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jyms
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11-07-2007, 04:00 AM
Post subject: How do I fix this leak?
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#1 (permalink)
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Since Sunday
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Play for FREE and practice your game at...
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grnydrowave2
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Showin' mah Pokemans
Posts: 651
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Play more hands? I'm guessing that's a 4k-5k hand sample. It'll even out eventually.
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<SrslySirius> Hal Lubarsky, my nemesis.
<SaltLick> are you seriously losing to a blind guy
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Dude where did you get that, that's awesome.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Shifubowa
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 193
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Get A Flop-A-Set-Ometer Here
My setometer is where it should be after 20k hands. It also tells you some other interesting stats. In hands that went to showdown I have had AA vs KK 8 times and won 7 and I have only had KK vs AA twice losing both.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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i guess, im like, stupid and stuff.
all i see is a bell curve. someone care to share what the hell this does for you? i dont even see the point of the graph.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Shifubowa
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 193
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This is mine over the last session and is a small sample and not as many hands as Trainers graph. I have flopped more sets than expected. If the blue bit is bigger than the red bit you have hit more sets than expected when holding PPs. Over Trainers sample he could of expected to hit 24 sets but has only flopped 16. Over my entire database the graph would be more or less split 50/50.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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thank you.
so, what you are saying is the blue is what actually happened, and the red is what the math says should have happened.
in jym's case, he ran rather dry, and should expect to hit some sets to balance things out (mathematically speaking he should have hit around 24 sets). but, you ran hot, and may go into a dry spell.
am i following correctly?
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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Are you praying optimally every night??
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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Shifubowa
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 193
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
so, what you are saying is the blue is what actually happened, and the red is what the math says should have happened.
in jym's case, he ran rather dry, and should expect to hit some sets to balance things out (mathematically speaking he should have hit around 24 sets). but, you ran hot, and may go into a dry spell.
am i following correctly?
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That is correct. However the red is not what the math says should have happened. If blue is bigger than red you run hot, red bigger than blue is bad luck and if it is as maths says then the red and blue will be of equal size. Here is my graph of ~20k hands where it has evened out (although I am slightly luckier at flopping sets to date.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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gotcha, thx.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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This prog should be used after a decent sample size to get a realistic view of how one is running. If you think you are poker god, check this thing out first...you probably are just running hot. If you are on a downswing check it out to see if you are just getting hit by bad luck or mostly just playing bad.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
Posts: 1,434
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Good news Trainer, you have < 2% chance of running that bad with sets for that long. I'd like to know how many standard deviations that is, but I can't remember shit from statistics class.
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
This prog should be used after a decent sample size to get a realistic view of how one is running. If you think you are poker god, check this thing out first...you probably are just running hot. If you are on a downswing...you prolly just suck.
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FYP. j/k
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Silly String
Good news Trainer, you have < 2% chance of running that bad with sets for that long. I'd like to know how many standard deviations that is, but I can't remember shit from statistics class.
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wow. theres like a class on this stuff? wow. where do i sign up? or, do i like have to go to community college and stuff?
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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70k sample.
No wonder i run bad?
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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someone just tell me how much this equates to in dollars, considering its nearly all 1/2 and 2/4?
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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edited by me
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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grnydrowave2
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Showin' mah Pokemans
Posts: 651
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
someone just tell me how much this equates to in dollars, considering its nearly all 1/2 and 2/4?
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That really depends on your average profit from sets, doesn't it?
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<SrslySirius> Hal Lubarsky, my nemesis.
<SaltLick> are you seriously losing to a blind guy
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by grnydrowave2
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
someone just tell me how much this equates to in dollars, considering its nearly all 1/2 and 2/4?
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That really depends on your average profit from sets, doesn't it? |
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Didn't we decide a long time ago, that the 15x rule was based on our average profit in sets? So I would think you can base it on the fact that calling a 4xBB raise to have 15:1 for a set would mean approx. 60BB's. Would this be reasonable? So even at 4 sets under expectation, would you not be running 240BB's under as well? This is all speculation, and if someone has other ideas, I would love to hear them.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
Didn't we decide a long time ago, that the 15x rule was based on our average profit in sets? So I would think you can base it on the fact that calling a 4xBB raise to have 15:1 for a set would mean approx. 60BB's. Would this be reasonable? So even at 4 sets under expectation, would you not be running 240BB's under as well? This is all speculation, and if someone has other ideas, I would love to hear them.
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theoretically this sounds right. in reality it depends heavily on each players ability to extract said 60bbs.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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is it really worth finding out
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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Clar17y
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Getting coolered.
Posts: 142
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I run hawt
Clar
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grnydrowave2
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Showin' mah Pokemans
Posts: 651
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When did the 10x rule become the 15x rule?
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<SrslySirius> Hal Lubarsky, my nemesis.
<SaltLick> are you seriously losing to a blind guy
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Since you need to use implied odds with NL instead of pot odds.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by grnydrowave2
When did the 10x rule become the 15x rule?
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about 2 years ago
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Cocco_Bill
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 1,254
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WTF?!
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
WTF?!
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LOL COCO BILL WINS 300K A YEAR AND RUNS BAD
LOLOLOL FUCKING IRONY!!!!!!!!
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
WTF?!
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i wonder if this calculates only the flops you actually see with PP's, or if it counts when you fold a pp pre but would have flopped a set? that seems kind of dumb, but that might explain your graph if your getting 3-bet out of a bunch of pots preflop.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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grnydrowave2
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Showin' mah Pokemans
Posts: 651
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
Quote:
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Originally Posted by grnydrowave2
When did the 10x rule become the 15x rule?
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about 2 years ago |
Yeah... I never got that memo. So if we buy in for 50bbs we have to fold 22-99 to a standard raise?
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<SrslySirius> Hal Lubarsky, my nemesis.
<SaltLick> are you seriously losing to a blind guy
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Cocco_Bill
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 1,254
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by grnydrowave2
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
Quote:
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Originally Posted by grnydrowave2
When did the 10x rule become the 15x rule?
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about 2 years ago |
Yeah... I never got that memo. So if we buy in for 50bbs we have to fold 22-99 to a standard raise? |
all those hands(esp 77-99) have more than set value
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Cocco_Bill
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 1,254
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
WTF?!
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i wonder if this calculates only the flops you actually see with PP's, or if it counts when you fold a pp pre but would have flopped a set? that seems kind of dumb, but that might explain your graph if your getting 3-bet out of a bunch of pots preflop. |
It calculates on flops seen w pocket pairs. From the download page "The first point to notice is that I was dealt a total of 1557 pocket pairs but only saw the flop 1042 times and flopped a Set 101 times. The graph on the right indicates that 101 was a relatively low figure given that we saw a flop 1042 times."
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Shifubowa
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 193
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
i wonder if this calculates only the flops you actually see with PP's, or if it counts when you fold a pp pre but would have flopped a set?
that seems kind of dumb, but that might explain your graph if your getting 3-bet out of a bunch of pots preflop.
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PPs where flop is not seen (either folded or uncalled raises) are not included in the calcs for the graph. It is purely worked out on flops seen with PPs versus sets flopped with those hands.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Make Sets Get Paid is a fallacy. They have been lying to us.
Ok so I fixed the leak, now tell me how to get paid.1200 hands tonight.
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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Avoid oversets?
beautifully lacking is "set vs made straight/flush on flop" stats
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
Quote:
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VHS is like a book and a book is like a stack of kindles.
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Hey, I'm in a movie!
http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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The Flop-a-setometer as well as PokerEV DO NOT demonstrate whether or not you are running well or poorly. There is soooooo much more to luck than what the current software calculates. You can run bad on sets, KK vs AA, all-in equity, yet STILL be running ridiculously hot. I've had PokerEV graphs that said I was running waaaaay above expectation, yet I was down in money simply because I was actually getting tons of other types of ill-luck.
These software do not account for being outflopped, not hitting draws and folding, being pushed out of pots due to other player actions, what of villian's range your bluffs are against, hitting hands vs certain players, etc. Hitting hands against donkeys instead of regs is so so so much more valuable than hitting more than your share of sets or aces or what have you in non-committed pots vs non-donkeys.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
The Flop-a-setometer as well as PokerEV DO NOT demonstrate whether or not you are running well or poorly. There is soooooo much more to luck than what the current software calculates. You can run bad on sets, KK vs AA, all-in equity, yet STILL be running ridiculously hot. I've had PokerEV graphs that said I was running waaaaay above expectation, yet I was down in money simply because I was actually getting tons of other types of ill-luck.
These software do not account for being outflopped, not hitting draws and folding, being pushed out of pots due to other player actions, what of villian's range your bluffs are against, hitting hands vs certain players, etc. Hitting hands against donkeys instead of regs is so so so much more valuable than hitting more than your share of sets or aces or what have you in non-committed pots vs non-donkeys.
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Ding ding ding. Excellent post.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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looshle
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High Card
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 10
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can't even decipher this graph
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