... you know I know this right?
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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OK. Heres another answer for you.
If villains calling range is QQ+,AK and you hold AK, then villains range is 28.57% QQ. Something to notice: AK is more likely in that range: 42.86%.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
OK. Heres another answer for you.
If villains calling range is QQ+,AK and you hold AK, then villains range is 28.57% QQ. Something to notice: AK is more likely in that range: 42.86%.
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So this means if you hold AK, there is still a better chance of villian holding AK as well vs them having QQ because they still have 9 ways to make AK and only 6 to make QQ? Do you know where l would find the formula to figure out things this? (or does pokerstove have this ability and I am not using it right)
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lockpull
Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
OK. Heres another answer for you.
If villains calling range is QQ+,AK and you hold AK, then villains range is 28.57% QQ. Something to notice: AK is more likely in that range: 42.86%.
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So this means if you hold AK, there is still a better chance of villian holding AK as well vs them having QQ because they still have 9 ways to make AK and only 6 to make QQ? Do you know where l would find the formula to figure out things this? (or does pokerstove have this ability and I am not using it right) |
You don't need pokerstove. The math is simple.
For a pocket pair (we'll call it XX), the number of X cards left in the deck will be nX. In that case, the frequency is:
nX * (nX-1)
For a non pocket pair (we'll call it YZ), the frequency is:
nY * nZ
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
Quote:
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Originally Posted by lockpull
Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
OK. Heres another answer for you.
If villains calling range is QQ+,AK and you hold AK, then villains range is 28.57% QQ. Something to notice: AK is more likely in that range: 42.86%.
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So this means if you hold AK, there is still a better chance of villian holding AK as well vs them having QQ because they still have 9 ways to make AK and only 6 to make QQ? Do you know where l would find the formula to figure out things this? (or does pokerstove have this ability and I am not using it right) |
You don't need pokerstove. The math is simple.
For a pocket pair (we'll call it XX), the number of X cards left in the deck will be nX. In that case, the frequency is:
nX * (nX-1)
For a non pocket pair (we'll call it YZ), the frequency is:
nY * nZ |
See, this is where I get confused because in the case where I hold AK and villian calls QQ+,AK that math works out like this:
AA- 3*2=6
KK- 3*2=6
QQ-4*3=12
AK- 3*3=9
So by that QQ has a better frequency than the rest. But in settecba's post, villian is more often going to show up with AK here. I am sure I am missing something easy here but not sure what.
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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Lockpull:
I dont know if youve read this already or not, but these spoon´s threads are very helpful:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...tc-t75711.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...rs-t80281.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ng-t67000.html
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
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Thanks. This looks like it will keep me busy for quite awhile. I guess I won't be bothering you any time real soon..... but don't get too comfortable. 
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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Holding AK the "chart" is like this one:
QQ 6
KK 3 (we hold one blocker)
AA 3 (we hold one blocker)
AK 9 (we hold 2 blockers, 9 combinations comes from (4-1)*(4-1))
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
Holding AK the "chart" is like this one:
QQ 6
KK 3 (we hold one blocker)
AA 3 (we hold one blocker)
AK 9 (we hold 2 blockers, 9 combinations comes from (4-1)*(4-1))
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aha..... 6+3+3+9=21 possible combinations
6/21=28.57
3/21=14.28
9/21=42.86
I guess I was misunderstanding the Nx*(Nx-1) because I was seeing 4 queens * 3 queens.
TY (told you not too get too comfortable)
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lockpull
Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
Holding AK the "chart" is like this one:
QQ 6
KK 3 (we hold one blocker)
AA 3 (we hold one blocker)
AK 9 (we hold 2 blockers, 9 combinations comes from (4-1)*(4-1))
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aha..... 6+3+3+9=21 possible combinations
6/21=28.57
3/21=14.28
9/21=42.86
I guess I was misunderstanding the Nx*(Nx-1) because I was seeing 4 queens * 3 queens.
TY (told you not too get too comfortable) |
That's because I mistyped it. It's (nX-1)*(nX-2).
My bad.
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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It's just good to know I am not totally crazy. Thanks Law.
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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helpme2win$
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Two Pair
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 42
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before you go reraising and push in with ak isnt it better to see a flop and decide from there i know in a ring game is a good hand but if your being pushed and reraised its a fold imo. but for me i lose with pocket kings 70%of the time and i wont say what site ft.
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kevin2311
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 19
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i wouldnt worry how often they go against each other id worry about what hand i had. id take ak over pocket qq anyday
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JR9477
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Iowa
Posts: 426
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The formula is...
nX * (nX - 1) / 2 = Pocket Pair combinations.
You divide it by 2 because AsAd and AdAs is really the same hand/combination.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kevin2311
i wouldnt worry how often they go against each other id worry about what hand i had. id take ak over pocket qq anyday
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I'll take QQ.
Hand 0: 53.951% 53.73% 00.22% 22082460 89058.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 46.049% 45.83% 00.22% 18834720 89058.00 { AKs }
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kevin2311
i wouldnt worry how often they go against each other id worry about what hand i had. id take ak over pocket qq anyday
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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.056% 55.84% 00.21% 91796496 349212.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 43.944% 43.73% 00.21% 71886264 349212.00 { AKs, AKo }
hmmm
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