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ponyboy
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05-24-2006, 01:34 PM
Post subject: How many hands to really see the picture?
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 379
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Just wondering as I move towards my first 1000 hands how many thousands I should play before I really have a good idea of my progress. I see people on here doing their first 10,000 hands, etc. Playing as often as I do (not much) it is hard to get the hand count up significantly.
This week I'm planning on trying two tables to see what happens.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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after about 10-15k hands you will know if you are beating the game or not. you need much more to get any kind of decent estimation of your true winrate.
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givememyleg
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: ISHPERMING MISHIGEN
Posts: 5,040
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1,000,000,000 will tell a pretty good picture.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by givememyleg
1,000,000,000 will tell a pretty good picture.
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bigger sample size please
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Harry
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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A few thousand can show you obvious leaks, related to VP$IP, PFR, etc... but I don't think it can show you much else like leaks related to specific hands or positions until you get a much larger sample size.
This is just my assumption looking at the numbers. Even with a couple thousand hands, certain hands like KQs have only been dealt to me 4 or 5 times.
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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KingLizard
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 296
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Harry
A few thousand can show you obvious leaks, related to VP$IP, PFR, etc... but I don't think it can show you much else like leaks related to specific hands or positions until you get a much larger sample size.
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For me, it was about 5,000 hands and I started to see that Ax where x < 10 was just a constant loser. As a beginner, I was just so damned excited to see that A. It would be bombs away LOL.
At 25,000 hands, I started looking at pocket pairs and sc's.
At 50,000, I still can't figure out position stats clearly but I'm working on it.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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ponyboy your best bet is to analyse your hand histories and post and discuss hands since it takes a very large number of hands to get a good picture
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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I can get a good idea of how somebody plays after watching them for a few hands.
Determining a 'true' win rate for a particular player with a relatively high degree of accuracy(of course ignoring subtle changes to their game, and the players they are playing) probably takes a million hands.
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