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how much Variance

  
 
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Iconoclastic
Old 08-08-2005, 11:14 PM     Post subject: how much Variance #1 (permalink)  
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How many hands of poker do I need to play before my win rate has a 100%, 98.6%, or 95% chance of being my true win rate?

Any response or link in a similar vein would be appreciated.
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journey075
Old 08-09-2005, 12:23 AM #2 (permalink)  
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50k at one limit should be enough.

i think the best person to ask would be cocco_bill though. i believe he has more logged hands than anybody else.
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SinkRox
Old 08-09-2005, 12:41 AM #3 (permalink)  
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the thing is your game is evolving the whole time, but id imagine if your winning after 20k hands then your game is goot. 50-100k would give a very reliable reading.
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BobbySalami
Old 08-09-2005, 02:59 AM #4 (permalink)  
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They would all have to be at the same limit to find your win rate for that limit....too much comes into play when combining multiple limits.....

I could get out the ol' statistics book and actually solve the problem, but I dont really feel like it so I will answer with a "shit load".
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Old 08-09-2005, 03:12 AM #5 (permalink)  
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You can't use any statistic formula... playing tight aggressive will require less hands to show the true value than loose aggressive since laggy play also creates lots of streaks where you get hands and people don't believe you
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