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How much to raise the flop?

  
 
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EricE
Old 07-01-2005, 06:22 PM     Post subject: How much to raise the flop? #1 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
EricE
My analysis of this hand is that I needed to hit the flop hard to kill the chaser. The reason I didn't is that my hands had not been getting paid off and I was worried everyone would fold leaving me just the measly preflop bets. Still, that is the only option I see here. Comments?

My call on the turn is based on the fact that I have 8 outs to improve. Sound call on the turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) converter
CO ($4.17)
Button ($5.48)
SB ($1.57)
BB ($14.81)
UTG ($12.15)
UTG+1 ($2.10)
MP1 ($2.60)
Hero ($4.91)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Qh, Js.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.04, 1 fold, Button calls $0.04, SB calls $0.03, BB calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02.

Flop: ($0.20) 8c, Qd, Qc (5 players)
SB bets $0.14, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $0.14, Button calls $0.14.

Turn: ($0.62) 5c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.3, Button raises to $0.6, SB folds, Hero calls $0.30.

River: ($1.82) 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.82, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $3.64

Button doesn't show.
Outcome: Button wins $3.64.
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EricE
Old 07-01-2005, 06:52 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Posts: 894
EricE
Here is another that happened last night. grrr.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) converter

CO ($5.05)
Button ($1.15)
SB ($4.74)
BB ($1.78)
UTG ($20.80)
UTG+1 ($1.90)
MP1 ($6.22)
Hero ($3.21)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Kh, Ac.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, SB calls $0.07, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.06.

Flop: ($0.26) 4s, Qs, Ks (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.15, SB calls $0.15, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($0.56) As (2 players)
SB bets $0.1, Hero calls $0.10.

River: ($0.76) 8s (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $0.76

Hero has Kh Ac (flush, ace high).
SB has Ts Ah (flush, ace high).
Outcome: SB wins $0.76.
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MNMP2
Old 07-01-2005, 07:00 PM #3 (permalink)  
Straight

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 156
MNMP2
Here's my 2 cents for whats it worth.

I would have re-raised that flop for sure. Its not likely that you are going to be up against AQ, because no one raised preflop, and with AQ at this limit, someone would have raised with that hand. I would be thinking that the only possibility is that the small blind has Qx, has an 8, or is bluffing. You would win the preflop bets PLUS his .14, and thats not bad for the hand you hold in my opinion. You should be raising that flop.

I have been taught that in microlimit, when someone bets out on a flush board like that, they have it. It's the same when an A hits the board. They have it. You either push these draws out on the flop, or you fold when the board coordinates and someone bets at it like that.

As Aokrongly told me - call, call, BET. Does he have it? YES HE DOES!
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MNMP2
Old 07-01-2005, 07:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 156
MNMP2
Second hand is same thing - call, call, BET.

He has it.

Nothing you can do about it, except bet bigger on the flop and hope to push him off. Otherwise, I fold to the bet when the board and his bet scream flush (or straight, or A, or whatever players are chasing at these levels).

This is why you can make a ton when you have the full house, or trips to someone's paired up A. I've made the most money when I have 55, hit a 5 on the flop, wait till and A or K hits that board, (both is eeven better)=$$$.

I have learned not to let hands like the ones you have posted get to me. It happens all the time. All you can do is bet bigger, especially on the flop, and then collect the 2 out of 3 times that the chaser doesnt hit his card. Thats all you can do.
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EricE
Old 07-01-2005, 07:23 PM #5 (permalink)  
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EricE
Sure, but how much to bet on the flop? Killing pot odds isn’t enough due to implied odds. Take the first one, pot is $.20 but a flush here could be expected to pull in anywhere from 1-4$ due to people being stupid enough to call. So throwing out a $.20 bet may not do it. Oh well, maybe that is still the best option?
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Xanadu
Old 07-01-2005, 07:34 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Xanadu
Go all in first hand. If the draw calls you, you are 6-4 to win(actually better because you are better than 10% to fill up or quad). A lot of people will call an all-in with a flush draw at those stakes. Get all your money in when you know you have the edge. As for your call on the turn, he probably has it, but if both your stacks are big enough, you have 4 outs to fill up, so you can probably call if taking his stack gives enough return(you will almost definitely take his stack if you hit). Second hand, you only have 4 outs, but you will take his stack if you hit, so the turn call is fine.
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MNMP2
Old 07-01-2005, 07:47 PM #7 (permalink)  
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MNMP2
Xanadu's answer illustrates what I was going to say to the extreme. You have to bet bigger than the pot sometimes when you know a player has a tendency to chase. Just make it expensive. I personally wouldnt go all in, but I would make a big bet there.

On the second hand, I tend to back off when a board shows all one suit like that. I pick a better spot. You have 4 outs, which means roughly a 1 in 10 shot to hit your card and beat the obvious flush. I normally dont play that. Not to say that X's advice is wrong. I just personally dont want to become the chaser there.

I like to train myself to recognize when I'm beat and learn when to lay down a hand. That second hand is a perfect example for me of when I pat myself on the back for laying it down.
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EricE
Old 07-01-2005, 08:00 PM #8 (permalink)  
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EricE
Hmm. So let’s say I have to throw out a $1 bet on the flop. If I expect him to fold then I am risking $1 to win 20 cents…doesn’t make sense. If I am expecting him to call then I am slightly at favor to win if he is only chasing a flush. On the other hand, he may have a set in which case it depends upon my hand. I think I should bet $1 on the first hand and fold the second. Thanks for your help guys.
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MNMP2
Old 07-01-2005, 08:24 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 156
MNMP2
You are actually looking for him to call the overbet. If he folds, then yes, you win a small pot.

You have to look at this from the standpoint of multiple hands. I have a few notes on a few players I regularly see at some tables I play. They will pretty much chase a flush all the way every time. Reason being is they sometimes hit it and get paid off. So if I am playing one of these guys, I will bet big to give them terrible odds at chasing the flush, which they will do anyway. Now - if they hit it, I dont berate them for the suckout. I say NH. Next time the situation comes up, I bet it the same way, and usually win. I will win enough times to make up for the few I lose when they hit their flush. If i change the betting pattern, and lower the bet, then I end up getting paid less, which doesnt allow me to recover the losses from the few times they beat me.

make sense?
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EricE
Old 07-01-2005, 08:33 PM #10 (permalink)  
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EricE
Yes, makes sense. I have read that before but I swear I don't learn anything until I run into the situation and can apply it to a real case. Thanks.
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Miffed22001
Old 07-02-2005, 09:32 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 Yeah, ive got stacks of players labelled 'chaser' Simply put they will chase that flush every time and they will hit it on a few. But if you make it soooo expensive each time to chase and fold if they get that miracle card trust me you will win by next week and the week after. If you have to bet half your stack a few times you will more than double it up and you never know maybe they'll stop chasing but thats unlikely.
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