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Fedora
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09-01-2009, 05:03 PM
Post subject: How long do bad runs go for????
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 91
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So I was a break even player at $10nl. I posted my 10k hand review, took all the great advice, and i started winning.
I swear I didn't change anything, and during the last 3 days, played around 3000 hands, i've been getting the coldest run of cards ever. I'm down about 4 buyins during the 3 days.
I thought it might be something wrong with my game again, so I went through checking my history. And when I replayed the big hands, I wouldn't play them any other way, i made all +EV decisions.
I know people are probably gonna say that I've had way worse runs, but is this normal? A 4 buyin swing at $10nl?
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nish81
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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-4 BI is standard. I just had a -4 BI swing at 2nl, so i'd expect it to be common at every level.
To answer your topic question in a way, at any point in time you have an equal chance of 'breaking out'. That is to say, the amount of money you've won/lost in the past doesnt affect what you'll win/lose in the future. thinking to the contrary is known as gamblers fallacy i think
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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If you're making +EV plays and losing, you win. It sounds weird but it's true. I don't really get pissed anymore when I get sucked out on. I just make a note and laugh because I know I'll get it back and more at some point. Until you can get to this point, meaning not tilting and making bad decisions to increase the longevity of the downswing, you can always tighten up a little bit in the meantime to get your confidence and mindset back up.
A 4 BI downswing is standard. I lose that in a session only to make 7 BI by the time I log off ending +3 BI for the day.
My worst downswing at 10nl was ~13 buyins. I was tilting and playing absolutely awful.
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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I've had 4 buy-in swings in 5 minutes
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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I used to be saddened after -4 buyin downswings. That is until you realize that it is going to happen over and over and over again, no matter how good you are. Losing 4 buyins is going to hapen in a matter of a single session at times (unless you put a stoploss). Yes, it's super standard. But that doesn't mean that you did nothing wrong. If you didn't play the hand perfectly, then you made a mistake, and therefore didn't win/lose the max/min. So you still need to improve upon that.
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surviva316
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09-01-2009, 06:03 PM
Post subject: Re: How long do bad runs go for????
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#6 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fedora
How long do bad runs go for {a million question marks}
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til you stop suckin', ldo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
I've had 4 buy-in swings in 5 minutes
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This
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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The reality is-- and this is hard for a poker player to accept-- that it is entirely possible for a good player's "bad run" to go on for any duration. It isn't likely, but it is possible. Just as it is possible to roll an unloaded die and for it to come up 6 some obscene number of times in a row. You just have to keep playing sound poker, no matter how bad the variance.
BUT, the flip side of this is that statistically, the longer a bad run goes on, the less likely it is actually due to variance. So during ANY bad run, you should be marking and saving notable hand histories (for internet players) or making a mental note of hands where you lost significant money (for live players) and replaying those hands in your mind and asking yourself if there were things you could have done differently. Maybe it is still variance, but you need to satisfy yourself of that fact or plug any leaks you discover.
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Fedora
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 91
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Thanks guys, I did go through my hand histories and I used poker stove, and I Was always either heavily favorted or slightly the underdog, like over pair against straight and flush draw.
So I kept on playing, played around 2500 hands today.
My swings are coming back, my bad run kept on going until I was down about 8 buyins today, but then I started hitting sets, hitting my AKs, and I ended up swinging to just down 2 and a half buyins. ( Actually almost broke even because I unlocked another $20 bonus)
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
I've had 4 buy-in swings in 5 minutes
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This |
+2
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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I have monthly 10BI downswings and I don't consider them downswings, I just consider them "that time of the month" and just a long breakeven stretch
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Sam62
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Minnesota
Posts: 56
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500 Hands today and had a 2BI downswing and pulled it out to finish up $0.30. I consider that a good night since I dug myself out 
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salempc
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 21
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I have recently lost a whole lot of money due to tilting.
I went down to play 6-max 2NL 1 table. It's slow but I'm winning back.
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^
Good god make a deposit for the love of mike.
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JustinSKS
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 115
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Nutty, I built my bankroll from 1 dollar. I am playing 5nl with 205 dollars behind me.
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I fold AA preflop.
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Keith
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JustinSKS
Nutty, I built my bankroll from 1 dollar. I am playing 5nl with 205 dollars behind me.
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Not sure "built" is exactly the correct term here when the majority of it came from one tournament that you werent rolled for. I fully accept you built the rest of the bankroll but you were gambling and got lucky , many others have gambled and bust in similar circumstances.
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Donkafelts
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 115
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Started with $0 currently 5nl 195 behind
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Dizza
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 7
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Started with $1 jumped to $450 in 1 day and lost everything in 1hand bluffing with 7-2
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dizza
Started with $1 jumped to $450 in 1 day and lost everything in 1hand bluffing with 7-2 |
SICK STORY BRAH and lol @ this thread. Why post without looking for anything about a question thats probably asked every other week?
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TonyB73
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 414
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
I've had 4 buy-in swings in 5 minutes
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This |
+2 |
+3
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Sl4y3r
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 59
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Im with Iopq, -4BI isnt a downswing... this varience is super standard. Justdont dont let it tilt you and youll be back in no time! Also like stacks said theres always something we could've done better regardless of the result. Goodluck Fedora
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Carl Trooper
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 10
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some for days others months and years
it sucks
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TonyB73
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 414
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dizza
Started with $1 jumped to $450 in 1 day and lost everything in 1hand bluffing with 7-2 |
Thats what I call quality BR mgt.
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JustinSKS
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 115
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Question about the 7-2bluff. WERE THEY SOOTED?
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I fold AA preflop.
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Define what +ev means to you in cash games.. sounds like a SNG/MTT term to me.
In other words, make sure you are getting the fundamentals right in cash games. Build big pots with a lot of equity, pot control marginal hands, raise/reraise until all in with your strongest hands etc etc etc
Downswings have little to do with a cold run of cards and more to do with little mistakes you are making along the way that really add up.
Keep plugging away and learn to make less mistakes= less variance.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Outlaw
Define what +ev means to you in cash games..
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positive expected value
as in you expect to make money
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