|
Nakamura
|
07-23-2009, 10:30 PM
Post subject: How many is enough?
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Grindin'
Posts: 1,515
|
|
How many hands is enough to determine if you are beating a particular level? I have 10K hands now at 10NL FR, but my graph looks filled with variance. I had a decent start, but then I ran into a dry spell of cards and an even worse period of getting stacked by sets and oversets.
I'm a tourney-convert, so I'm way over-rolled for 10NL and eager to move up to 25NL. I told myself I'd first get to 10K of hands and see how things were going before assessing whether or not to level up. Now I just feel confused. Any thoughts?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
JKDS
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
|
|
Well, you're certainly beating 10nl. However I think its a huge mistake to attribute that 5k hand stretch as variance. Obv set over set and such are going to happen, but it seems that the beginning of that stretch is just downhill the whole time which is kind of funky. imo figure it out now before going to 25nl.
Since you have the bankroll though, and some experience now, its not really bad to just go on anyway. Just set a stop loss.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Do you feel you're outplaying your opponents? Do you see when they're playing in a way that's worse than what you would do?
|
|
|
|
bjsaust
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
|
|
If I feel comfortable and I'm up I consider myself beating the level. Be self aware and consider whether you're just running hot though.
|
|
Just playing to improve.
|
|
spoonitnow
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
|
|
Quote:
|
How many hands is enough to determine if you are beating a particular level?
|
You can never be 100% sure that you're beating a particular level. However, with your win-rate and standard deviation over a sample, you can see what the chance is that you're a winning player using some good ole statistics.
I would suggest that you go ahead and move up.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
|
|
|
Roco415
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 548
|
|
only up 7 buy ins over 10k hands? is that normal or a good amount to be up over 10 k hands? i have no idea, seems low to consider yourself dominating the level...idk though i play more tourneeis than cash
|
|
Roco415.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Roco415
only up 7 buy ins over 10k hands? is that normal or a good amount to be up over 10 k hands? i have no idea, seems low to consider yourself dominating the level...idk though i play more tourneeis than cash
|
I'd say you shouldn't expect anything over 10 buyins over 10K hands unless you're playing 2NL or you are a huge winner at $100+ buyin SNGs
|
|
|
|
Micro2Macro
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
|
|
10k hands is not a very clear sample, especially when trying to determine win rates.
|
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
10k hands is not a very clear sample, especially when trying to determine win rates.
|
that's why you should ask yourself whether it should usually go like the beginning/end parts of the graph or like the middle
When you lose, are you running into the top parts of people's ranges, getting coolered, or are you just playing like crap?
|
|
|
|
bjsaust
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
|
|
Long term a buyin per 1k hands is running very well, so 7 buyins over 10k hands is pretty decent. 10k really isnt enough to accurately measure a bb/100 winrate, but its enough to know how you feel and see some results to judge by.
|
|
Just playing to improve.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by bjsaust
Long term a buyin per 1k hands is running very well
|
Running well long term? Does that even exist? If so, I want it.
|
|
|
|
Nakamura
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Grindin'
Posts: 1,515
|
|
Thanks for the comments. The middle section worries me a bit, although I wouldn't have considered my play nasty spewage, just opponents with cards at the top of their ranges'. I might try seeding in some 25NL to get some confidence before I move up completely.
|
|
|
|
Roco415
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 548
|
|
is it possible when they were at top of their ranges....you misjudged their ranges? maybe you should post a couple of those hands just as self check and 2nd opinion to make certain.
again, it sounds like im being debbie downer here but just trying to cover all bases haha
|
|
Roco415.
|
|
Kijjo
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Alabama
Posts: 554
|
|
Nak, you ever watch youself play hands with a replayer? If your software has it, try to filter hands from that stretch where you lost over a certain amount (let's say $2 or something) and watch 'em all. Might be a waste of time, but might give you a different perspective. I did a study on a bad stretch a while back and realized I was overplaying particular hands like AJ, AQ. Wouldn't have realized it without seeing it all put together like that.
On the move up, I say go. The move to 25NL did not seem particularly big to me. I'm sure you'll be fine.
|
|
Donk Skills:
#1 The bluff call
#2 The Drawing-Dead Value Bet
__________________________________________________ _____________
"What we do in life echoes in eternity."
Maximus Decimus Meridius - Gladiator
|
|
|
|
|
|
10NL to 25NL is the largest jump other than 50NL to 100NL imo because 10NL plays somewhat like 2 or 5 NL while at 25NL you play against some people who know what they're doing
it's also 2.5x in stakes
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
