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How to incorporate air into calling all-in?

  
 
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Vinland
Old 09-16-2009, 02:07 PM     Post subject: How to incorporate air into calling all-in? #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain was 48/16/1.6 over small sample but I had watched him play a few hands and had a few reads on him.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Villain (UTG) ($4.54)
UTG+1 ($1.86)
MP1 ($2.30)
MP2 ($6.84)
CO ($7.05)
Button ($2.81)
Hero (SB) ($6.22)
BB ($5.88)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
Villain calls $0.05, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.05, CO calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Villain calls $0.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 3, 4, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, Villain calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.25) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, Villain calls $1.25

I felt given his calling on flop and turn that he had a FD a lot here. The hands I watched him play he usually reraised on flop or turn with TP or 2 pair type hands. Even if he had trip 4's I still think he reraises by the turn although I cant rule it out.

River: ($4.75) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $2.24 (All-In), Hero calls $2.24

I checked river hoping to induce a bet b/c he was spewy and fishy. I am really only worried about trip 4's and TT. I didn't rule either out but was pretty confident that he would have played differently with trips and that he had other cards in his range. I insta called b/c I was very confident that his busted FD range made it a call.

Question is: How do I incorporate this into Pokerstove? Is it as simple as typing in a bunch of suited hands that he would have called preflop with and running the equity?

Open to any other comments.
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Old 09-16-2009, 02:41 PM #2 (permalink)  
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here's how you do it:
put his made hands into pokerstove
get your equity vs. his made hands

if it's enough then it doesn't matter
if it's not enough, then calculate what % of the time he has to be bluffing for you to make money on the call

so say you need 33% equity to make a pot sized call
say pokerstove gives you 20% equity vs. his value range

that means that he has to have his value range 83% of the time and air 17% of the time
.83 * .2 = 0.166 (20% equity vs. value)
.17 * 1 = 0.17 (100% equity vs. air)
total chance of winning the hand is 33.6%

if he bluffs less than 17% we will lose, if he bluffs more we will make money
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Old 09-16-2009, 02:46 PM #3 (permalink)  
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btw if you put your example into pokerstove it's not even close because we have odds to call without him bluffing ever

Board: 3d 4c 4d 6c Th

Hand 0: 27.273% { QdQh }
Hand 1: 72.727% { 66, 33, AcTc, AdTd, A4s, KdTd }

we need 24% to call
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Vinland
Old 09-16-2009, 03:06 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Ahhh, sweet.
Thanks, wasnt sure how to do that.....looks pretty straight forward.
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Stacks
Old 09-16-2009, 03:26 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Stacks will become famous soon enoughStacks will become famous soon enough
 What iopq said. Also bet larger preflop. You are OOP with 3 limpers, they will may more with inferior hands. And bet turn larger. The size you used on the turn made for a nice river pot size to stack size, leaving about a 1/2 PSB. However, on the turn villain will call larger with inferior ranges, thus making a larger mistake, and being more committed on the river.
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Vinland
Old 09-16-2009, 03:36 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I am still confused on one thing;
How do you come up with the calculation to find what the breakeven point on his value range?
In Iopq's example, I had 20% equity but need 33%, how do you quickly find out what percent of the time he needs to have air to make it a call?
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Old 09-16-2009, 03:50 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I just did it the easy way and multiplied .85 (value range) by .2, and .15 is air
that came out to .32 and we needed .33 so I increased air by 2% and got 33.6%

you can do a formula something like (1-air%)*equity + air% = equity we need

so in our example it would be (1-A)*.2 + A = .33
.2 - .2A + A = .33
.8A = .13
A = 16.25% which is more accurate
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Vinland
Old 09-16-2009, 03:55 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Excellent!

I'm putting this into my poker file as we speak...
thx
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