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littleogre
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03-31-2010, 11:03 AM
Post subject: how do people with these numbers win?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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As i'm sure you all know micro stakes are full of people with numbers that look like this. 60/3/7. Most of them are way down but some actually win. I assume they are going bat shit when they hit a big hand and making all their money donks who stack off for over 100xbb with tptk.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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sorry guys i totally posted this in the wrong forum. 
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Donachello
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: TROLOLOLOLOL
Posts: 849
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Show me one player who can run 60/3/7 over a sample of 100k hands and still win and I'll show you a super user :P
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[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol
Problem officer...?
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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well that's gonna be kinda hard cause i don't have nearly that many hands on any one person.
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Dex
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Bringing the mind home.
Posts: 172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
well that's gonna be kinda hard cause i don't have nearly that many hands on any one person.
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So to define one of these players with fishy stats as a winner, what kind of sample do you think is suitable?
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dex
So to define one of these players with fishy stats as a winner, what kind of sample do you think is suitable?
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well i think you need even more then 100k hands to be accurate at the same time though i think you can figure out if a person is a donk using a much smaller sample. If villain is 30/5/2 over a 1k sample we may not know his true win rate. We can however deduce that he is a calling station. So yes when i see a person makeing 10bb/100 playing 50/2 it could very well be variance.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,405
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Small sample size, their opponents sucking worse than they do, etc.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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DJJunkPauds
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
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Use PokerTableRatings, or some such for the sample.
I really doubt there are all that many (perhaps none) players who run 60/10 with a sample size big enough to be sure about winrate positivity. I think you'd need a winrate of at least 1BB/100 over half a million hands to be sure beyond a reasonable doubt that such a player is winning. Players who run like that tend to be 1 or 2 tabling for less than a handful of hours a week.
I hear that there are some really solid winning players at mid stakes who run like 35/10/4.0, doing so mainly to exploit HUD using taggs, but 60/10 at microstakes isn't a winning formula.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJJunkPauds
Use PokerTableRatings, or some such for the sample.
I really doubt there are all that many (perhaps none) players who run 60/10 with a sample size big enough to be sure about winrate positivity. I think you'd need a winrate of at least 1BB/100 over half a million hands to be sure beyond a reasonable doubt that such a player is winning. Players who run like that tend to be 1 or 2 tabling for less than a handful of hours a week.
I hear that there are some really solid winning players at mid stakes who run like 35/10/4.0, doing so mainly to exploit HUD using taggs, but 60/10 at microstakes isn't a winning formula.
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yeaaa no.
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