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how do i factor in fold equity?

  
 
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littleogre
Old 05-28-2010, 07:03 PM     Post subject: how do i factor in fold equity? #1 (permalink)  

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 say villan bets turn and from studying his habits in hem we guesstimate that he will fold 38 percent of the time if we raise and 3-bet shove 12 percent of the time and call the other 50% of the time what kinda equity do we need in our hand to make betting profitable.? Also i would like to know the math for figuring it out. As in i need help.
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dneureiter
Old 05-28-2010, 07:17 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Going to simplify a bit.

#1: we need to know pot size/betsize. I'll make these up.

Say the pot is 1.00 on the turn, your opp leads for 0.40

You are debating to raise pot to 1.40.

#2 [I assume you instafold here when 3bet?]


so:

.38 (percentage of folds) * 1.40 (amount in pot) = +.53
.50 (called) pot is 3.80 * your equity (x) =
.12 (you are 3-bet) you lose the 1.40 you raise = -.17


This means you need to make up are .53-.17= +.36
you raise costs you 1.40 - .36= 1.04
you need to make up this $1.04 in showdown equity.

.50 (P of seeing river) * 3.80= 1.90. you need 1.04/1.90= 55% equity

Did I fail the maths? Anyone? Just thought I'd try.

If you raise smaller on turn but can get equal fold equity you obviously will need less showdown equity.
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littleogre
Old 05-28-2010, 07:58 PM #3 (permalink)  

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 i think i get the math but shouldn't fold equity make it profitable to vet hands with less then 50% equity? I'm a little confused as to why we need better then 50% EQ
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spoonitnow
Old 05-28-2010, 08:00 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre View Post
i think i get the math but shouldn't fold equity make it profitable to vet hands with less then 50% equity? I'm a little confused as to why we need better then 50% EQ
Yes
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
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NightGizmo
Old 05-28-2010, 08:13 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I get a different answer:

EV(folds) = +.53
EV(3bets) = -.17

If he calls, the amount you are trying to win is the pot + the money he puts in, not including your raise. So, for the EV calculations of a call/win the pot is 1.40 + 1 = 2.40.
For the EV calcs of a call/fold, the amount you lose is 1.40. I'm using "x" as our equity percentage.

EV(calls and win) = 50% * 2.40 * x = 1.2x
EV(calls and loses) = 50% * -1.40 * (1 - x) = .7x - .7

.53 - .17 + 1.2x + .7x - .7 > 0
1.9x > .34
x > 17.9%

So you need to have 17.9% equity.
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JKDS
Old 05-28-2010, 08:26 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 spoonitnow's Mathematics of EV Thread

Set up an equation for EV, solve for x. Done.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 05-28-2010, 09:29 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 man i don't even do this shit and im playing 200nl and not busto yet. ur making 2nl wayyyyy harder than it needs to be.
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philly and the phanatics
Old 05-28-2010, 09:49 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 i thought you never needed over 50% equity.....correct me if im wrong?
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Old 05-28-2010, 10:08 PM #9 (permalink)  
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man i don't even do this shit and im playing 200nl and not busto yet. ur making 2nl wayyyyy harder than it needs to be.
Watch out when all us micromicro grinders make it up to the big show.We're gonna be killin' it.You can just start depositing into my account now.
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spoonitnow
Old 05-28-2010, 10:26 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
man i don't even do this shit and im playing 200nl and not busto yet. ur making 2nl wayyyyy harder than it needs to be.
Yeah this too
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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jyms
Old 05-28-2010, 10:38 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 Percentage Villain has to fold for the play to be break-even
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littleogre
Old 05-29-2010, 08:11 PM #12 (permalink)  

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 A helpful link but i'm looking for how often villain needs to fold if we already know our estimated equity. for example this. We are on the turn.
villain leads out for 50 cents
effective stacks= 5.0
total pot before we bet= 1.5
our raise size= 1.5
our estimated equity= 32 percent
villains estimated fold percentage=22%
estimated call%=50%
estimated raise%=28 percent
pot size after we raise=3
villains 3-bet size= shove.

Is it +ev to bluff? I mean there are all sorts of programs that tell you how often villain needs to fold if our equity is say 45% so why are there no programs that tell you what our EQ needs to be if we know how often they fold/call/raise?

in the above example i know we win 1.5$ 22 percent of the time or 33 cents on average from him folding. we loose 42 cents on average from him raising. Where it gets really confusing to me is when they call. Because then we need to add in our hands eq versus their river betting range.
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jyms
Old 05-29-2010, 08:16 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 Wow, your really over thinking this. First of all, under $25NL means don't account for FE ever. Second, stop thinking about anything other than equity if he folds or calls/raises together. Him raising is a whole new calculation.

Just use pot size, bet size and how often he needs to fold vs your equity if he doesn't
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littleogre
Old 05-29-2010, 08:22 PM #14 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by jyms View Post
Wow, your really over thinking this.
Perhaps but i want to build charts so that i can play perfectly versus robotic players which is most every player at 2nl. Or atleast a big chunk of them.
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jyms
Old 05-29-2010, 08:26 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 you do know a chart will make you robotic?
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JKDS
Old 05-29-2010, 09:39 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 =spoonitnow's Mathematics of EV Thread

Set up an equation for EV, solve for x. Done.

At least try it yourself. Spoon made this one big ass post that basically tells you exactly how to set something like this up...yet i dont even see that you've made an attempt at an equation. Cmon now.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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littleogre
Old 05-30-2010, 05:20 AM #17 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
=spoonitnow's Mathematics of EV Thread

Set up an equation for EV, solve for x. Done.

At least try it yourself. Spoon made this one big ass post that basically tells you exactly how to set something like this up...yet i dont even see that you've made an attempt at an equation. Cmon now.
ok i'll try but i suck at algebra just give me some time to study that thread.
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littleogre
Old 05-30-2010, 10:05 AM #18 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jyms View Post
you do know a chart will make you robotic?
I don't exactly mean a chart that tells me how to play. Just my ev in different situations.
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littleogre
Old 05-30-2010, 10:47 AM #19 (permalink)  

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 ok gonna start small and to keep things simple i'm gonna assume that our bet will be a shove.
pot =2
bet=2
P+B=4
eq=27
vill fold=40%
pf=.8

been reading that thread so i will try to solve for how much we win if he calls and we win but i'm not even sure if i remember the order of operation.

e(1-f)
e(.5)
.27(.5)=.14
Is that correct?
villain calls and he wins.

(1-.5)(1-.27)
(.5)(.73) =.37
is that correct?
trying to put it all together
EV = PF + E(1-F)(P+B) + (1-F)(1-E)(-B)
EV = .8 + .27(.5)(4) + (.5)(.73)(-2)
2.14+-.74
=
Is this correct-1.4
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littleogre
Old 05-30-2010, 11:13 AM #20 (permalink)  

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 sorry made a typo i put vill fold= .40 but used .5 in the equation
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littleogre
Old 05-30-2010, 11:23 AM #21 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 ok when i enter .8 + .27(.5)(4) + (.5)(.73)(-2) into MyAlgebra - Solve Your Algebra Problems Online it gives me .61 so why is my answer so far off?
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oskar
Old 05-30-2010, 03:09 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jyms View Post
Wow, your really over thinking this. First of all, under $25NL means don't account for FE ever. Second, stop thinking about anything other than equity if he folds or calls/raises together. Him raising is a whole new calculation.

Just use pot size, bet size and how often he needs to fold vs your equity if he doesn't
that

I don't think it's bad at all to do all this crap so you understand it, but watch out when you try to apply it because the tendency is to expect waaaay too much fold equity.

I shot myself in the foot a couple of times the last couple of days when I played some 50NL after 20000 hands of 200NL. People don't fold. Even the winningest regs are huge stations. - More so on stars than on Tilt cuz the general tendency there seems to be to supergaybet when you have the nuts and shovel in money when you have air.
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littleogre
Old 05-30-2010, 03:11 PM #23 (permalink)  

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 sorry my answer in the aboe eq is 1.4 not -1.4
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JKDS
Old 05-30-2010, 07:59 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre View Post
ok when i enter .8 + .27(.5)(4) + (.5)(.73)(-2) into MyAlgebra - Solve Your Algebra Problems Online it gives me .61 so why is my answer so far off?
dunno

.27*.5*4 = .54
.5*.73*-2 = -.73

.8 + .54 -.73 = .61

Using fold% as .5, your equation for the expectation of a shove is right. Looks like you just made a silly mistake at the end there.

Ok, now we have the ev of a shove. But you didnt want that. We want to know our equity given that villain folds F% of the time. So, this is a little trickier.

EV = PF + .... blah blah blah. Make ev 0, and keep E as E. Now rearrange the equation so we get E = ...., which will give you what you wanted to know.

Even better, keep F as F, and still solve for E, then you can get E as a function of F, meaning we can plug in different Fs and get what E we need.

Even better, rearrange that last equation so that F is a function of E instead, as we'll generally know E more often than F.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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littleogre
Old 05-30-2010, 09:34 PM #25 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
dunno

.27*.5*4 = .54
.5*.73*-2 = -.73

.8 + .54 -.73 = .61

Using fold% as .5, your equation for the expectation of a shove is right. Looks like you just made a silly mistake at the end there.

Ok, now we have the ev of a shove. But you didnt want that. We want to know our equity given that villain folds F% of the time. So, this is a little trickier.

EV = PF + .... blah blah blah. Make ev 0, and keep E as E. Now rearrange the equation so we get E = ...., which will give you what you wanted to know.

Even better, keep F as F, and still solve for E, then you can get E as a function of F, meaning we can plug in different Fs and get what E we need.

Even better, rearrange that last equation so that F is a function of E instead, as we'll generally know E more often than F.
Yea i think i mucked the order of operation. I'm starting simple i haven't done algebra in years.
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littleogre
Old 05-31-2010, 08:44 PM #26 (permalink)  

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 ok if i do a basic shove equation to get my ev of when he folds or calls and checks the river. ten a separate eq for when he raises and i fold then subtract the money l loose from folding from the money i win from him folding / me calling and winning will that work? Example lets say i just raised 5 into a 5 pot and have determined that this move wins 3 dollars from him folding/ calling and me winning. I've also determined that he will raise 20 percent of the time so i lose 1 buck from when he raises .20(5)=1
so my over all ev of bluffing is 2 bucks. This can never be exact though because it doesn't account for the times that i improve my hand and get his entire stack or when i improve and he gets my entire stack. I think the shove formula is likely good for deciding whether or not to bluff shove the turn or river. The more i think about it the more i think it becomes to complicated when money is left behind. Atleast for me it does. You would need a formula that thinks about all the following
pot size after vills bet
pot size after our raise
our raise size
vills call%
vills fold%
how often dos he check the river after calling a turn raise
how often does he shove the river after calling a turn raise
how often does he call a river shove from us .
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