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How do you know?

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  1. #1

    Default How do you know?

    How do you know when your opponents just do not have a hand to call you with? Or you are simply not scaling your bets correctly?

    Table image for myself is: Tight/Aggressive

    Here is a hand: 0.10/0.25NL

    SB ($10.68)
    BB ($21.01)
    UTG ($15.88)
    UTG+1 ($25.00)
    Hero ($14.05)
    UTG+3 ($28.27)
    HJ ($28.14)
    CO ($20.59)
    D ($9.92)

    Hero was dealt Ah/Ad

    Preflop:
    Small Blinds $0.10
    Big Blinds $0.25
    UTG folds
    UTG+1 raises $0.75
    Hero calls $0.75
    UTG+3 folds
    CO calls $0.75
    D calls $0.75
    SB folds
    BB folds

    Flop($3.35) -- Kd/2s/6s
    UTG+1 checks
    Hero bets $2.00
    CO folds
    D folds
    UTG+1 folds

    Hero wins Pot.

    There are other similar hands to this one, where other players call C-Bet and then folds turn Or folds after my C-Bet. My C-Bets are generally 60-70% of pot size, is that the correct amount?

    I've noticed that my sessions are distorted with an asymmetric payoff, where winning pots are much lower than losing pots on an absolute basis. For instance, my last session, I lost an all-in pot with QQ VS AK off (All in preflop & the guy rivered an ace).

    Thanks for the help.
    Last edited by RebornSky; 11-18-2013 at 05:47 PM.
  2. #2
    Why do you flat preflop in the AA hand?

    You end up going 4-way to the flop with a vulnerable one-pair hand. If you get much action and a big pot happens after this, you're often going to lose.

    People can't always have anything to pay you off with.

    Your 60-70% pot sized cbets are fine as a broad guideline, but your bet sizing should vary based on board texture and opponent - because you're varying your bets based on these things (which everyone at the table knows) rather than your hole cards (which only you know) this variation doesn't give away your hand strength.

    If you're winning small pots and losing big ones, if that happens over a statistically significant sample of a whole lot of hands, then it may be that you are not getting away from marginal hands often enough and you're allowing big pots to happen when you are likely behind. It also may mean you're playing your own big hands too slow, not building big enough pots with them because you're afraid to scare everyone else off - although it sucks when people can't pay you off, you just have to accept that will happen most of the time - generally, it's best to just bet anyway and rely on peoples tendency to call too much.
  3. #3
    Sorry, I should have been more clear. The player with the Dealer button was pretty much a loose cannon, so I flat pre-flop hoping he'll 3bet with position. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Wrong thought process? Or should I just 3-bet AA in this situation?

    I think I understand the bet-sizing part, but I am still a little lost on the winning small pots/losing big pots. It's actually quite a small sample size, 3 or so sessions (500 or so hands). I just noticed this trend, so it could be a case of getting unlucky with people calling my hands or my all-ins getting rivered.

    Thank you for the help Boris.
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by RebornSky View Post
    Sorry, I should have been more clear. The player with the Dealer button was pretty much a loose cannon, so I flat pre-flop hoping he'll 3bet with position. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Wrong thought process? Or should I just 3-bet AA in this situation?

    I think I understand the bet-sizing part, but I am still a little lost on the winning small pots/losing big pots. It's actually quite a small sample size, 3 or so sessions (500 or so hands). I just noticed this trend, so it could be a case of getting unlucky with people calling my hands or my all-ins getting rivered.

    Thank you for the help Boris.
    That's just variance. Sometimes what you describe happens. Sometimes, you just rake in big pot after big pot and you don't seem to lose much. 500 is a very very very small sample. Don't draw too much conclusion from it.

    How do you know when someone will call? You can't, at least not 100%. All you can do is get good reads and do the correct plays from your end and it will pay off in the long run.
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by RebornSky View Post
    Sorry, I should have been more clear. The player with the Dealer button was pretty much a loose cannon, so I flat pre-flop hoping he'll 3bet with position. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Wrong thought process? Or should I just 3-bet AA in this situation?
    Yeah, now I posted a hand just like this where someone was 3betting 30% in a certain spot. A much better player than me pointed out that 70% of the time (even if that 30% stat was really correct, based on the sample I had) he won't 3bet and you end up in a tough spot in a multiway pot with a vulnerable overpair - you really don't want to let hands like AA/KK go multi-way, they play much better heads up. I think it's arguable that very occasionally there could be a good spot to flat and hope someone behind 3bets it, but really it's going to be extremely rare that it's correct to do that - there's no need to get fancy, just 3bet your good hands (and a balanced range of bluffs).

    3 or so sessions (500 or so hands)
    Yeah, that's an extremely small sample. Even a few tens of thousands of hands isn't really enough to draw any conclusions from normally - it takes a long time for variance to even out.

    Stick around, post some hands, and I'm sure you'll get some good input. The hand converter at http://www.handhistoryconverter.com/ will convert to the correct format for this forum, or you can output straight from HEM2 if you have that.
  6. #6
    Start here <

    I'm not sure you should be playing 25nl if you aren't understanding concepts like variance.

    I suggest you read some of the articles from the link above about variance and bankroll management. Step down to the lowest level and work your way up through the stakes as you start to beat each stake. Diving in at 25nl is setting money on fire, it's gonna be an expensive poker lesson.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 11-19-2013 at 12:34 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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